From eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu Mon Jun 8 09:06:05 2020 From: eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu (eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu) Date: Mon, 8 Jun 2020 13:06:05 +0000 Subject: [Eoas-seminar] Geology Dissertation Defense - Jarrett Cruz - 6/22, 10am - Zoom Message-ID: Title: UTILIZING INDIAN OCEAN CALCAREOUS NANNOFOSSIL BIOSTRATIGRAPHY OF MIOCENE SEDIMENTS TO INVESTIGATE TECTONIC AND CLIMATIC FORCING DURING THE EVOLUTION OF THE HIMALAYAS Major Professor: Bill Parker Zoom Meeting only - Meeting ID: 904 318 2544 -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu Tue Jun 9 08:44:44 2020 From: eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu (eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu) Date: Tue, 9 Jun 2020 12:44:44 +0000 Subject: [Eoas-seminar] Meteorology MS Defense for Ryan Remondelli, Tuesday, June 23, 2020, 3:30 PM, on Zoom TBD Message-ID: Meteorology Seminar Ryan Remondelli M.S. Meteorology Candidate Title: SIMULATION OF HISTORICAL NEW ENGLAND TROPICAL CYCLONES: PREDICTABILITY IMPLICATIONS AND THEIR METEOROLOGICAL INSIGHT Major Professor: Dr. Robert Hart Date: Tuesday, June 23rd, 2020 Time: 3:30 PM Location: Zoom Meeting URL: TBD New England (NE) Tropical Cyclones (TCs) can produce significant damage, as well as provide increased forecast track and intensity complexity for forecasters. This is the result of the fact that these TCs recurve, often undergo extratropical transition, and are also forced via midlatitude dynamics that can act as a source of simulation track, structural, and intensity uncertainty. Consequently, not only do forecasters still struggle with forecasting NE TCs in real-time, but the region has had few such cases to quantify our ability to predict these storms in an age when they can now be explicitly resolved by Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP). The track predictability of historical landfalling NE TCs was explored in this study through hindcasts of all landfalling NE TCs from 1900-2011. Utilizing version 4.1.1 of the Weather Forecast and Research Model Advanced Research WRF (WRF-ARW) with two outer fixed domains (27 km, 9km), as well as a vortex-following inner domain (3 km), 18 cases were examined beginning 7 days prior landfall. As a result of utilizing relatively coarse ERA-20C analysis as boundary and initial conditions, WRF's vortex removal and insertion scheme was employed to provide more plausible initial conditions for the hindcasts that can be provided by ERA-20C alone. The resulting total-track, cross-track, and along-track errors were calculated and then compared to various recent model track forecast errors as well as the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) official track forecast errors. The evolution of the synoptic-scale patterns leading up to the time of landfall for these 18 TCs was then investigated. The distance of the simulated TCs to their surrounding troughs and ridges was also investigated. An objective climatology of the nearby trough, ridge, and jet axis locations was determined and analyzed. This analysis found that the average predictability of the historical NE TCs was low compared to a recent NHC climatology of forecast track errors. Lead times for when landfall projections occurred on long track Main Development Region storms were between 2 and 3 days before landfall. These results argue that the predictability of NE TCs utilizing a state of the art WRF model remains limited, giving inadequate lead time for emergency managers and forecasters. Shel McGuire Florida State University Academic Program Specialist Department of Earth, Ocean, & Atmospheric Science 1011 Academic Way, 2019 EOA Building Tallahassee, FL 32306 850-644-8582 -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu Wed Jun 10 12:58:16 2020 From: eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu (eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu) Date: Wed, 10 Jun 2020 12:58:16 -0400 Subject: [Eoas-seminar] Margaret Vogel's dissertation defense, Thursday June 25, at 1:00 p.m. In-Reply-To: <69823977-E384-4591-B079-17477D87294B@bio.fsu.edu> References: <69823977-E384-4591-B079-17477D87294B@bio.fsu.edu> Message-ID: Olivia Mason and I are very pleased (and a little sad) to announce that Maggie Vogel will be defending her Ph.D. dissertation titled ?Determinants of microbial community composition and diversity in the phyllosphere of the seagrass/Thalassia testudinu/m? on Thursday June 25 at 1:00 pm. ?Maggie has spent the last few years applying her love of microbiology to understanding the communities found on the