From eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu Sun Mar 1 14:02:21 2026 From: eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu (eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu) Date: Sun, 1 Mar 2026 19:02:21 +0000 Subject: [Eoas-seminar] [Seminar-announce] Scientific Computing Colloquium with Ming Cai Message-ID: "Principle-Based Climate Feedback Framework and Its Application for Adept Predictions of Global Warming from Climate Mean States" Ming Cai Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science (EOAS) Florida State University (FSU) Wednesday, Mar 04, 2026, Schedule: * 3:00 to 3:30 PM Eastern Time (US and Canada) ? Nespresso & Teatime - 417 DSL Commons * 3:30 to 4:30 PM Eastern Time (US and Canada) ? Colloquium - 499 DSL Seminar Room Abstract: Distinguishing anthropogenic warming from natural variability in observations and reducing uncertainty in global warming projections by climate models remain critical challenges for climate scientists. In our work, we present a groundbreaking principle-based framework for adept predictions of the global mean warming and its spatial pattern in response to external energy perturbations from climate mean states without running climate models or relying on statistical trend analysis. The principle-based framework is built on a climate feedback kernel, referred to as the "energy gain kernel" (EGK). EGK is directly derived from physical principles without additional definition. EGK captures the temperature feedback?s amplification of energy perturbations initiated both from external forcing and internal non-temperature feedback processes. EGK allows for disentangling positive and negative aspects of temperature feedback, rectifying the common misconception in existing temperature kernels that portray temperature feedback as predominantly negative. We extract the information of surface energy amplification by non-temperature feedback from the ratio of downward longwave energy emission from the atmosphere to solar energy absorbed by the surface in climate mean states. The product of amplification rates by temperature and non-temperature feedbacks corresponds to the total amplification of energy perturbations at the surface caused by CO2 increasing. When applied to the observed climate mean state of 1980-2000, our framework accurately predicts the global warming observed from 1980-2000 to 2000-2020, with a prediction of 0.403 K compared to an observed value of 0.414 K. For the first time, this study confirms that observed global warming is driven by human-caused greenhouse gas emissions, independently of climate model simulations and statistical analyses. This study also tested the framework under two assumed CO2 scenarios: a sudden quadrupling of CO2 and a 1% annual increase in CO2. The framework accurately reproduced the global warming projections for each of these scenarios from CMIP6 models, with smaller uncertainty in warming predictions compared to CMIP6 models. These results highlight the new framework's reliability and broad applicability. Additional colloquium details can be found here. https://www.sc.fsu.edu/news-and-events/colloquium/1908-colloquium-with-ming-cai-2026-03-04 Please feel free to forward/share this invitation with other groups/disciplines that might be interested in this talk/topic. All are welcome to attend. NOTE: In-person attendance is requested in our 499 Dirac Science Library (DSL) Seminar Room. Zoom access is intended for external (non-departmental) participants only. https://fsu.zoom.us/j/94273595552 Meeting # 942 7359 5552 ? Colloquium recordings will be made available here, https://www.sc.fsu.edu/colloquium -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: not available Type: text/calendar Size: 6395 bytes Desc: not available URL: -------------- next part -------------- _______________________________________________ SC-Seminar-announce mailing list SC-Seminar-announce at lists.fsu.edu https://lists.fsu.edu/mailman/listinfo/sc-seminar-announce From eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu Mon Mar 2 12:35:33 2026 From: eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu (eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu) Date: Mon, 2 Mar 2026 17:35:33 +0000 Subject: [Eoas-seminar] MS Defense - Tekoe Message-ID: Good afternoon all! Please join us for Abraham Tekoe's MS Defense on Tuesday, March 10th from 3-5 PM in EOA 1044. Title: Efficiency of Tropical Cyclogenesis in Large-Scale Circulations: Climatology of Monsoon Gyres and Tropical Cyclogenesis in the Western North Pacific Name: Abraham Tekoe Date: March 10th 3:00-5:00 PM Major Professor: Chelsea Nam Location: EOA 1044 Abstract: Monsoon gyres (MGs) are large-scale cyclonic circulation systems embedded within the western North Pacific monsoon trough and are often associated with tropical cyclone (TC) formation. Despite their importance as precursors to tropical cyclogenesis, the factors controlling the timing of TC formation within MG environments remain poorly understood. This study examines how the structure and horizontal scale of MGs influence the evolution of embedded disturbances and the timing of TC genesis during 1980-2024. An objective detection algorithm was developed using ERA5 reanalysis data to identify MG events, and each gyre was analyzed using a normalized coordinate framework to compare environments across gyres of different sizes. Convective activity was diagnosed using GridSat-B1 infrared satellite data, while TC formation was identified using IBTrACS best-track records. Results show that MGs are strongly linked to TC formation, with about 91% of detected gyres producing at least one tropical cyclone. However, the timing of genesis varies systematically with gyre size: larger gyres tend to produce TCs later than smaller ones. Thermodynamic conditions such as sea surface temperature and humidity are generally favorable across cases, suggesting that dynamical processes-particularly vortex consolidation and vertical alignment-play a more important role in determining when genesis occurs. A detailed case study of Invest 95W (Typhoon Tapah 2019) illustrates how TC formation can be delayed within very large MG environments. Overall, the results support a two-scale framework in which monsoon gyres provide a favorable background environment, while the timing of tropical cyclogenesis depends primarily on the dynamical evolution of embedded vortices. Best, Adea Adea Arrison Sr. Academic