[Eoas-seminar] COAPS Short Seminar Series

[eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu]

COAPS Short Seminar Series
11:00 AM Marsh 4th
Attend F2F (in 255 Research A) or Virtually (via Zoom)
https://fsu.zoom.us/j/92268262553

Meeting ID: 922 6826 2553
Talks are 12 minutes long with an additional 8 minutes for questions.
Systematic drifts of Rossby wave breaking in medium-range forecasts
By Thea Xue
Description: This research investigates the systematic drifts of Rossby wave breaking in medium-range forecasts. The findings reveal a consistent underestimation in the forecasted global zonal breaking extent for global cyclonic wave breakings (CWB) over a lead time of 14 days, with a comparatively lesser tendency for such drift in anticyclonic wave breakings (AWBs). Regional examinations highlight a significant underestimation in cyclonic breaking extent over the Pacific compared to the Atlantic, while forecasts tend to overestimate anticyclonic breaking extent over Eurasia and underestimate them over western North America. Further investigation into CWB over the Pacific region suggests a potential connection between the underestimation of CWB and the underestimated 200hPa jet shear.

Deciphering Winter Seasonal Predictions for Florida: Insights from High-resolution Dynamic Downscaling
By  C B Jayasankar
Description: This study illustrates the value of experimental seasonal CLImate Forecasts for Florida (CLIFF), which is a high resolution (10-km grid), 30 ensemble member dynamic downscaling from a corresponding 5 ensemble member global winter seasonal forecasts over Florida through extensive verification of its seasonal precipitation anomalies. The winter seasonal rainfall anomalies in Florida are often regarded as the sentinel site for the strong influence of ENSO teleconnections. However, we find it is true only for warm (El Niño) years when seasonal rainfall anomalies across Florida are more homogenous and are well above seasonal mean climatology. But in many cold (La Niña) and ENSO-neutral years, the seasonal rainfall anomalies are more heterogeneous. This feature is verified in CLIFF. We attribute this skill to the spatial resolution and the ensemble spread of CLIFF. In other words, CLIFF by way of its 10-km horizontal resolution and 30 ensemble members can permit the internal variations, which we deem is necessary to resolve the uncertainties of the seasonal evolution of winter seasonal rain in the absence of strong external forcing. CLIFF can provide such useful seasonal forecasts at the scale of the Water Management Districts and watersheds of major utilities in Florida that are not otherwise available from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) seasonal outlooks.

NOTE: Please feel free to forward/share this invitation with other groups/disciplines that might be interested in this talk/topic. All are welcome to attend.

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