[Eoas-seminar] MET Seminar Thursday September 22 3:00-4:15 PM: Dr. Danielle Touma (NCAR)

[eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu]

Dear all,

I am pleased to announce our first Meteorology Seminar of the fall semester, which will be given next Thursday September 22 by Dr. Danielle Touma<https://sites.google.com/view/danielle-touma>, an Advanced Study Program (ASP) Postdoctoral Fellow at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). Dr. Touma will speak about "Anthropogenically-driven increases in extreme fire weather conditions and subsequent extreme precipitation events” (abstract below). Her interests include understanding the impact of climate variability and human activity on the characteristics of extreme climate events.

Dr. Touma will be joining us virtually, but we will gather in EOA 1044 to participate in the seminar. If you cannot attend in person due to a medical reason or approved work out of town, please contact Allison Wing (awing at fsu.edu<mailto:awing at fsu.edu>) for remote access. Otherwise, we look forward to seeing everyone in 1044! Please join us at 3 PM for refreshments prior to the beginning of the talk at 3:15 PM.

Graduate students are invited to participate in a student-only Q&A with the speaker at 2:15 PM in EOA 6067. This is a great opportunity to meet an early career scientist and discuss science and work/life/career topics in an informal setting. Dr. Touma is available for other virtual meetings between 1-2 PM on Thursday; please contact Allison Wing (awing at fsu.edu<mailto:awing at fsu.edu>) if you would like to meet with her during that time. If you would like to meet with Dr. Touma at a different time next week, please get in touch with her directly.

We look forward to seeing you next Thursday!

DATE: Thursday September 22
TIME: Refreshments at 3 PM, Talk 3:15 PM - 4:15 PM.
LOCATION: EOA 1044 (speaker remote)
SPEAKER: Dr. Danielle Touma<https://sites.google.com/view/danielle-touma>

TITLE: Anthropogenically-driven increases in extreme fire weather conditions and subsequent extreme precipitation events

ABSTRACT: Anthropogenic climate change is already driving large increases in wildfire frequency and extent globally, a trend expected to continue throughout the 21st century. In this talk, I disentangle the roles of anthropogenic aerosol and greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions, biomass burning and land use/land cover change on extreme fire weather – i.e., dry, warm, and windy conditions that lead to fire ignition and spread. By leveraging the CESM “all-forcing” and “all-but-one-forcing” Large Ensemble experiments, we show that historical greenhouse gas emissions have increased the risk of extreme fire weather in recent decades, and could double this risk in many wildfire-prone regions by the end of the 21st century. While aerosols have generally dampened the risk of extreme wildfire conditions in the past, their effect is diminished and more localized in future projections. These findings provide key insight into the observed and projected changes in wildfire risks and have significant implications for mitigation and adaptation strategies.
Next, I use the all-forcing CESM Large Ensemble to explore the implications of heightened fire weather conditions in future years on the probability of post-fire extreme precipitation over the Western U.S. Generally, we find robust and substantial increases in the likelihood of extreme precipitation occurring after an extreme fire weather event by the end of the 21st century. The frequency of extreme fire weather events followed within one year by at least one spatially co-located extreme rainfall event doubles in California and increases by 700% in the Pacific Northwest. In addition, more than 90% of extreme fire weather events in California, Colorado, and the Pacific Northwest could eventually be followed by at least three spatially co-located extreme rainfall events within 5 years in such a scenario. These temporally compounding events could lead to a greater risk of debris flows and flash floods, magnifying wildfire-related damages incurred by a region.

Cheers,

Allison

On behalf of the MET Seminar Committee

——————————————————
Allison Wing, Ph.D.
Associate Professor
Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science
Florida State University
awing at fsu.edu<mailto:awing at fsu.edu>



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