[Eoas-seminar] COAPS Short Seminar Series

[eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu]

COAPS Short Seminar Series
11:00 AM July 13th
Attend F2F (in 255 Research A) or Virtually (via Zoom)
https://fsu.zoom.us/j/92268262553

Meeting ID: 922 6826 2553
Talks are 12 minutes long with an additional 8 minutes for questions.

Talk #1: Evaluating HWRF's Simulated Hurricane Boundary Layer Against Tail Doppler Radar Data Throughout Intensification

By Collin Cruz

Description: This study uses tail Doppler radar (TDR) observations from four rapidly intensifying hurricanes, Harvey (2017), Michael (2018), Ida (2021), and Ian (2022), to characterize the shear-relative low-level inflow structure of the tropical cyclone boundary layer. These observed metrics are then compared storm-by-storm, grouped by shear quadrant and intensity, against HWRF model output to identify where the model's simulated inner-core and boundary-layer structure diverges from observations during rapid intensification in hopes of improving these models intensification predictions in the future.

Talk #2: On the Emerging Influence of Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature on the Variability of Northeast Monsoon Rainfall over the Southern Peninsular India

By Sthitapragya Ray

Description: The northeast monsoon supplies nearly half of the annual rainfall over southern peninsular India, yet its interannual variability is less understood than that of the southwest monsoon. Previous studies have identified an emergent covariability between northeast monsoon rainfall and a sea surface temperature gradient between the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean and the eastern Bay of Bengal. In the present study, this relationship has been re-examined using longer and more recent observational and reanalysis datasets alongside wavelet coherence and spectral decomposition techniques. Results show that the previously reported emergence largely results from intermittent sub-decadal (2–10 years) coherence, which does not sustain in recent decades. However, a distinct multidecadal coherence pattern between northeast monsoon rainfall and the sea surface temperature of the eastern Bay of Bengal emerges robustly from the mid-1980s onward. The sub-decadal coherence is primarily driven by equatorial oceanic Rossby and Kelvin waves in the eastern Indian Ocean that influence the upper-ocean stratification and the thermal sensitivity of the surface layer. In contrast, the multidecadal coherence between northeast monsoon rainfall and the sea surface temperature of the eastern Bay of Bengal dominant after 1990 is linked to basin-wide Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies largely driven by Pacific decadal variability and expressed through a suppression of near-surface winds over the Bay of Bengal. Collectively, these results demonstrate that covariability between northeast monsoon rainfall and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature is strongly non-stationary, with distinct physical mechanisms operating across different timescales. The findings of the present study bear strong implications for seasonal-to-decadal diagnosis, prediction, and forecast of northeast monsoon rainfall, highlighting the need for models to account for drivers spanning a broad range of spectral regimes and their associated air-sea coupling modulations.
NOTE: Please feel free to forward/share this invitation with other groups/disciplines that might be interested in this talk/topic. All are welcome to attend.
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