Program Specialist Department of Earth, Ocean & Atmospheric Science [cid:image001.png at 01DCAA41.0FBB46C0] -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image001.png Type: image/png Size: 3433 bytes Desc: image001.png URL: From eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu Mon Mar 2 13:13:22 2026 From: eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu (eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu) Date: Mon, 2 Mar 2026 18:13:22 +0000 Subject: [Eoas-seminar] MS Defense - Johnson Message-ID: Good afternoon, Please join us for Ali Johnson's MS Defense on Wednesday, March 11th from 9-11 AM. Title: EFFECTS OF INUNDATION ON LOGGERHEAD SEA TURTLE (CARETTA CARETTA) HATCHLING MORPHOLOGY, FITNESS, AND INCUBATION TEMPERATURE Name: Ali Johnson Time: Mar 11, 2026 09:00 AM Eastern Time (US and Canada) Major Professor: Mariana Fuentes Join Zoom Meeting https://fsu.zoom.us/j/95712100606 Meeting ID: 957 1210 0606 Abstract: Sea turtle embryos are vulnerable to inundation (i.e., standing water in the nest) as it can lead to changes in nest temperature and oxygen deprivation from water filling air spaces in the nest. Inundation rates are expected to increase as sea level rises and tropical storms intensify with climate change, potentially impacting the incubating environment, incubation duration and hatchling phenotype and fitness. Increased water in the nest is known to potentially reduce hatch success, and influence hatchling phenotype, but the specific effects of measured inundation events on incubation temperatures, hatchling morphology and fitness are unknown. This study investigates how measured inundation events affect loggerhead (Caretta caretta) sea turtle incubation temperatures, hatchling morphology and fitness in the Northern Gulf of Mexico. In 2022 and 2024 temperature and water levels were recorded in eighteen in situ nests on St. George Island (SGI), Florida. Upon emergence, up to 20 hatchlings per nest were collected for morphological measurements, and to perform crawl and righting tests as proxies of fitness. Average incubation temperatures were compared between inundated and non-inundated nests, inundated and non-inundated days, and in the 24 hours before and after inundation events. Hatchling incubation durations, morphology and fitness were also compared between inundated and non-inundated nests. Cooler temperatures were documented across incubation for inundated nests, on days that experienced inundation, and in the 24 hours after inundation events. Hatchlings from inundated nests incubated for significantly longer durations and exhibited heavier mass, smaller plastrons, and slower crawl speeds than hatchlings incubated in non-inundated nests. While inundation may ameliorate the impacts of rising incubation temperatures, the slower crawl speeds and smaller size exhibited by inundated hatchlings may adversely impact hatchling dispersal and survival. This is especially concerning as SGI is the largest source of hatchling production for the Northern Gulf of Mexico Loggerhead Recover Unit (NGMRU) and a reduction in hatchling survival may impact recruitment across the entire recovery unit. By identifying the impacts of environmental stressors on incubating embryos, we will be better equipped to plan for future climate scenarios and maximize hatchling output to ensure global sea turtle population persistence. Best, Adea Adea Arrison Sr. Academic Program Specialist Department of Earth, Ocean & Atmospheric Science [cid:image001.png at 01DCAA42.41EC2230] -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image001.png Type: image/png Size: 3433 bytes Desc: image001.png URL: From eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu Mon Mar 2 13:17:48 2026 From: eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu (eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu) Date: Mon, 2 Mar 2026 18:17:48 +0000 Subject: [Eoas-seminar] MS Defense - Mutschler Message-ID: Good afternoon, Please join us for Ian Mutschler?s MS Defense on Tuesday, March 10th from 9-11 AM (EST). Title: The Development and Implementation of Experimental Machine Learning Guidance to Predict Real-Time Probabilities of Landfall for North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Name: Ian Mutschler Date: March 10th, 9:00 ? 11:00 AM Location: EOA 3067 Major Professor: Dr. Robert Hart Zoom: https://fsu.zoom.us/j/92503253563 Abstract: ????Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the world?s most impactful natural disasters. TCs that make landfall, defined as the intersection of the TC?s surface center with land (\textit{?Glossary of NHC Terms?, n.d.}), can affect large swaths of coastal and inland regions. The areas at and around the exact landfall point often experience the greatest impacts due to the proximity to the maximum sustained winds and the largest magnitude of storm surge. While National Hurricane Center (NHC) TC track forecasts have improved drastically in recent decades (\textit{Cangialosi \& Martinez, 2025}), real-time guidance on if, when, or where a TC will make landfall is not readily available to local decision-makers or the greater public. ????This study aims to develop and evaluate an experimental supervised machine learning (ML) model that incorporates an ensemble of deterministic global numerical weather model output to produce probabilities of landfall for North Atlantic (NATL) TCs at 12hr intervals up to forecast hour 120. Model output is further subset by producing probabilities of landfall for independent regions within the model at each forecast hour range. A suite of predictors from numerical weather model data retrieved from the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast System (ATCF) (\textit{Miller et al., 1990}) was developed and used as input into the ML model. Additionally, historical landfall data was retrieved from the NHC?s Hurricane Database (HURDAT2) (\textit{Landsea \& Franklin, 2013}) and was used to create a landfall climatology predictor for model input alongside the model-based predictors described above. With this, a raw training set was built using the model/climatology-based predictors at each 6hr standardized model initialization time (00UTC, 06UTC, 12UTC, 18UTC) and for each 12hr forecast hour time range up to 120 hours. The training set contains model data for TCs over the years 2004-2024 with a seeded random 80/20 split of TCs to be used for training/testing purposes. A landfall was defined in the