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ORGANIZER;CN=Mark Bourassa:mailto:mbourassa@fsu.edu
DESCRIPTION;LANGUAGE=en-US:COAPS Short Seminar Series\n11:00 AM July 13th\n
 Attend F2F (in 255 Research A) or Virtually (via Zoom)\nhttps://fsu.zoom.u
 s/j/92268262553\n\nMeeting ID: 922 6826 2553\nTalks are 12 minutes long wi
 th an additional 8 minutes for questions.\n\nTalk #1: Evaluating HWRF's Si
 mulated Hurricane Boundary Layer Against Tail Doppler Radar Data Throughou
 t Intensification\n\nBy Collin Cruz\n\nDescription: This study uses tail D
 oppler radar (TDR) observations from four rapidly intensifying hurricanes\
 , Harvey (2017)\, Michael (2018)\, Ida (2021)\, and Ian (2022)\, to charac
 terize the shear-relative low-level inflow structure of the tropical cyclo
 ne boundary layer. These observed metrics are then compared storm-by-storm
 \, grouped by shear quadrant and intensity\, against HWRF model output to 
 identify where the model's simulated inner-core and boundary-layer structu
 re diverges from observations during rapid intensification in hopes of imp
 roving these models intensification predictions in the future.\n\nTalk #2:
  On the Emerging Influence of Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature on the 
 Variability of Northeast Monsoon Rainfall over the Southern Peninsular Ind
 ia\n\nBy Sthitapragya Ray\n\nDescription: The northeast monsoon supplies n
 early half of the annual rainfall over southern peninsular India\, yet its
  interannual variability is less understood than that of the southwest mon
 soon. Previous studies have identified an emergent covariability between n
 ortheast monsoon rainfall and a sea surface temperature gradient between t
 he eastern equatorial Indian Ocean and the eastern Bay of Bengal. In the p
 resent study\, this relationship has been re-examined using longer and mor
 e recent observational and reanalysis datasets alongside wavelet coherence
  and spectral decomposition techniques. Results show that the previously r
 eported emergence largely results from intermittent sub-decadal (2–10 ye
 ars) coherence\, which does not sustain in recent decades. However\, a dis
 tinct multidecadal coherence pattern between northeast monsoon rainfall an
 d the sea surface temperature of the eastern Bay of Bengal emerges robustl
 y from the mid-1980s onward. The sub-decadal coherence is primarily driven
  by equatorial oceanic Rossby and Kelvin waves in the eastern Indian Ocean
  that influence the upper-ocean stratification and the thermal sensitivity
  of the surface layer. In contrast\, the multidecadal coherence between no
 rtheast monsoon rainfall and the sea surface temperature of the eastern Ba
 y of Bengal dominant after 1990 is linked to basin-wide Indian Ocean sea s
 urface temperature anomalies largely driven by Pacific decadal variability
  and expressed through a suppression of near-surface winds over the Bay of
  Bengal. Collectively\, these results demonstrate that covariability betwe
 en northeast monsoon rainfall and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature is 
 strongly non-stationary\, with distinct physical mechanisms operating acro
 ss different timescales. The findings of the present study bear strong imp
 lications for seasonal-to-decadal diagnosis\, prediction\, and forecast of
  northeast monsoon rainfall\, highlighting the need for models to account 
 for drivers spanning a broad range of spectral regimes and their associate
 d air-sea coupling modulations.\nNOTE: Please feel free to forward/share t
 his invitation with other groups/disciplines that might be interested in t
 his talk/topic. All are welcome to attend.\n
UID:040000008200E00074C5B7101A82E008000000003E85485B9810DD01000000000000000
 0100000008944CAF78DCEF647AE1860CF4CE356F0
SUMMARY;LANGUAGE=en-US:COAPS Short Seminar Series
DTSTART;TZID=Eastern Standard Time:20260713T110000
DTEND;TZID=Eastern Standard Time:20260713T120000
CLASS:PUBLIC
PRIORITY:5
DTSTAMP:20260710T181724Z
TRANSP:OPAQUE
STATUS:CONFIRMED
SEQUENCE:1
LOCATION;LANGUAGE=en-US:https://fsu.zoom.us/j/92268262553
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