[Eoas-seminar] PO candidate seminar today at 3pm in Room 1044

[eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu]

Dear all,

Please join us for a seminar at 3 pm in Room 1044 by Dr. Liping Zhang, who is a candidate for our physical oceanography faculty position. The title and abstract of her talk are provided below.

Thank you.

Best wishes,
Junhong


Title: Multiyear to decadal sea level predictability in the North Atlantic Ocean and along the U.S. East Coast

Speaker: Dr. Liping Zhang
Abstract:
         Sea-level rise and multiyear to decadal sea-level variability pose increasing risks of flooding and erosion for coastal communities along the U.S. East Coast. Here we investigate the predictability of sea level and coastal flood frequency using a combination of observations, dynamical climate predictions, high-resolution ocean modeling, and explainable deep learning. Initialized decadal climate predictions show that sea-level variability over the North Atlantic is skillfully predictable several years in advance. A basin-scale upward trend associated with increasing greenhouse gases provides robust predictability up to a decade ahead. Additional multiyear predictability arises from low-frequency variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which modulates regional sea level and flood frequency.
        Tide-gauge observations reveal pronounced multidecadal sea-level fluctuations along the U.S. Northeast Coast (USNEC) superimposed on a long-term rising trend. These multidecadal variations are largely associated with low-frequency variability of the AMOC. Using an initialized dynamical downscaling prediction system with 1/12° ocean resolution, we show that flood frequency along the USNEC can be predicted on multiyear timescales, with detrended flood frequency exhibiting predictive skill up to three years.
        Along the U.S. Southeast Coast (USSEC), dynamic sea level has risen rapidly since 2010, increasing coastal flooding frequency. Using both initialized decadal hindcasts and explainable deep learning trained on coupled climate simulations, we demonstrate significant predictive skill for USSEC sea-level variability several years in advance. Attribution analyses identify two primary sources of predictability: buoyancy-driven multidecadal variability of the AMOC and wind-driven circulation variability associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Together, these predictable large-scale climate processes provide a physical basis for multiyear prediction of coastal sea level and flooding frequency along the U.S. East Coast, offering potential societal benefits for coastal planning and adaptation.

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