training set if HURDAT2?s ?record identifier? column showed a landfall occurring within the forecast hour time range (i.e. within 48-60hrs from a given model initialization time) ? all other cases were considered "non-landfall" cases. ????Three different ML algorithms with varying levels of complexity were trained on the same dataset for evaluation of model skill: logistic regression (LR), random forest (RF), and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost). Different ML models were trained at each 12hr forecast time range to account for the growing forecast error in raw model output as the time from the model initialization is increased. Each algorithm?s skill was inter-compared using both objective evaluation metrics as well as subjectively analyzing model performance on case studies from the testing set and from the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. Model skill was further investigated by evaluating its performance relative to a probability of landfall based purely on climatology (i.e. the percent of TCs at its initialized position that went on to make landfall in a region). This analysis helped select a ?best? model for use in producing probabilities of landfall in Atlantic TCs. ????Results show that the ML model developed in this study can produce reliable region-specific probabilities of landfall that exceeds climatology and subjectively performs well in more complex track forecast scenarios. The utility of this model is maximized for cases where the TC?s forecast track is anomalously uncertain. Such examples include recurving TCs where landfalls are highly dependent and sensitive to angle of approach, TCs with high model spread, or TCs approaching smaller landmasses such as those in the Caribbean. As the model?s output is based primarily on deterministic model runs, users can also investigate how landfall probabilities are evolving with time as models converge/diverge on different solutions. With landfall probabilities produced at 12hr intervals, users can also derive the most likely time period where a TC may make landfall. This can be especially useful for local officials making decisions on when to issue evacuation orders or for forecasters predicting storm surge quantities based on local tidal cycles. The work in this thesis addresses a complex forecasting problem by providing decision-makers with real-time probabilistic guidance of TC landfalls up to 120 hours out, improving the critical issue of forecast lead time for landfalling TCs and the communication of associated risks to the general public. Best, Adea Adea Arrison Sr. Academic Program Specialist Department of Earth, Ocean & Atmospheric Science [cid:image001.png at 01DCAA46.F63D08E0] -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image001.png Type: image/png Size: 3433 bytes Desc: image001.png URL: From eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu Mon Mar 2 13:23:16 2026 From: eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu (eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu) Date: Mon, 2 Mar 2026 18:23:16 +0000 Subject: [Eoas-seminar] Doctoral Defense - Michael Secor Message-ID: Good afternoon, Please join us for Michael Secor's Doctoral Defense on Wednesday, March 11th from 2:30-4:30 PM (EST). Title: A Yearly Varying Elliptical Orbit Representation for Long-Lead Prediction of the Stratospheric Polar Vortex Name: Michael Secor Date: March 11th, 2:30 - 4:30 PM Major Professor: Dr. Ming Cai Location: EOAS 6067 Zoom: https://fsu.zoom.us/j/4865193607 Abstract: The yearly varying annual evolution of the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) is shaped by the interplay between the annually consistent seasonal progression of radiative forcing and intermittent, dynamically driven interactions between planetary-scale waves and the mean flow. Variations in external factors such as climate modes modulate wave-mean flow interactions from year to year, driving interannual variability in the SPV's seasonal evolution. During winter, active stratosphere-troposphere coupling allows planetary-scale waves to propagate into the stratosphere, where they can break and disrupt the vortex. The subsequent recovery of the circulation, governed by radiative processes and suppressed wave propagation, gives rise to the observed vacillating behavior of the SPV. Given that these vacillation cycles evolve over multiple months, the opportunity for the SPV to undergo multiple independent strengthening and weakening phases within a single winter is limited. Motivated by the premise that interannual variability in the SPV's annual evolution is governed by low-frequency vacillation cycles modulated by external factors, the SPV is represented by fitting an ellipse to the yearly phase space trajectory formed by the daily time series of MU (stratospheric mass-weighted zonally integrated zonal wind at 60N) and M (total polar stratospheric air mass over 60-90N). To capture the full cold-season progression of the SPV within each trajectory, the SPV year is defined from July 1 to June 30 of the following calendar year. This representation achieves a substantial reduction in dimensionality by distilling the full 365 day SPV evolution into six ellipse parameters. A diagnostic evaluation demonstrates that the observed annual evolution of the SPV is accurately reproduced by the representation, capturing year-to-year variability in the observed daily evolution across subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescales along with the magnitude and timing of cold season extrema. Building on this diagnostic framework, long-lead hindcasts of wintertime SPV variability are generated by first predicting the yearly ellipse parameters prior to the onset of the cold season, and then using those predictions to reconstruct daily MU and M trajectories. A multivariate Bayesian regression model is developed to jointly predict yearly values of the six parameters from a set of 17 predictors derived exclusively from information available before October 1 of the forecast year, including indices describing external climate factors, isentropic mass circulation indices, and phase space trajectory precursors. Out of sample validation demonstrates high predictive accuracy across all six parameters. When translated through the elliptical orbit representation, ellipse parameters produce skillful hindcasts of continuously evolving SPV anomalies from November through the end of the cold season, with