[Eoas-seminar] TODAY - MET Seminar - Dr. Jhordanne Jones (Purdue University/UCAR CPAESS)

[eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu]

A final reminder of today’s MET seminar, now!
________________________________
From: Eoas-seminar <eoas-seminar-bounces at lists.fsu.edu> on behalf of eoas-seminar--- via Eoas-seminar <eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu>
Sent: Thursday, February 22, 2024 8:00:04 AM
To: eoas-seminar--- via Eoas-seminar <eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu>
Subject: [Eoas-seminar] TODAY - MET Seminar - Dr. Jhordanne Jones (Purdue University/UCAR CPAESS)

Dear all,

This is a reminder of today’s MET seminar given by Dr.  Jhordanne Jones on  “Is sub-seasonal to seasonal tropical cyclone predictability changing under global warming?”

Snacks at 3, talk at 3:15. Contact Allison Wing if you need a Zoom link, otherwise see you in 1044!

Cheers,

Allison

--------------------------------------------
Allison A. Wing, Ph.D.
Werner A. and Shirley B. Baum Professor
Associate Professor, Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science
Florida State University
awing at fsu.edu

On Feb 16, 2024, at 1:28 PM, eoas-seminar--- via Eoas-seminar <eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu> wrote:

Dear all,

Please join us next Thursday February 22 for a Meteorology seminar given by Dr. Jhordanne Jones<https://www.jhordannejones.com/>. Dr. Jones is a NOAA Climate & Global Change Postdoctoral Fellow at Purdue University, and she will speak about “Is sub-seasonal to seasonal tropical cyclone predictability changing under global warming?”  (abstract below)

Dr. Jones will be joining us virtually, but we will still gather together in EOA 1044. If you have a medical excuse or other approved work off-campus, please contact Allison Wing (awing at fsu.edu<mailto:awing at fsu.edu>) for the Zoom link. Otherwise we look forward to seeing everyone in 1044.

Dr. Jones is also available for individual Zoom meetings on Thursday. If you’d like to meet with her, please contact Allison Wing.

DATE: Thursday February 22
SEMINAR TIME: Refreshments at 3 PM, Talk 3:15 - 4:15 PM
SEMINAR LOCATION: EOA 1044 (Speaker remote)
SPEAKER: Dr. Jhordanne Jones<https://www.jhordannejones.com/>

TITLE: Is sub-seasonal to seasonal tropical cyclone predictability changing under global warming?

ABSTRACT: Subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) tropical cyclone prediction at lead times between 2 weeks to 2 months is essential for  preventing disasters, safeguarding livelihoods, and disseminating early warnings for imminent storm activity before and during the hurricane season. Recent projections of global tropical cyclone (TC) activity indicate a likely global increase in the frequency and variability of the most intense TCs under global warming. Concurrently, we expect changes to the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a key source of sub-seasonal predictability. Under global warming, MJO-associated precipitation and zonal wind amplitudes are projected to increase with an eastward shift of MJO-related precipitation. In this talk, I’ll use the ERA5 reanalysis data to characterize and examine observed trends in S2S Atlantic TC predictability and their association with MJO variability. Additionally, given the current uncertainty in the warming pattern simulated by global climate models, I will discuss the implications of the pattern effect for the MJO-Atlantic TC relationship. The key science questions I will address in my talk are:

  *   How are Atlantic TC variability and MJO variability changing?
  *   Which aspects of the changing MJO variability matter for S2S Atlantic TC predictability?
  *   And what are the implications of the pattern effect for these observed trends?

We look forward to seeing you there!

Cheers,

Allison

--------------------------------------------
Allison A. Wing, Ph.D.
Werner A. and Shirley B. Baum Professor
Associate Professor, Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science
Florida State University
awing at fsu.edu

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