[Eoas-seminar] Honors in the Major Seminar for Christopher Sala, Tuesday April 6, 2021 at 3:30 PM on zoom

[eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu]

Honor's in the Major Seminar

Speaker: Christopher Sala

Professor: Jon Ahlquist

Title: Investigating annual relationships  between climate indices  and  tropical cyclone ACE values for the North Indian, North Pacific, and North Atlantic Oceans

Time: 3:30 PM, Tuesday, 6 April 2021

Zoom Meeting: https://fsu.zoom.us/j/94192255474?pwd=enhLOWN6UUxrendxN08wWXRtQm5sUT09

Abstract: This study examined statistical relationships in seasonal tropical cyclone activity among Northern Hemisphere ocean basins, in particular the North Indian Ocean. Activity in each basin is measured by the seasonal accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), defined as the sum of the squares of the maximum sustained surface wind speed in knots measured every six hours for all named storms while they are at least tropical storm intensity (≥ 34 kt). Specifically, we used annual ACE time series for 1982-2016 (35 years) for the North Indian, North Pacific (and subdivided into eastern and western), and North Atlantic Oceans. We augmented the ACE values with 15 teleconnection indices for 1989-2011 (23 years) from various sources.
     Although ACE is anticorrelated between the North Pacific and the North Atlantic, annual ACE values for the North Indian Ocean show negligible simultaneous correlation with ACE values for either the North Pacific or North Atlantic Oceans. However, North Indian Ocean ACE has correlations of 0.44, 0.33, and 0.21 with the eastern North Pacific ACE for 1, 2, and 3 years earlier. Therefore, ACE for the eastern North Pacific has a modest predictive value for North Indian Ocean ACE.
     The two largest simultaneous correlations with North Indian Ocean ACE were with West Pacific (WP) teleconnection pattern and the May-November values of the first primary component of the velocity potential Madden-Julian Oscillation (VPM1). The North Pacific Ocean ACE was the ENSO Index (MEI.v2) for the annual and June-November time scales. The North Atlantic Ocean's largest simultaneous correlations were the VPM1 for the annual time scale and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the June-November time scale.



Shel McGuire
Florida State University
Academic Program Specialist
Department of Earth, Ocean, & Atmospheric Science
1011 Academic Way, 2019 EOA Building
Tallahassee, FL 32306
850-644-8582
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