robust skill at lead times of one to six months. The predicted phase space trajectories also capture the amplitude and timing of wintertime extrema of MU and M. These results demonstrate that representing the SPV through its annual phase space evolution provides a robust framework for generating long-lead predictions of stratospheric polar vortex variability across S2S time scales. Best, Adea Adea Arrison Sr. Academic Program Specialist Department of Earth, Ocean & Atmospheric Science [cid:image001.png at 01DCAA47.A8985DF0] -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image001.png Type: image/png Size: 3433 bytes Desc: image001.png URL: From eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu Mon Mar 2 13:33:39 2026 From: eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu (eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu) Date: Mon, 2 Mar 2026 18:33:39 +0000 Subject: [Eoas-seminar] MS Defense - Cecil Message-ID: Good afternoon, Please join us for Marie Cecil's MS Defense on Monday, March 9th from 1-4 PM (EST). Title: INVESTIGATING SPATIAL VARIATIONS OF PESTICIDE CHLOROTHALONIL AND MAJOR ION CONCENTRATIONS AND ANALYZING IMPACTS OF CHLOROTHALONIL ON MAJOR ION CONCENTRATIONS IN IMMOKALEE, FLORIDA Name: Marie Cecil Date: Monday, March 9th, 1:00 - 4:00 PM Location: EOA 4067 Major Professor: Dr. Ming Ye Zoom link: https://fsu.zoom.us/j/98758244890 The meeting ID for the zoom is: Meeting ID 987 5824 4890 Abstract: Chlorothalonil, an organochlorine fungicide, has been used widely in agricultural fields, including south Florida, where (in terms of acreage), 100% of Florida's sugarcane, 42% of vegetables, and 38% of citrus are produced. Chlorothalonil used for agriculture enters the surrounding natural environment and may have impacts on water chemistry. The impacts of chlorothalonil on major ions in surface waters have not been well understood, especially in natural conditions. Based on published laboratory studies, the hypothesis of this study is that, under the field conditions of the study site, chlorothalonil concentrations are negatively correlated with chloride ion concentrations, positively correlated with nitrate ion concentrations, and positively correlated with phosphate ion concentrations. To test the hypotheses, surface water samples were collected on June 20th and June 21st, 2025, within the study site, Immokalee, Florida, an agriculturally relevant community in south Florida. Tandem liquid chromatography mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) analysis determined chlorothalonil concentrations in selected surface water samples from the study site. Ion chromatography analysis determined major ion concentrations (Fl-, Cl-, NO2-, NO3-, PO43-, SO42-, Na+, K+, Ca2+, and Mg2+) in selected surface water samples collected from the study site. Data analysis was utilized to examine existing major ion and chlorothalonil concentration data in surface waters within the South Florida Water Management District's (SFWMD) DBHYDRO database for the greater south Florida region. Spatial variations for chlorothalonil concentrations and ion concentrations across selected surface water samples were determined. Results illustrate a low positive correlation (0.216) between chloride and chlorothalonil, a low negative correlation (-0.143) between nitrate and chlorothalonil, and a moderate positive correlation (0.418) between phosphate and chlorothalonil in surface water bodies in Immokalee, Florida. This research shows that selected major ion concentrations may be used as a practical indicator for chlorothalonil's impacts on surface water chemistry. Best, Adea Adea Arrison Sr. Academic Program Specialist Department of Earth, Ocean & Atmospheric Science [cid:image001.png at 01DCAA49.2D2B76F0] -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image001.png Type: image/png Size: 3433 bytes Desc: image001.png URL: From eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu Mon Mar 2 13:39:38 2026 From: eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu (eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu) Date: Mon, 2 Mar 2026 18:39:38 +0000 Subject: [Eoas-seminar] MS Defense - Geiger Message-ID: Good afternoon, Please join us for Melody Geiger's MS Defense on Thursday, March 12th from 11:00 AM - 12:30 PM (EST). Title: Evaluating GLM-Derived Lightning Activity in Hurricane Milton (2024) as a Tool for Forecasting Rapid Intensification Name: Melody Geiger Date: March 12th, 11:00 am - 12:30 pm Location: EOAS 3067 Major Professor: Dr. Henry Fuelberg Abstract: Rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones is a difficult process to forecast, due to the complex physical processes involved. Several theories exist in the current literature about predicting RI before it occurs, including the role of lightning activity in a tropical cyclone. It is theorized that an increase in lightning in the inner core of a tropical cyclone can be an indicator of RI. However, there is debate among researchers about whether lightning may serve as a useful predictor of RI onset, an indicator that RI is already underway, or a signal that RI is ending. This research presents a case study on Hurricane Milton, which underwent RI in October 2024. Hurricane Milton intensified from a tropical depression to a category 5 hurricane in only 48 h and 55 min. GOES Lightning Mapper (GLM) products are used to examine the lightning activity of Hurricane Milton. Three GLM products are utilized concurrently; flash extent density, total optical energy, and minimum flash area. A significant advantage of using GLM data is that this satellite-based instrument provides high resolution data over the open ocean, which is a shortcoming of traditional ground-based lightning detection networks. Three 12 h intensification periods and one 12 h weakening period are defined and analyzed: two periods of moderate intensification, one period of rapid intensification, and one weakening period. This thesis focuses on these intensification and weakening periods to establish whether lightning observations may be used as a tool for improving tropical cyclone intensity forecasts. Results are compared to other case studies in the current literature that utilize GLM data in regard to tropical cyclone intensity. Results show that for Hurricane Milton, inner-core lightning can be used as a predictor of RI within approximately 6 h prior to maximum intensity. Lighting in the rainbands can be used as a predictor of RI