leaves of turtle grass, an ecological and economically critical coastal marine plant. ?Her research includes observation studies, reciprocal transplants in the field, and a large tank study to determine how the microbial community varies with environmental conditions of the plant. The defense will be conducted via Zoom and a link is provided below. ?We are all learning how to deal with Zoom defenses: ?we ask that the general audience mute the microphones and turn off their cameras for the duration of the formal presentation. ?Questions can either be sent to me on chat during or immediately after the talk, or just use chat to let me know that you want to ask a question. Hope to ?see? you all at Maggie?s defense. T. E. Miller miller at bio.fsu.edu & Olivia Mason omason at fsu.edu Margaret Vogel is inviting you to a scheduled Zoom meeting. Topic: Margaret Vogel Dissertation Defense Time: Jun 25, 2020 01:00 PM Eastern Time (US and Canada) *Join Zoom Meeting* *https://fsu.zoom.us/j/99584712839* *Meeting ID: 995 8471 2839* One tap mobile +13462487799,,99584712839# US (Houston) +16699009128,,99584712839# US (San Jose) Dial by your location ? ? ? ? +1 346 248 7799 US (Houston) ? ? ? ? +1 669 900 9128 US (San Jose) ? ? ? ? +1 253 215 8782 US (Tacoma) ? ? ? ? +1 312 626 6799 US (Chicago) ? ? ? ? +1 646 558 8656 US (New York) ? ? ? ? +1 301 715 8592 US (Germantown) Meeting ID: 995 8471 2839 Find your local number: https://fsu.zoom.us/u/ad5snWXlZ -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu Mon Jun 15 16:00:36 2020 From: eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu (eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu) Date: Mon, 15 Jun 2020 20:00:36 +0000 Subject: [Eoas-seminar] Meteorology MS Defense for Evan Jones, Monday, June 29, 2020, 3:00 PM, on Zoom TBD Message-ID: Meteorology Seminar Evan Jones M.S. Meteorology Candidate Title: REPRESENTATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE PRECIPITATION IN GLOBAL REANALYSIS DATASETS Major Professors: Dr. Allison Wing and Dr. Rhys Parfitt Date: Monday, June 29, 2020 Time: 3:00 PM Location: Zoom Meeting URL: TBD ABSTRACT Each year, tropical cyclones (TCs) impact communities around the world by producing rainfall with devastating damage, loss of life and can contribute a non-trivial amount to climatological annual mean rainfall. The representation of TC precipitation in datasets such as reanalyses is thus crucial for both forecasting purposes and climate projections. This study quantifies the spread in TC precipitation across eight different reanalysis datasets: CFSR, ERA-20C, ERA-40, ERA5, ERA-Interim, JRA-55, MERRA-2 and NOAA-20C. TC precipitation is assigned using two TC tracking methods, manual tracking and objective tracking, via a fixed radius. Climatological TC precipitation and TC precipitation fraction assigned using TempestExtremes is generally lower than that assigned using IBTrACS, owing to the fewer number of TCs tracked in TempestExtremes and position differences between the best-track and reanalyses, as well as the underestimation of reanalysis TC intensity. Both methods capture the same general spatial patterns of TC precipitation and TC precipitation fraction globally. Compared to TRMM, assignment from both methods provides less annual average TC precipitation and TC precipitation fraction over most areas, with the exception of land and some ocean basins. In most basins, with the exception of the West Pacific (WPAC), and most reanalyses, with the exception of MERRA-2, the systematic bias toward IBTrACS-derived TC precipitation is greatly minimized by considering TC precipitation normalized by TC density. The relative spread across reanalyses in TC precipitation is larger for TC precipitation derived from TempestExtremes than from IBTrACS, where the East Pacific (EPAC) has a higher relative spread than the WPAC with both tracking methods. Partitioning by Saffir-Simpson best-track intensity, the largest relative spread across reanalyses in TC precipitation is from TCs of major hurricane strength. A comparison of IBTrACS-derived extratropical phase TC precipitation in the North Atlantic shows that there is a large relative spread across the reanalyses, likely a limitation of the fixed radius method when assigning extratropical phase precipitation. Finally, a comparison of mean precipitation rate in TCs as a function of reanalysis MSLP shows that the spread across reanalyses is larger for higher intensity TCs, but that the inability of reanalyses to properly represent highest intensity and very weak TCs also contributes. Overall, TC precipitation in reanalyses is not only a function of their