[Eoas-seminar] Seminar on Friday Feb. 17 at 3:00

[eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu]

Title: Multi-scale Interactions Leading to Tropical Cyclogenesis in 
Sheared Environments

Time and Location: Friday Feb. 17 at 3:00 in EOAS 1050.

Speaker: Chelsea Nam  (Colorado State University)

Abstract: To be or not to be, is the question of tropical cyclogenesis. 
Only a small fraction of tropical disturbances eventually develop into 
tropical cyclones (TCs). Accurate forecasts of tropical cyclogenesis are 
difficult because TC development involves a wide range of scales, from 
the stochastic convective scale to a quasi-balanced large-scale flow. 
The presented research examines the factors that increase uncertainty 
around the multi-scale tropical cyclogenesis problem: vertical wind 
shear (VWS), environmental humidity, and convective organization. These 
factors were explored using multiple data sources, including 
observations such as dual-Doppler radar, dropsonde soundings, satellite 
data for mesoscale case studies, reanalyses data for synoptic and 
climatological analysis, and extensive ensemble mesoscale modeling for 
controlled experiments. The findings herein improve our process-based 
understanding of why moderate VWS, especially in combination with 
environmental dry air, produces unstable and uncertain conditions for TC 
genesis.

Regards,
Mark
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