within approximately 6-12 h prior to maximum intensity. These findings are supported by correlation analyses, which show that peaks in lightning activity are significantly correlated with peak wind speed at varying lead times. At the start of the RI period, lightning activity increases significantly and becomes concentrated on the inside of the radius of maximum winds (RMW). During this period, flash extent density and total optical energy increase while minimum flash area decreases. When examining the lightning activity in a shear-relative framework, the RI period is characterized by a shift in lightning activity to the right side of the shear vector. As Milton begins to weaken, the minimum flash area increases while the flash extent density and total optical energy decrease. In addition, the lightning noticeably shifts to the down-shear left quadrant, regarding a shear-relative framework. Relative to the RMW, the lightning becomes more dispersed and transitions outside the RMW. Many of these results are comparable with prior GLM-based case studies, while any notable differences are also discussed in this thesis. Although this thesis examines a single tropical cyclone, the results provide additional evidence that lightning- particularly the spatial distribution, density, energetics, and size of the flashes- contains useful information about the timing of rapid intensification. This work contributes to the ongoing debate regarding whether or not lightning observations can be used as a predictive tool in tropical cyclone intensity forecasting. Best, Adea Adea Arrison Sr. Academic Program Specialist Department of Earth, Ocean & Atmospheric Science [cid:image001.png at 01DCAA49.CBBB0C40] -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image001.png Type: image/png Size: 3433 bytes Desc: image001.png URL: From eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu Tue Mar 3 08:00:00 2026 From: eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu (eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu) Date: Tue, 3 Mar 2026 13:00:00 +0000 Subject: [Eoas-seminar] TODAY 3 PM - MET Seminar - Prof. William Boos (UC Berkeley) In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: Dear all, This a reminder of our MET seminar today given by Prof. William Boos from UC Berkeley. He will speak about ?How and why will the water resources humanity obtains from mountains change in coming years?? (details below). Talk at 3 in 1044 with snacks & refreshments. See you there! --------------------------------------------------- Allison A. Wing, Ph.D. Werner A. and Shirley B. Baum Associate Professor Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science Florida State University awing at fsu.edu From: Allison Wing Date: Wednesday, February 25, 2026 at 9:00?AM To: eoas-seminar--- via Eoas-seminar , 'Allison Wing' via info at coaps Subject: MET Seminar - Tuesday March 3 - Prof. William Boos (UC Berkeley) Dear all, Please join us for a Meteorology seminar next Tuesday March 3 at 3 PM, given by Prof. William Boos from UC Berkeley. He will speak about ?How and why will the water resources humanity obtains from mountains change in coming years?? . Prof. Boos will join us in person, but Zoom link is available for those with a medical excuse or approved work off-campus. Please contact Allison Wing (awing at fsu.edu) for the link. DATE: Tuesday March 3 TIME: 3-4 PM, please join early for refreshments LOCATION: EOA 1044 SPEAKER: Prof. William Boos We look forward to seeing you there! ========= Title: How and why will the water resources humanity obtains from mountains change in coming years? Abstract: Over half the global human population depends on water resources obtained from mountains and high plateaus, and this fraction of the global population is projected to grow in coming decades. Yet the atmospheric processes that supply this water in the form of orographic precipitation are poorly understood, especially in the tropics where elevated terrain alters precipitation by modifying ensembles of convective clouds. How these processes will change in coming decades is also unknown. This talk will present new findings on the mechanisms that govern the response of tropical orographic precipitation to variations in global and regional climate. We will show that mechanically forced tropical orographic precipitation is extremely sensitive to the magnitude of the cross-slope wind speed, and explain how these sensitivities arise from orographic gravity wave dynamics. We will also discuss the phenomenon of "elevation-dependent warming", in which elevated land surfaces warm faster than non-elevated ones when subject to a greenhouse gas forcing. We will show that particular radiative feedbacks enhance warming over elevated terrain, while others suppress it. These results bring us closer to a complete understanding of how the water resources derived from mountains will respond to future changes in winds and temperatures. --------------------------------------------------- Allison A. Wing, Ph.D. Werner A. and Shirley B. Baum Associate Professor Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science Florida State University awing at fsu.edu -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu Mon Mar 9 09:18:31 2026 From: eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu (eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu) Date: Mon, 9 Mar 2026 13:18:31 +0000 Subject: [Eoas-seminar] EOAS Colloquium, March 13, 2026 at 3:00 PM Message-ID: Hi all, I am happy to announce that we will have an EOAS colloquium this Friday, March 13, 2026. The following is the information about the colloquium: Speaker: Drs. Michael Diamond and Emily Stewart, Florida State University Title: Metamorphic Sulfur Release As A Driver Of Sustained Cooling And Mass Extinction Abstract: The emplacement of large igneous provinces may drive catastrophic volatile release, both directly through volcanic degassing and indirectly through heating of carbon and sulfur-bearing host sediments. It is broadly assumed that sulfur injection must reach the stratosphere to drive long-term cooling, thus these indirect metamorphic sulfur emissions have been almost entirely ignored. Here we demonstrate that plausible carbon and sulfur emissions from contact metamorphism may be sustained long enough to cause centennial-scale sulfate aerosol-driven cooling spikes of several Kelvin superimposed on millennial-scale warming from the carbon dioxide