[Eoas-seminar] Undergraduate honors thesis (Meteorology) defense seminar, April 13th at 3.30 p.m.

[eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu]

Meteorology Seminar
Parker Beasley
Undergraduate Honors Thesis (Meteorology) Candidate

Title: Validation of IMERG rainfall to monitor onset and demise of the rainy season over Peninsular Florida

Major Professor: Dr. V. Misra

Date: April 13th, 2021                   Time: 3:30 PM

Location: Zoom Meeting (URL: https://fsu.zoom.us/j/92365480184)

Abstract
This study was motivated to assess the fidelity of gridded, remotely sensed rainfall analysis for real time monitoring of the wet season over the five water management districts (WMDs) of Florida. All five WMDs have a significant fraction of the annual rainfall occurring in the wet season. Therefore, monitoring and anticipating its variations from year to year would be critical to manage water resources in the WMDs.
In this study we analyzed the fidelity of the Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Mission version 6 (IMERG) late run at 12 hour latency and final run at 3.5 month latency with respect to the rain gauge based analysis from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC). The 3.5 month latency product ingests a larger volume of data for analysis and uses a more rigorous analysis technique, which would lead to the anticipation of a better rainfall analysis than the former 12 hour latency product.
            Our study finds that indeed the 3.5 month latency product of IMERG reduces the RMSE of the seasonal rainfall of the wet season systematically over all five WMDs relative to the 12 hour latency product. However, in terms of the diagnosis of the onset and the demise dates, and the seasonal length of the wet season, the results are somewhat mixed. In some WMDs the RMSE of the onset date, demise date, and the seasonal length of the 3.5 month latency dataset shows a deterioration relative to the 12 month latency (e.g., Southwest Florida, St. Johns River, and Suwannee River). Over Northwest Florida WMD, the RMSE of the 3.5 month latency shows a marginal improvement over the 12 hour latency in these parameters of the wet season. Similarly, the correlations of these three parameters of the wet season with the CPC rainfall dataset are higher in the 12 hour latency compared to 3.5 month latency datasets over Southwest Florida and St. Johns River WMD. But in all instances, the correlations between the 12 hour latency dataset and the CPC dataset for all parameters of the wet season over all five water management districts are distinctly significant at 95% confidence interval according to t-test. Therefore, despite the relatively larger RMSE than the 3.5 month latency dataset in some of these parameters, the 12 hour latency product of IMERG may be reasonable to use for monitoring the evolution of the wet season over all five water management districts of Florida.

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