<html xmlns:v="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" xmlns:w="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:word" xmlns:m="http://schemas.microsoft.com/office/2004/12/omml" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40">
<head>
<meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=us-ascii">
<meta name="Generator" content="Microsoft Word 15 (filtered medium)">
<style><!--
/* Font Definitions */
@font-face
{font-family:SimSun;
panose-1:2 1 6 0 3 1 1 1 1 1;}
@font-face
{font-family:"Cambria Math";
panose-1:2 4 5 3 5 4 6 3 2 4;}
@font-face
{font-family:Calibri;
panose-1:2 15 5 2 2 2 4 3 2 4;}
@font-face
{font-family:Tahoma;
panose-1:2 11 6 4 3 5 4 4 2 4;}
@font-face
{font-family:"\@SimSun";
panose-1:2 1 6 0 3 1 1 1 1 1;}
@font-face
{font-family:"Monotype Corsiva";
panose-1:3 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1;}
@font-face
{font-family:Times;
panose-1:2 2 6 3 5 4 5 2 3 4;}
/* Style Definitions */
p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal
{margin:0in;
margin-bottom:.0001pt;
font-size:11.0pt;
font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;}
a:link, span.MsoHyperlink
{mso-style-priority:99;
color:#0563C1;
text-decoration:underline;}
a:visited, span.MsoHyperlinkFollowed
{mso-style-priority:99;
color:#954F72;
text-decoration:underline;}
span.EmailStyle17
{mso-style-type:personal-compose;
font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;
color:windowtext;}
p.HTMLBody, li.HTMLBody, div.HTMLBody
{mso-style-name:"HTML Body";
margin:0in;
margin-bottom:.0001pt;
text-autospace:none;
font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}
span.doublespacedcapsChar
{mso-style-name:"double_spaced_caps Char";
mso-style-link:double_spaced_caps;
font-family:SimSun;
text-transform:uppercase;}
p.doublespacedcaps, li.doublespacedcaps, div.doublespacedcaps
{mso-style-name:double_spaced_caps;
mso-style-link:"double_spaced_caps Char";
margin:0in;
margin-bottom:.0001pt;
text-align:center;
line-height:200%;
font-size:11.0pt;
font-family:SimSun;
text-transform:uppercase;}
.MsoChpDefault
{mso-style-type:export-only;
font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;}
@page WordSection1
{size:8.5in 11.0in;
margin:1.0in 1.0in 1.0in 1.0in;}
div.WordSection1
{page:WordSection1;}
--></style><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<o:shapedefaults v:ext="edit" spidmax="1026" />
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<o:shapelayout v:ext="edit">
<o:idmap v:ext="edit" data="1" />
</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]-->
</head>
<body lang="EN-US" link="#0563C1" vlink="#954F72">
<div class="WordSection1">
<p class="HTMLBody" align="center" style="text-align:center;line-height:115%"><b><u><span style="font-size:26.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Monotype Corsiva"">Meteorology Seminar<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p class="HTMLBody" align="center" style="text-align:center;line-height:115%"><b><span style="font-size:28.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Monotype Corsiva"">Chesnea Skeen</span></b><span style="font-size:28.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Monotype Corsiva""><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="HTMLBody" align="center" style="text-align:center"><span style="font-size:28.0pt;font-family:"Monotype Corsiva"">M.S. Meteorology Candidate<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="HTMLBody"><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="doublespacedcaps" align="left" style="text-align:left"><b><u><span style="font-size:14.0pt;line-height:200%"><o:p><span style="text-decoration:none"> </span></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p class="doublespacedcaps" align="left" style="text-align:left"><b><u><span style="font-size:14.0pt;line-height:200%">Title</span></u>:</b> AREA- AND POINT-BASED VERIFICATION OF NEW MULTI-HAZARD SEVERE WEATHER INDEX<span style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:200%"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><u><span style="font-size:14.0pt">Major Professor</span></u></b><b><span style="font-size:14.0pt">: Dr. Henry Fuelberg</span></b><b><u><span style="font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times",serif"><o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:black"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><u><span style="font-size:14.0pt">Date</span></u></b><b><span style="font-size:14.0pt">:</span></b><span style="font-size:14.0pt"> November 2nd, 2020
<b><u>Time</u>: 9:00 AM</b></span><span style="font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="HTMLBody"><b><o:p> </o:p></b></p>
<p class="HTMLBody"><b><u><span style="font-size:14.0pt">Location</span></u></b><b><span style="font-size:14.0pt">:
</span></b><span style="font-size:14.0pt">Zoom meeting URL: <a href="https://fsu.zoom.us/j/8187403932">
https://fsu.zoom.us/j/8187403932</a></span><b><o:p></o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center"><b><o:p> </o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;line-height:115%"><b>ABSTRACT<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;line-height:115%"><b><o:p> </o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:.5in;line-height:115%">Severe weather indices are empirical tools developed by meteorologists to assist in predicting severe weather. The Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Mesoanalysis website lists 23 composite indices.
They all are similar in that they calculate differences or combine parameters multiplicatively to determine the severe environment. Most of these indices prioritize a specific weather hazard type or storm convective mode. There is no severe weather index that
covers multiple hazards at all severity levels. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:.25in;line-height:115%">Lead forecaster Don Van Dyke at the National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Office (WFO) in Tallahassee aimed to remedy the lack of a holistic index and developed a severe weather index
that would encompass three hazards (wind, hail and tornadoes) of any severity. Van Dyke’s index (DVDI) also is unique in that it adds its component parameters in the calculations, rather than multiplying them. However, no statistically robust analysis has
been conducted on DVDI to show how it performs as a forecasting tool. This research evaluates the skill of DVDI as a forecasting tool, identifies strengths and weaknesses, and suggests improvements. This research conducts a verification of DVDI using combined
dichotomous and spatial methods using a point-based and area-based approach.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:.5in;line-height:115%">Results show DVDI is able to predict multi-hazard severe weather with an overall POD of 0.78, which suggests DVDI to be a useful forecast tool. DVDI has proven success in predicting all three of
the included hazards with a POD of 0.73-0.76. DVDI can differentiate between days with severe weather and days without severe weather with 99% confidence. Additionally, DVDI can distinguish between weak and violent tornadoes with 99% confidence. Weaknesses
of DVDI include a high FAR, virtually no skill differentiating hail magnitude, and poor performance with mountainous terrain and winter season wind events.
<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Shel McGuire<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Florida State University<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Academic Program Specialist<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Department of Earth, Ocean, & Atmospheric Science<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">1011 Academic Way, 2019 EOA Building<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Tallahassee, FL 32306<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">850-644-8582<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">To make an appointment please login to my.fsu.edu and choose the Campus Connect (CC) icon<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
</body>
</html>