greenhouse effect. We use modeling of sediment metamorphism along with simple carbon cycle and planetary energy balance models of the climate response to explore this relationship. Our results suggest that a metamorphic sulfur source should be considered as a driver of sustained global cooling during large igneous province emplacement, with potential implications for Phanerozoic biotic crises such as the End-Triassic Mass Extinction. Time: 3:00 PM, Friday, March 13, 2026 Location: EOA 1044 Contact: Prof. Zhaohua Wu (zwu at fsu.edu) A flyer of the colloquium is also attached. Cheers, Zhaohua *************************************************************** Zhaohua Wu, Professor Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science Building, Room 6041, and Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Room 295 Florida State University Tallahassee, Florida zwu at fsu.edu **************************************************************** -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: 031326_Diamond_Stewart.pdf Type: application/pdf Size: 227867 bytes Desc: 031326_Diamond_Stewart.pdf URL: From eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu Mon Mar 9 09:56:21 2026 From: eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu (eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu) Date: Mon, 9 Mar 2026 09:56:21 -0400 Subject: [Eoas-seminar] David Moroni talking at 10:00 AM today Message-ID: Please see David's presentation related to data center activities. Regards, Mark From eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu Mon Mar 9 10:15:05 2026 From: eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu (eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu) Date: Mon, 9 Mar 2026 14:15:05 +0000 Subject: [Eoas-seminar] [Seminar-announce] Scientific Computing Colloquium with Thomas Stephan Juzek Message-ID: "From Preference Learning to Language Shifts: Quantifying the Bidirectional Interactions of Humans and Machines" Thomas Stephan Juzek Department of Modern Languages and Linguistics Florida State University (FSU) Please feel free to forward/share this invitation with other groups/disciplines that might be interested in this talk/topic. All are welcome to attend. NOTE: In-person attendance is requested in our 499 Dirac Science Library (DSL) Seminar Room. Zoom access is intended for external (non-departmental) participants only. https://fsu.zoom.us/j/94273595552 Meeting # 942 7359 5552 ? Colloquium recordings will be made available here, https://www.sc.fsu.edu/colloquium Wednesday, Mar 11, 2026, Schedule: * 3:00 to 3:30 PM Eastern Time (US and Canada) ? Nespresso & Teatime - 417 DSL Commons * 3:30 to 4:30 PM Eastern Time (US and Canada) ? Colloquium - 499 DSL Seminar Room Abstract: This talk explores how human language and language produced by large language models diverge, and how they interact. First, model-agnostic diagnostics for identifying AI language behaviour are presented, by comparing paired human texts with matched AI outputs under the same conditions. Large-scale datasets are used, spanning 30+ languages. Second, analyses tracking change over time test the extent to which these AI-associated signals propagate into human communication, including news, academic writing, and unscripted speech. Cross-lingual homogenisation pressures are discussed. Finally, results comparing base and instruction-tuned models are used to assess how preference-based training may amplify word-choice biases, with validation from behavioural tasks. The talk concludes by outlining a planned ablation study to establish causal mechanisms linking preference learning to model behaviour. [cid:d10ea789-de71-4bf8-844d-93a3848289be] Additional colloquium details can be found here. https://www.sc.fsu.edu/news-and-events/colloquium/1910-colloquium-with-thomas-stephan-juzek-2026-03-11 -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: not available Type: text/calendar Size: 5066 bytes Desc: not available URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... 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Chaehyeon Chelsea Nam, PhD Assistant Professor Department of Earth, Ocean & Atmospheric Science Florida State University https://chelsea-nam.github.io ________________________________ From: Eoas-seminar on behalf of eoas-seminar--- via Eoas-seminar Sent: Monday, March 2, 2026 12:35 PM To: eoas-seminar--- via Eoas-seminar Subject: [Eoas-seminar] MS Defense - Tekoe Good afternoon all! Please join us for Abraham Tekoe?s MS Defense on Tuesday, March 10th from 3-5 PM in EOA 1044. Title: Efficiency of Tropical Cyclogenesis in Large-Scale Circulations: Climatology of Monsoon Gyres and Tropical Cyclogenesis in the Western North Pacific Name: Abraham Tekoe Date: March 10th 3:00-5:00 PM Major Professor: Chelsea Nam Location: EOA 1044 Abstract: Monsoon gyres (MGs) are large-scale cyclonic circulation systems embedded within the western North Pacific monsoon trough and are often associated with tropical cyclone (TC) formation. Despite their importance as precursors to tropical cyclogenesis, the factors controlling the timing of TC formation within MG environments remain poorly understood. This study examines how the structure and horizontal scale of MGs influence the evolution of embedded disturbances and the timing of TC genesis during 1980?2024. An objective detection algorithm was developed using ERA5 reanalysis data to identify MG events, and each gyre was analyzed using a normalized coordinate framework to compare environments across gyres of different sizes. Convective activity was diagnosed using GridSat-B1 infrared satellite data, while TC formation was identified using IBTrACS best-track records. Results show that MGs are strongly linked to TC formation, with about 91% of detected gyres producing at least one tropical cyclone. However, the timing of genesis varies systematically with gyre size: larger gyres tend to produce TCs later than smaller ones. Thermodynamic conditions such as sea surface temperature and humidity are generally favorable across cases, suggesting that dynamical processes?particularly vortex consolidation and vertical alignment?play a more important role in determining when genesis occurs. A detailed case study of Invest 95W (Typhoon Tapah 2019) illustrates how TC formation can be delayed within very large MG environments. Overall, the results support a two-scale framework in which monsoon gyres provide a favorable background environment, while the