[Eoas-seminar] Announcing the 2025-2026 Werner A. Baum Lecture

[eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu]

Dear all,

I am pleased to announce that the 2025-2026 Werner A. Baum Lecture will be held on Friday November 14 at 3 PM in EOA 1050. The lecture will be given by Professor Adam Sobel<https://nam04.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.columbia.edu%2F~ahs129%2Fhome.html&data=05%7C02%7Ceoas-seminar%40lists.fsu.edu%7C6cefa91437974626222308de04fb44b6%7Ca36450ebdb0642a78d1b026719f701e3%7C0%7C0%7C638953674406200204%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiIsIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&sdata=8LwEIliVS9uAqtiVfoguTJXmm8GnfHKHGbXO2DraNFU%3D&reserved=0> <https://nam04.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.columbia.edu%2F~ahs129%2Fhome.html&data=05%7C02%7Ceoas-seminar%40lists.fsu.edu%7C6cefa91437974626222308de04fb44b6%7Ca36450ebdb0642a78d1b026719f701e3%7C0%7C0%7C638953674406226244%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiIsIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&sdata=DQTgO1O7Gpum9FnfCFnJBqwZb2ZTG%2FoMykZ7J2kpDyY%3D&reserved=0> from Columbia University who will speak about Tropical Cyclone Risk and the State of the Tropical Pacific. Please see below and the attached flyer for more information.

We look forward to having a great turnout for what promises to be a fascinating lecture on a very timely topic. Prof. Sobel will be visiting EOAS from Thursday November 13- Friday November 14 and there will be opportunities for faculty, researchers, and students to meet with him. I will be arranging his schedule of meetings as we get closer to the date.

Please feel free to forward to this announcement to other colleagues of yours who might be interested in attending the lecture.

Speaker: Professor Adam Sobel<https://nam04.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.columbia.edu%2F~ahs129%2Fhome.html&data=05%7C02%7Ceoas-seminar%40lists.fsu.edu%7C6cefa91437974626222308de04fb44b6%7Ca36450ebdb0642a78d1b026719f701e3%7C0%7C0%7C638953674406240858%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiIsIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&sdata=j%2BAy4uWUd4wtMTB6dxVHABJC3mXEgFeEBpP2PnHjVhA%3D&reserved=0>
Date & Time: Friday November 14, 3 PM
Location: EOA 1050
Title: Tropical cyclone risk and the state of the tropical Pacific

Abstract: Tropical cyclone (TC) risk is strongly modulated by the state of the tropical Pacific climate. During El Niño events, for example, TC activity is suppressed in the North Atlantic (thus TC risk to the U.S. is generally reduced) and enhanced in the northeast Pacific, while the opposite occurs during La Niña events. Virtually all Earth system models simulate long-term trends in sea surface temperature under greenhouse gas warming that are structurally similar to El Niño, with greater warming in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific than in the rest of the basin. Unsurprisingly, predictions and projections of TC activity based on these models (for example, using statistical-dynamical downscaling models which take the simulated climates from Earth system models as input) generate results that are also broadly similar to what happens in El Niño events, including suppressed Atlantic activity. Yet over the last several decades, observations have shown trends that are more similar to La Niña, approximately opposite to what the models say should have happened. It now seems likely that this is not just a result of internal variability, but that the models are in fact wrong in their representations of the tropical Pacific’s response to radiative forcing. How then should we generate estimates of TC activity for the present and near future? I will present results from a couple of ongoing projects in which we try to 1) understand why the models might be wrong about tropical Pacific trends, and 2) generate “storylines” of near-term climate change, TC activity, and TC hazard and risk that are more consistent with recent history.


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Allison A. Wing, Ph.D.

Werner A. and Shirley B. Baum Associate Professor

Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science

Florida State University

awing at fsu.edu<mailto:awing at fsu.edu>




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