[Eoas-seminar] TODAY 3 PM: Werner A. Baum Lecture

[eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu]

Dear all,

This is a reminder about the Baum lecture today at 3 pm in EOA 1050​​, given by Professor Adam Sobel of Columbia University.  This should be a great lecture by a prestigious speaker on a timely topic of broad interest. Please attend!

Speaker: Professor Adam Sobel<https://nam04.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.columbia.edu%2F~ahs129%2Fhome.html&data=05%7C02%7Ceoas-seminar%40lists.fsu.edu%7Cd8a05a3514964d48141508de23798cd9%7Ca36450ebdb0642a78d1b026719f701e3%7C0%7C0%7C638987202169220274%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiIsIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&sdata=Dg3K7HCIhn1Fkoz%2B4JO5Sok05d%2BD3KcZe08xsmtd%2BfE%3D&reserved=0>
Date & Time: Friday November 14, 3 PM
Location: EOA 1050 [Zoom link available if needed]
Title: Tropical cyclone risk and the state of the tropical Pacific

Cheers,

Allison


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Allison A. Wing, Ph.D.

Werner A. and Shirley B. Baum Associate Professor

Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science

Florida State University

awing at fsu.edu<mailto:awing at fsu.edu>





From: Allison Wing <awing at fsu.edu>
Date: Monday, November 10, 2025 at 9:20 AM
To: Eoas-seminar <eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu>, 'Allison Wing' via info at coaps <info at coaps.fsu.edu>
Subject: Friday Nov 14 3 PM: Werner A. Baum Lecture

Dear all,

Please join us this Friday November 14 at 3 PM in EOA 1050 for the 2025-2026 Werner A. Baum Lecture. The lecture will be given by Professor Adam Sobel<https://nam04.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.columbia.edu%2F~ahs129%2Fhome.html&data=05%7C02%7Ceoas-seminar%40lists.fsu.edu%7Cd8a05a3514964d48141508de23798cd9%7Ca36450ebdb0642a78d1b026719f701e3%7C0%7C0%7C638987202169815222%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiIsIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&sdata=qJznWcxEW4TaeMX4FbyiOmEN3Oq8UdKiL61DawPnx2I%3D&reserved=0> from Columbia University who will speak about Tropical Cyclone Risk and the State of the Tropical Pacific. Please see below and the attached flyer for more information.

We look forward to having a great turnout for what promises to be a fascinating lecture on a very timely topic. The lecture will be presented in person but a Zoom link is available for those with a medical excuse or approved work off-campus. Please contact Allison Wing (awing at fsu.edu<mailto:awing at fsu.edu>) for the Zoom link.

Prof. Sobel is available for meetings on Friday November 14; please contact Allison Wing (awing at fsu.edu<mailto:awing at fsu.edu>) if you would like to meet with him.

Please feel free to forward to this announcement to other colleagues of yours who might be interested in attending the lecture.

Speaker: Professor Adam Sobel<https://nam04.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.columbia.edu%2F~ahs129%2Fhome.html&data=05%7C02%7Ceoas-seminar%40lists.fsu.edu%7Cd8a05a3514964d48141508de23798cd9%7Ca36450ebdb0642a78d1b026719f701e3%7C0%7C0%7C638987202169838700%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiIsIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&sdata=OWyFJDAsFzcEAWSIpb16rZ4IBNWokiSi%2BlaGMQc05tU%3D&reserved=0>
Date & Time: Friday November 14, 3 PM
Location: EOA 1050
Title: Tropical cyclone risk and the state of the tropical Pacific

Abstract: Tropical cyclone (TC) risk is strongly modulated by the state of the tropical Pacific climate. During El Niño events, for example, TC activity is suppressed in the North Atlantic (thus TC risk to the U.S. is generally reduced) and enhanced in the northeast Pacific, while the opposite occurs during La Niña events. Virtually all Earth system models simulate long-term trends in sea surface temperature under greenhouse gas warming that are structurally similar to El Niño, with greater warming in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific than in the rest of the basin. Unsurprisingly, predictions and projections of TC activity based on these models (for example, using statistical-dynamical downscaling models which take the simulated climates from Earth system models as input) generate results that are also broadly similar to what happens in El Niño events, including suppressed Atlantic activity. Yet over the last several decades, observations have shown trends that are more similar to La Niña, approximately opposite to what the models say should have happened. It now seems likely that this is not just a result of internal variability, but that the models are in fact wrong in their representations of the tropical Pacific’s response to radiative forcing. How then should we generate estimates of TC activity for the present and near future? I will present results from a couple of ongoing projects in which we try to 1) understand why the models might be wrong about tropical Pacific trends, and 2) generate “storylines” of near-term climate change, TC activity, and TC hazard and risk that are more consistent with recent history.

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Allison Wing, Ph.D.
Werner A. and Shirley B. Baum Professor
Associate Professor, Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science
Florida State University
awing at fsu.edu<mailto:awing at fsu.edu>


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