timing of tropical cyclogenesis depends primarily on the dynamical evolution of embedded vortices. Best, Adea Adea Arrison Sr. Academic Program Specialist Department of Earth, Ocean & Atmospheric Science [cid:image001.png at 01DCAA41.0FBB46C0] -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image001.png Type: image/png Size: 3433 bytes Desc: image001.png URL: From eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu Mon Mar 9 14:45:42 2026 From: eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu (eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu) Date: Mon, 9 Mar 2026 18:45:42 +0000 Subject: [Eoas-seminar] Reminder - 9 am tomorrow Defense Message-ID: Good afternoon, Please join us for Ian Mutschler's MS Defense on Tuesday, March 10th from 9-11 AM (EST). Title: The Development and Implementation of Experimental Machine Learning Guidance to Predict Real-Time Probabilities of Landfall for North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Name: Ian Mutschler Date: March 10th, 9:00 - 11:00 AM Location: EOA 3067 Major Professor: Dr. Robert Hart Zoom: https://fsu.zoom.us/j/92503253563 Best, Adea Adea Arrison Sr. Academic Program Specialist Department of Earth, Ocean & Atmospheric Science [cid:image001.png at 01DCAFD3.66FBA3C0] -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image001.png Type: image/png Size: 3433 bytes Desc: image001.png URL: From eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu Mon Mar 9 14:46:41 2026 From: eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu (eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu) Date: Mon, 9 Mar 2026 18:46:41 +0000 Subject: [Eoas-seminar] Reminder - 9 am Wednesday Defense Message-ID: Good afternoon, Please join us for Ali Johnson's MS Defense on Wednesday, March 11th from 9-11 AM. Title: EFFECTS OF INUNDATION ON LOGGERHEAD SEA TURTLE (CARETTA CARETTA) HATCHLING MORPHOLOGY, FITNESS, AND INCUBATION TEMPERATURE Name: Ali Johnson Time: Mar 11, 2026 09:00 AM Eastern Time (US and Canada) Major Professor: Mariana Fuentes Join Zoom Meeting https://fsu.zoom.us/j/95712100606 Best, Adea Adea Arrison Sr. Academic Program Specialist Department of Earth, Ocean & Atmospheric Science [cid:image001.png at 01DCAFD3.8A1D2B80] -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image001.png Type: image/png Size: 3433 bytes Desc: image001.png URL: From eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu Mon Mar 9 14:47:44 2026 From: eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu (eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu) Date: Mon, 9 Mar 2026 18:47:44 +0000 Subject: [Eoas-seminar] Reminder - 2:30 pm Wednesday Defense Message-ID: Good afternoon, Please join us for Michael Secor's Doctoral Defense on Wednesday, March 11th from 2:30-4:30 PM (EST). Title: A Yearly Varying Elliptical Orbit Representation for Long-Lead Prediction of the Stratospheric Polar Vortex Name: Michael Secor Date: March 11th, 2:30 - 4:30 PM Major Professor: Dr. Ming Cai Location: EOAS 6067 Zoom: https://fsu.zoom.us/j/4865193607 Best, Adea Adea Arrison Sr. Academic Program Specialist Department of Earth, Ocean & Atmospheric Science [cid:image001.png at 01DCAFD3.AF946310] -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image001.png Type: image/png Size: 3433 bytes Desc: image001.png URL: From eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu Mon Mar 9 14:48:38 2026 From: eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu (eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu) Date: Mon, 9 Mar 2026 18:48:38 +0000 Subject: [Eoas-seminar] Reminder - 11 am Thursday Defense Message-ID: Good afternoon, Please join us for Melody Geiger's MS Defense on Thursday, March 12th from 11:00 AM - 12:30 PM (EST). Title: Evaluating GLM-Derived Lightning Activity in Hurricane Milton (2024) as a Tool for Forecasting Rapid Intensification Name: Melody Geiger Date: March 12th, 11:00 am - 12:30 pm Location: EOAS 3067 Major Professor: Dr. Henry Fuelberg Best, Adea Adea Arrison Sr. Academic Program Specialist Department of Earth, Ocean & Atmospheric Science [cid:image001.png at 01DCAFD3.CF97E1F0] -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image001.png Type: image/png Size: 3433 bytes Desc: image001.png URL: From eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu Fri Mar 13 07:39:42 2026 From: eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu (eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu) Date: Fri, 13 Mar 2026 07:39:42 -0400 Subject: [Eoas-seminar] Fwd: Carothers Lectures April 14 In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: Our next Carothers lecture is on Tuesday, April 14, when Lara Perez-Felkner, Professor of Higher Education and Sociology, Anne's College, will present on "Designing for Persistence: Engineering Resilient Academic Pathways from Classroom to Career." I've attached a flyer for the lecture to this email, and the direct link to the sign-up page for the luncheon is online here: https://nam04.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fforms.office.com%2Fr%2FkNyEJvSdNc&data=05%7C02%7Ceoas-seminar%40lists.fsu.edu%7C21d6f3f568cb4714a3cd08de80f5391f%7Ca36450ebdb0642a78d1b026719f701e3%7C0%7C0%7C639089987873479701%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiIsIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&sdata=8tmfMPK7qJN5DkEAt7RNPMTkedw8ZWwVdogCvwtfv8s%3D&reserved=0 All best wishes, and as always, many thanks to the committee, as well as the Office of Research, the University Libraries, and the Office of Faculty Development and Advancement for sponsoring this series!! --Paul ------------- Paul F. Marty, Ph.D. Professor, School of Information Associate Vice Provost for Academic?Innovation Florida State University ? https://nam04.