[Eoas-seminar] MET Seminar - Thursday September 14 - Dr. Katinka Bellomo (Polytechnic University of Turin)

[eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu]

Dear all,

Please join us next Thursday September 14 for a Meteorology seminar, given by Dr. Katinka Bellomo<https://katinkabellomo.com/> from Polytechnic University of Turin. Dr. Bellomo will speak about “The influence of the AMOC decline on climate change impacts”.  (abstract below) While this is a meteorology seminar, we hope to see some of our oceanography colleagues at the seminar as well given the topic.

Dr. Bellomo will be joining us virtually but we will gather in EOA 1044 to participate in the seminar. If you cannot attend in person due to a medical reason or approved work out of town, please contact Allison Wing (awing at fsu.edu<mailto:awing at fsu.edu>) for remote access. Otherwise, we look forward to seeing everyone in 1044! Please join us for refreshments prior to the beginning of the talk at 3:15 PM.

If you are interested in meeting with the speaker, please contact Allison Wing. Dr. Bellomo is available for virtual meetings earlier in the day before the seminar.

DATE: Thursday September 14
SEMINAR TIME: Refreshments at 3 PM, Talk 3:15 PM - 4:15 PM.
SEMINAR LOCATION: EOA 1044 (Speaker remote)
SPEAKER: Dr. Katinka Bellomo

TITLE: The influence of the AMOC decline on climate change impacts

ABSTRACT:

In climate model simulations of future climate change, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is projected to decline. However, the impacts of this decline, relative to other changes, remain to be identified. In this talk, I will present some recent work in which we address this issue using climate models. First, I will present results of idealized model experiments with state-of-the-art model EC-Earth3. In these experiments, we artificially control the strength of the AMOC, which allows us to compare the impacts of an AMOC decline compared to a control climate. We find that an AMOC decline leads to mean climate changes, including global cooling, widespread drying in the Northern Hemisphere and a southward shift of the ITCZ. We also find an increased frequency of wintertime NAO+ and more extreme precipitation events in northwestern Europe, despite the overall drying. I will then compare these results with model projections of future climate change in the CMIP archives. In simulations of future climate change, there is large consensus among models that the AMOC declines in response to greenhouse gas forcing. However, there exists a large inter-model spread in the amount of the AMOC decline. To investigate the impacts of the inter-model uncertainty in the AMOC response, we group models based on how much the AMOC declines. We find that in models with larger AMOC decline, there is a minimum warming in the North Atlantic, a southward displacement of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone, and a poleward shift of the mid-latitude jet. The changes in the models with smaller AMOC decline are drastically different: there is a relatively larger warming in the North Atlantic, the precipitation response exhibits a wet-get-wetter, dry-get- drier pattern, and there are smaller displacements of the mid-latitude jet. Models projecting a larger AMOC decline also show an increased frequency of wintertime NAO+ compared to models projecting a smaller AMOC decline. Our study indicates that the AMOC is a major source of inter-model uncertainty, which leads to large differences in simulated climate impacts in the near future. Finally, will discuss strategies to further assess the role of AMOC in the climate system, including in climate change projections, and also possible observational constraints that could help us reduced the uncertainty in the AMOC response in model projections of future climate change.

We look forward to seeing you there!

--------------------------------------------
Allison A. Wing, Ph.D.
Werner A. and Shirley B. Baum Professor
Associate Professor, Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science
Florida State University
awing at fsu.edu<mailto:awing at fsu.edu>

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