[Eoas-seminar] Please join us for a Friday 3pm Seminar by PO faculty candidate on "El Niño/Southern Oscillation theory, complexity and the role of spatial shifting"

[eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu]

Please join us for a Friday 3pm Seminar in Room 1050 by PO faculty candidate Dr. Sulian Thual of Mercator Ocean


Title and abstract below.


El Niño/Southern Oscillation theory, complexity and the role of spatial shifting

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) spawned in the tropical Pacific is the most prominent year-to-year climate fluctuation on Earth, with a global reach and a legion of societal and environmental impacts. Its general dynamics are reasonably well understood and they involve ocean-atmosphere interactions that modify the Walker circulation in the equatorial Pacific. However, the ENSO also exhibits considerable spatio-temporal complexity, for example a pronounced event-to-event diversity and asymmetry as well as fundamental nonlinearities. This so-called ENSO complexity hinders practical predictions and climate change assessment from general circulation models, and it also challenges current understanding.

The ENSO basin-scale dynamics are rather low-dimensional and can be encapsulated by relatively simple mathematical models such as the recharge-discharge model. We will briefly review these fundamentals of ENSO theory before discussing recent extensions that allow grasping more advanced spatio-temporal features. The background Walker circulation in the Tropical Pacific for example shows pronounced zonal movements, or spatial shifting, as delineated by the edge of the western Pacific warm pool. Including this process in the conventional recharge-discharge model improves spatio-temporal complexity with notably the ability to grasp distinct El Niño spatial patterns as well as a fundamental nonlinearity between principal components of SST. Broad perspectives include the study of climate change sensitivity as well as multiscale and pantropical interactions.

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Eric Chassignet
Professor and Director
Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS)
Florida State University
2000 Levy Avenue, Building A, Suite 292
P.O. Box 3062741
Tallahassee, FL  32306-2741

Office : (1) 850-645-7288
COAPS  : (1) 850-644-3846
Cell   : (1) 850-524-0033 (urgent matters only)
FAX    : (1) 850-644-4841
E-mail : echassignet at fsu.edu
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