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fmarty.cci.fsu.edu%2F&data=05%7C02%7Ceoas-seminar%40lists.fsu.edu%7C21d6f3f568cb4714a3cd08de80f5391f%7Ca36450ebdb0642a78d1b026719f701e3%7C0%7C0%7C639089987873539521%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiIsIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&sdata=IJ4NbavcCJrerRI8iq6564AIAy4BuSQUYvm8TxMFDRk%3D&reserved=0 ? marty at fsu.edu banner_april.png -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: banner_april.png Type: image/png Size: 412443 bytes Desc: not available URL: From eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu Fri Mar 13 09:00:04 2026 From: eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu (eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu) Date: Fri, 13 Mar 2026 13:00:04 +0000 Subject: [Eoas-seminar] Fw: EOAS Colloquium, March 13, 2026 at 3:00 PM In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: Hi all, This is a reminder that we will have a colloquium today at 3:00 PM in EOA 1044, see the forwarded colloquium announcement. Cheers, Zhaohua ________________________________ From: Eoas-seminar on behalf of eoas-seminar--- via Eoas-seminar Sent: Monday, March 9, 2026 9:18 AM To: eoas-seminar--- via Eoas-seminar Subject: [Eoas-seminar] EOAS Colloquium, March 13, 2026 at 3:00 PM Hi all, I am happy to announce that we will have an EOAS colloquium this Friday, March 13, 2026. The following is the information about the colloquium: Speaker: Drs. Michael Diamond and Emily Stewart, Florida State University Title: Metamorphic Sulfur Release As A Driver Of Sustained Cooling And Mass Extinction Abstract: The emplacement of large igneous provinces may drive catastrophic volatile release, both directly through volcanic degassing and indirectly through heating of carbon and sulfur-bearing host sediments. It is broadly assumed that sulfur injection must reach the stratosphere to drive long-term cooling, thus these indirect metamorphic sulfur emissions have been almost entirely ignored. Here we demonstrate that plausible carbon and sulfur emissions from contact metamorphism may be sustained long enough to cause centennial-scale sulfate aerosol-driven cooling spikes of several Kelvin superimposed on millennial-scale warming from the carbon dioxide greenhouse effect. We use modeling of sediment metamorphism along with simple carbon cycle and planetary energy balance models of the climate response to explore this relationship. Our results suggest that a metamorphic sulfur source should be considered as a driver of sustained global cooling during large igneous province emplacement, with potential implications for Phanerozoic biotic crises such as the End-Triassic Mass Extinction. Time: 3:00 PM, Friday, March 13, 2026 Location: EOA 1044 Contact: Prof. Zhaohua Wu (zwu at fsu.edu) A flyer of the colloquium is also attached. Cheers, Zhaohua *************************************************************** Zhaohua Wu, Professor Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science Building, Room 6041, and Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Room 295 Florida State University Tallahassee, Florida zwu at fsu.edu **************************************************************** -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: 031326_Diamond_Stewart.pdf Type: application/pdf Size: 227867 bytes Desc: 031326_Diamond_Stewart.pdf URL: -------------- next part -------------- _______________________________________________ Eoas-seminar mailing list Eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu https://lists.fsu.edu/mailman/listinfo/eoas-seminar From eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu Fri Mar 13 13:09:43 2026 From: eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu (eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu) Date: Fri, 13 Mar 2026 17:09:43 +0000 Subject: [Eoas-seminar] MET Seminar - Tuesday March 24 3 PM - Dr. Simchan "Shim" Yook (MIT) Message-ID: Dear all, Please join us for a Meteorology seminar on Tuesday March 24 (after spring break) at 3 PM, given by Dr. Simchan ?Shim? Yook, a postdoctoral researcher at MIT. He will speak about ?Potential Impacts of a Regional Nuclear Conflict on Climate? (abstract below). Dr. Yook will join us in person, but Zoom link is available for those with a medical excuse or approved work off-campus. Please contact Allison Wing (awing at fsu.edu) for the link. Dr. Yook will be in Tallahassee March 23-25 and is available for meetings - please contact Chelsea Nam (ccn23b at fsu.edu) if you would like to meet with him. His research focuses on interactions between different components of the climate system using model hierarchies and observations (e.g., ocean-atmosphere interaction, chemistry-climate interaction, radiation-dynamics interaction, etc?). There will also be a graduate student lunch with Dr. Yook on Tuesday March 24 at 12:30 PM. Grad students - please RSVP to Chelsea Nam (ccn23b at fsu.edu) by the end of the day on Monday March 23. Please also join us for drinks and casual conversation with Dr. Yook at Proof @ the Union after his seminar. DATE: Tuesday March 24 TIME: 3-4 PM, please join early for refreshments LOCATION: EOA 1044 SPEAKER: Dr. Simchan ?Shim? Yook We look forward to seeing you there! ========= Title: Potential Impacts of a Regional Nuclear Conflict on Climate? Abstract: Previous research has shown that smoke from large-scale fires ignited by regional-scale nuclear detonations can significantly deplete ozone. Our work expands on this by including emissions of halogen-containing compounds - specifically chlorine and bromine - released from the combustion of urban infrastructure and industrial materials. These halogens can become activated on smoke particles produced by a regional nuclear war, making them highly effective at catalyzing ozone destruction. Using a chemistry-climate model, we assess changes in (1) ozone chemistry and surface climate, and (2) stratospheric circulation. In Part 1, we find that Arctic ozone reductions could reach levels similar to those of the Antarctic ozone hole, up to ~80%. We also obtain ozone losses of 40-60% over mid-latitudes, accompanied by significant increases in surface UV-B radiation. Even a regional nuclear conflict could therefore result in severe ozone depletion and elevated UV exposure, posing serious risks to human health and ecosystems. In Part 2, we investigate the thermodynamic budget of the stratospheric circulation changes. The nuclear emissions induce substantial stratospheric warming of up to ~30 K. Previously, this was understood as shortwave absorption by injected black carbon (BC) particles. However, our detailed thermodynamic budget analysis shows that the radiative heating is confined to the tropics, while the extratropical and high-latitude anomalies are primarily driven by the dynamical heat transport - via adiabatic processes and atmospheric eddies. --------------------------------------------------- Allison A. Wing, Ph.D. Werner A. and Shirley B. Baum Associate Professor Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science Florida State University awing at fsu.edu -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: