[Eoas-seminar] Seminar Thursday 10/13/22 3:00pm

[eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu]

Dear All,

Please join us for the Meteorology Seminar on Thursday 10/13/22.

DATE: Thursday October 13
SEMINAR TIME: Refreshments at 3 PM, Talk 3:15 PM - 4:15 PM.
SEMINAR LOCATION: EOA 1044 (speaker remote)
SPEAKER: Dr. Robert West

Robert West - NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory<https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/people/robert-west/>


Title: Interbasin SST as a predictor of seasonal Atlantic hurricane activity

Abstract: Differences in sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) between the tropical Atlantic main development region (MDR) and the tropical Pacific (Niño 3) are known to modulate Atlantic tropical cyclone activity through atmospheric teleconnections. However, it is unknown whether the relative local-remote SST contributions that impact tropical cyclone activity change during the Atlantic hurricane season (June-November). This work explores the seasonality of Pacific and Atlantic contributions to Atlantic hurricane activity and finds that while MDR and Niño 3 SSTAs are equally important for late-season (September–November) activity, early-season (June-August) activity is largely modulated by MDR SSTAs. This reflects the increased (reduced) variance of MDR (Niño 3) SSTAs in the early-season due to their phase locking to the seasonal cycle. Further analysis yields skillful seasonal forecasts of above- and below-average accumulated cyclone energy using an MDR-Niño 3 interbasin index derived from hindcasts of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble. However, the prediction skill for MDR SSTAs is lower than that of Niño 3 SSTAs, suggesting that increasing the prediction skill for MDR SSTAs is key to improving seasonal outlooks.


Thanks,

Philip


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