[Eoas-seminar] Diss Dfns-John Uehling

[eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu]

Just a reminder of today's diss dfns for John Uehling at 3:30PM.  The 
event will stream via Zoom:

https://fsu.zoom.us/j/97017061069

Please remember to visit the calendar 
<https://www.eoas.fsu.edu/calendar/> for full and updated info.

Diss Dfns--John Uehling
Rm is reserved from 3:05 PM to 6:05 PM; defense begins at 3:30 PM
(Zoom Meeting: https://fsu.zoom.us/j/97017061069)

MET Dfns entitled "Characterizing the Northern Australian Rainy season 
from the large-scale to the local scale in the current and the future 
climate"

Chair:  Dr. V. Misra

Abstract:
The northern Australian rainy season is part of the Asian-Australian 
monsoon system and occurs during the Austral summer across the northern 
regions of the continent.  The Australian monsoon is responsible for 
most of the annual rainfall budget for the region, thus having a 
comprehensive understanding of the rainy season is of vital importance 
for socio-economic and environmental considerations.

To gain a complete picture of the Australian rainy season, which mostly 
overlaps with the monsoon season, it is important to have a robust 
definition of the rainy season.  In this dissertation, we objectively 
define onset and demise of the rainy season, locally (at a given grid 
point of the observed rainfall analysis) from the definition of 
aggregate northern Australian rainy season. This definition allows to 
account for the variations of the length of the rainy season in addition 
to the variations in the daily rain rate, which together contribute to 
the seasonal variability of the rainfall. We further analyze the 
variations of the local onset and demise dates, length and seasonal 
rainfall anomaly of the northern Australian rainy season from the 
intraseasonal to the secular scales. The results from this study 
uniquely highlight the spatial heterogeneity of the seasonal evolution 
of the rainy season and its variability.

This study then examines the fidelity of the Coupled Model 
Intercomparison Project version 6 (CMIP6) models from their historical 
simulations to simulate these observed features. The analyzed CMIP6 
simulations over the northern Australian region have shown promise that 
in some of the features of the rainy season that we identify in this 
study.  For example, the onset and the demise dates of the rainy season 
are reasonable and its association with El Niño and the Southern 
Oscillation is also verifiable. The CMIP6 model projections for Shared 
Socio-economic Pathway (SSP126 or green pathway) and the high emission 
SSP585 (or fossil-fueled pathway) scenarios towards the end of the 21st 
century were independently analyzed to show the impacts of anthropogenic 
climate change on the northern Australian region. Our broad conclusion 
from this analysis is that the impact of the anthropogenic change on the 
northern Australian rainy season is statistically insignificant. 
However, it should be noted that these CMIP6 models displayed poor 
fidelity in simulating the observed linear trends of the 20th century 
northern Australian rainy season.

When
     Thu Oct 28, 2021 3:30pm – 5pm Eastern Time - New York
Where
     RM 1044 EOA


-- 

*Jimmy Pastrano*

*/Coordinator of Graduate Studies/*

*/Earth, Ocean & Atmospheric Science/*

*3008-C EOAS Bldg*

*Tallahassee, FL 32306-4520***
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