[Eoas-seminar] MET Seminar Thursday Dec 2 at 3 PM: Dr. Jie Chen (Princeton/GFDL)
eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu
eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu
Mon Nov 29 10:20:15 EST 2021
Please join us this Thursday December 2 at 3 PM on Zoom for our last Meteorology seminar of the semester, which will be given by Dr. Jie Chen (Princeton/GFDL). She will discuss “Understanding the post-landfall evolution of tropical cyclone wind field: From idealized world to real world”. Her abstract and the Zoom information is below.
Meeting ID: 950 2862 3253
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We look forward to seeing you there!
Understanding the Post-landfall Evolution of Tropical Cyclone Wind Field: From Idealized World to Real World
Post-landfall tropical cyclones (TCs) bring significant hazards, considered as the major environmental challenge for U.S. coastal and even inland regions. This hazard risk could be amplified given the potential that landfalling TCs move and decay more slowly in a warming climate. However, the lack of physical understanding of post-landfall TC greatly inhibits our ability to predict and mitigate hazards in both short-term and long-term risk assessment.
Here in the presentation, I will introduce how we advance the understanding of the post-landfall TC wind field. In my previous work, I investigated the inland evolution of the complete TC wind field by idealizing the complicated landfall process as a transient response of a mature axisymmetric storm to instantaneous surface forcings associated with landfall. In the idealized landfall experiment, the surface beneath a mature storm is roughened or/and dried, each over a range of magnitude. I systematically tested the response and analyzed how each forcing ultimately causes the storm to weaken but via different mechanistic pathways. This part of the work provides a mechanistic foundation for understanding the inland evolution of real storms in nature, and generates a dataset of idealized landfall experiments to test existing TC theories. For TCs over the ocean, existing theoretical predictions for the intensity and wind field have been advanced and tested with observations but not yet applied to post-landfall storms. As a natural next step, I explored the extent to which existing theory formed for TCs over the ocean can explain the response of the intensity and full wind field to idealized landfalls and how we can modify existing theory for inland TCs. This part of the work indicates the potential for existing theory to predict how the TC wind field evolves after landfall. Accounting for the complexities in real-world landfalls, my current work is testing theoretical understandings against various observations and assessing NOAA T-SHiELD real-time post-landfall forecast for U.S. landfalling TCs. This work would help us link physical understanding to real-world cases and evaluate the performance of the leading operational model on TC post-landfall evolution, which is essential for improving the forecasts on any timescale and the inland TC risk assessments.
Allison Wing, Ph.D.
Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science
Florida State University
awing at fsu.edu<mailto:awing at fsu.edu>
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