[Eoas-seminar] Meteorology MS Defense for Chesnea Skeen, Monday, November 2, 2020, 9:00 AM, on Zoom 8187403932

[eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu]

Meteorology Seminar

Chesnea Skeen

M.S. Meteorology Candidate





Title:  AREA- AND POINT-BASED VERIFICATION OF NEW MULTI-HAZARD SEVERE WEATHER INDEX
Major Professor:  Dr. Henry Fuelberg

Date: November 2nd, 2020                                Time: 9:00 AM



Location: Zoom meeting URL: https://fsu.zoom.us/j/8187403932

ABSTRACT

Severe weather indices are empirical tools developed by meteorologists to assist in predicting severe weather. The Storm Prediction Center's (SPC) Mesoanalysis website lists 23 composite indices. They all are similar in that they calculate differences or combine parameters multiplicatively to determine the severe environment. Most of these indices prioritize a specific weather hazard type or storm convective mode. There is no severe weather index that covers multiple hazards at all severity levels.
Lead forecaster Don Van Dyke at the National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Office (WFO) in Tallahassee aimed to remedy the lack of a holistic index and developed a severe weather index that would encompass three hazards (wind, hail and tornadoes) of any severity. Van Dyke's index (DVDI) also is unique in that it adds its component parameters in the calculations, rather than multiplying them. However, no statistically robust analysis has been conducted on DVDI to show how it performs as a forecasting tool. This research evaluates the skill of DVDI as a forecasting tool, identifies strengths and weaknesses, and suggests improvements. This research conducts a verification of DVDI using combined dichotomous and spatial methods using a point-based and area-based approach.
Results show DVDI is able to predict multi-hazard severe weather with an overall POD of 0.78, which suggests DVDI to be a useful forecast tool. DVDI has proven success in predicting all three of the included hazards with a POD of 0.73-0.76. DVDI can differentiate between days with severe weather and days without severe weather with 99% confidence. Additionally, DVDI can distinguish between weak and violent tornadoes with 99% confidence. Weaknesses of DVDI include a high FAR, virtually no skill differentiating hail magnitude, and poor performance with mountainous terrain and winter season wind events.


Shel McGuire
Florida State University
Academic Program Specialist
Department of Earth, Ocean, & Atmospheric Science
1011 Academic Way, 2019 EOA Building
Tallahassee, FL 32306
850-644-8582
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