[Eoas-seminar] MET Seminar - Tuesday April 7 - 3 PM - Prof. Kelly Núñez Ocasio (Texas A&M)

[eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu]

Dear all,

Please join us for a Meteorology seminar on Tuesday April 7 at 3 PM, given by Prof. Kelly Núñez Ocasio<https://nam04.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fsites.google.com%2Ftamu.edu%2Fnunez-ocasio%2Fhome&data=05%7C02%7Ceoas-seminar%40lists.fsu.edu%7Ca15dc90d36f04b95ddae08de901238fd%7Ca36450ebdb0642a78d1b026719f701e3%7C0%7C0%7C639106605084767675%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiIsIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&sdata=FX5Zt0OmrMZYF3nwKApiBJHQCC8qAclZtuD0ySdGmcg%3D&reserved=0> from Texas A&M University.  She will speak about “Novel Km-scale Regional Modeling Approaches for Current and Future Tropical Weather and Climate” (abstract below).

Prof. Núñez Ocasio will present over Zoom but we will gather together in 1044 to participate in the seminar. A Zoom link is available for those with a medical excuse or approved work off-campus. Please contact Allison Wing (awing at fsu.edu<mailto:awing at fsu.edu>) for the link.

DATE: Tuesday April 7
TIME: 3-4 PM, please join early for refreshments
LOCATION: EOA 1044
SPEAKER: Prof. Kelly Núñez Ocasio<https://nam04.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fsites.google.com%2Ftamu.edu%2Fnunez-ocasio%2Fhome&data=05%7C02%7Ceoas-seminar%40lists.fsu.edu%7Ca15dc90d36f04b95ddae08de901238fd%7Ca36450ebdb0642a78d1b026719f701e3%7C0%7C0%7C639106605084783258%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiIsIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&sdata=IiUKZLAgHVU76JxymC%2B%2FBXHIaW8zI7qj7OtY5WaIPD0%3D&reserved=0>

We look forward to seeing you there!

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Title:  Novel Km-scale Regional Modeling Approaches for Current and Future Tropical Weather and Climate

Abstract: This project investigates how a warming climate will alter the African Easterly Jet (AEJ), the West African Monsoon (WAM), African Easterly Waves (AEWs), and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) — the interconnected weather systems that seed tropical cyclones and drive high-impact precipitation events across Africa, the Atlantic basin, and Caribbean. Although the question of how fully formed TCs will be modulated by a warmer and moister climate has received much attention, how the TC "seeds" respond to climate change remains poorly understood — largely due to the inability of traditional global climate models to adequately resolve convection.

We address this using first-of-their-kind regional convection-permitting simulations with the Model for Prediction Across-Scales Atmosphere (MPAS-A) and a pseudo-global warming approach. Results show a northward-shifting and intensifying AEJ under mid-century warming, alongside increased monsoonal moisture. Importantly, future AEWs do not follow the AEJ northward, instead remaining near moisture, while developing AEWs exhibit lower propagation speeds and longer land residence times. These changes are accompanied by stronger baroclinic and barotropic energy conversions over Africa.

These dynamics alter MCS behavior in distinct ways: future MCSs generally produce more rainfall over water than land, but AEW-coupled MCSs show the opposite pattern — becoming rainier over land. I will synthesize the results and implications of the last four research studies from this work and provide an explanation for this divergence, specifically why AEW-MCS coupling dynamics differ fundamentally from general MCS thermodynamics.

In the second part of the talk, I turn to Mesoamerica and the Caribbean, introducing the Mesoamerica Affinity Group (MAAG), an NSF NCAR-supported initiative promoting collaborative, high-resolution climate research, including a convection-permitting MPAS-A simulation of Hurricane Maria (2017).


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Allison A. Wing, Ph.D.
Werner A. and Shirley B. Baum Associate Professor
Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science
Florida State University
awing at fsu.edu<mailto:awing at fsu.edu>


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