resolution or any TC pre-processing that is done, but also how it assimilates data, parameterizes complex processes, and configures model physics. Shel McGuire Florida State University Academic Program Specialist Department of Earth, Ocean, & Atmospheric Science 1011 Academic Way, 2019 EOA Building Tallahassee, FL 32306 850-644-8582 -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu Tue Jun 16 08:35:16 2020 From: eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu (eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu) Date: Tue, 16 Jun 2020 12:35:16 +0000 Subject: [Eoas-seminar] Meteorology MS Defense for Ryan Remondelli, Tuesday, June 23, 2020, 3:30 PM, on Zoom 9102362819 Message-ID: Meteorology Seminar Ryan Remondelli M.S. Meteorology Candidate Title: SIMULATION OF HISTORICAL NEW ENGLAND TROPICAL CYCLONES: PREDICTABILITY IMPLICATIONS AND THEIR METEOROLOGICAL INSIGHT Major Professor: Dr. Robert Hart Date: Tuesday, June 23rd, 2020 Time: 3:30 PM Location: Zoom Meeting URL: https://fsu.zoom.us/j/91023626819 New England (NE) Tropical Cyclones (TCs) can produce significant damage, as well as provide increased forecast track and intensity complexity for forecasters. This is the result of the fact that these TCs recurve, often undergo extratropical transition, and are also forced via midlatitude dynamics that can act as a source of simulation track, structural, and intensity uncertainty. Consequently, not only do forecasters still struggle with forecasting NE TCs in real-time, but the region has had few such cases to quantify our ability to predict these storms in an age when they can now be explicitly resolved by Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP). The track predictability of historical landfalling NE TCs was explored in this study through hindcasts of all landfalling NE TCs from 1900-2011. Utilizing version 4.1.1 of the Weather Forecast and Research Model Advanced Research WRF (WRF-ARW) with two outer fixed domains (27 km, 9km), as well as a vortex-following inner domain (3 km), 18 cases were examined beginning 7 days prior landfall. As a result of utilizing relatively coarse ERA-20C analysis as boundary and initial conditions, WRF's vortex removal and insertion scheme was employed to provide more plausible initial conditions for the hindcasts that can be provided by ERA-20C alone. The resulting total-track, cross-track, and along-track errors were calculated and then compared to various recent model track forecast errors as well as the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) official track forecast errors. The evolution of the synoptic-scale patterns leading up to the time of landfall for these 18 TCs was then investigated. The distance of the simulated TCs to their surrounding troughs and ridges was also investigated. An objective climatology of the nearby trough, ridge, and jet axis locations was determined and analyzed. This analysis found that the average predictability of the historical NE TCs was low compared to a recent NHC climatology of forecast track errors. Lead times for when landfall projections occurred on long track Main Development Region storms were between 2 and 3 days before landfall. These results argue that the predictability of NE TCs utilizing a state of the art WRF model remains limited, giving inadequate lead time for emergency managers and forecasters. Shel McGuire Florida State University Academic Program Specialist Department of Earth, Ocean, & Atmospheric Science 1011 Academic Way, 2019 EOA Building Tallahassee, FL 32306 850-644-8582 -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu Fri Jun 19 08:16:12 2020 From: eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu (eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu) Date: Fri, 19 Jun 2020 12:16:12 +0000 Subject: [Eoas-seminar] Reminder: Geology Dissertation Defense - Jarrett Cruz - 6/22, 10am - Zoom Message-ID: Title: UTILIZING INDIAN OCEAN CALCAREOUS NANNOFOSSIL BIOSTRATIGRAPHY OF MIOCENE SEDIMENTS TO INVESTIGATE TECTONIC AND CLIMATIC FORCING DURING THE EVOLUTION OF THE HIMALAYAS Major Professor: Bill Parker Zoom Meeting https://zoom.us/j/9043182544?pwd=eDZUZ2tNNTRxUlUyZ1o0YkpOby80Zz09 Meeting ID: 904 318 2544 Password: paleo -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- _______________________________________________ Eoas-seminar mailing list Eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu https://lists.fsu.edu/mailman/listinfo/eoas-seminar From eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu Mon Jun 22 09:27:06 2020 From: eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu (eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu) Date: Mon, 22 Jun 2020 13:27:06 +0000 Subject: [Eoas-seminar] Oceanography Dissertation Defense - Taylor Shropshire - June 25, 3pm - Zoom Message-ID: Title: "MODELING PELAGIC ECOSYSTEMS AND LARVAL ATLANTIC BLUEFIN TUNA DYNAMICS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO UNDER CURRENT AND FUTURE CLIMATE CONDITIONS" Major Professors: Mike Stukel and Eric Chassignet Zoom Meeting https://fsu.zoom.us/s/93489262225 Meeting ID: 93489262225 -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu Sun Jun 21 10:10:19 2020 From: eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu (eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu) Date: Sun, 21 Jun 2020 10:10:19 -0400 Subject: [Eoas-seminar] Margaret Vogel's dissertation defense, Thursday June 25, at 1:00 p.m. In-Reply-To: References: <69823977-E384-4591-B079-17477D87294B@bio.fsu.edu> Message-ID: Dear EOAS, Maggie?s defense will not be held on Thursday due to unforeseen circumstances. ?We hope to reschedule in a week or so. On 6/10/20 12:58 PM, eoas-seminar--- via Eoas-seminar wrote: > Olivia Mason and I are very pleased (and a little sad) to announce > that Maggie Vogel will be defending her Ph.D. dissertation titled > ?Determinants of microbial community composition and diversity in the > phyllosphere of the seagrass/Thalassia testudinu/m? on Thursday June > 25 at 1:00 pm. ?Maggie has spent the last few years applying her love > of microbiology to understanding the communities found on the leaves > of turtle grass, an ecological and economically critical coastal > marine plant. ?Her research includes observation studies, reciprocal > transplants in the field, and a large tank study to determine how the > microbial community varies with environmental conditions of the plant. > > The defense will be conducted via Zoom and a link is provided below. > ?We are all learning how to deal with Zoom defenses: ?we ask that the > general audience mute the microphones and turn off their cameras for > the duration of the formal presentation. ?Questions can either be sent > to me on chat during or immediately after the talk, or just use chat > to let me know that you want to ask a question. > > Hope to ?see? you all at Maggie?s defense. > > > T. E. Miller > miller at bio.fsu.edu > > & > > Olivia Mason > omason at fsu.edu > > > Margaret Vogel is inviting you to a scheduled Zoom meeting. > > Topic: Margaret Vogel Dissertation Defense > Time: Jun 25, 2020 01:00 PM Eastern Time (US and Canada) > > *Join Zoom Meeting* > *https://fsu.zoom.us/j/99584712839* > > *Meeting ID: 995 8471 2839* > One tap mobile > +13462487799,,99584712839# US (Houston) > +16699009128,,99584712839# US (San Jose) > > Dial by your location > ? ? ? ? +1 346 248 7799 US (Houston) > ? ? ? ? +1 669 900 9128 US (San Jose) > ? ? ? ? +1 253 215 8782 US (Tacoma) > ? ? ? ? +1 312 626 6799 US (Chicago) > ? ? ? ? +1 646 558 8656 US (New York) > ? ? ? ? +1 301 715 8592 US (Germantown) > Meeting ID: 995 8471 2839 > Find your local number: https://fsu.zoom.us/u/ad5snWXlZ > > > _______________________________________________ > Eoas-seminar mailing list > Eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu > https://lists.fsu.edu/mailman/listinfo/eoas-seminar -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu Mon Jun 22 11:25:39 2020 From: eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu (eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu) Date: Mon, 22 Jun 2020 15:25:39 +0000 Subject: [Eoas-seminar] Oceanography Thesis Defense - Carrie O'Reilly - July 1, 11am - Zoom Message-ID: Title - The Taylor Energy Oil Spill: Implications for Marine Oil Spill Science and Policy Major Professor: Ian MacDonald Zoom Meeting Zoom link - https://fsu.zoom.us/j/96130867237 Meeting ID 96130867237 -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu Mon Jun 22 11:31:42 2020 From: eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu (eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu) Date: Mon, 22 Jun 2020 15:31:42 +0000 Subject: [Eoas-seminar] Meteorology MS Defense for Ryan Remondelli, Tuesday, June 23, 2020, 3:30 PM, on Zoom 9102362819 Message-ID: Meteorology Seminar Ryan Remondelli M.S. Meteorology Candidate Title: SIMULATION OF HISTORICAL NEW ENGLAND TROPICAL CYCLONES: PREDICTABILITY IMPLICATIONS AND THEIR METEOROLOGICAL INSIGHT Major Professor: Dr. Robert Hart Date: Tuesday, June 23rd, 2020 Time: 3:30 PM Location: Zoom Meeting URL: https://fsu.zoom.us/j/91023626819 New England (NE) Tropical Cyclones (TCs) can produce significant damage, as well as provide increased forecast track and intensity complexity for forecasters. This is the result of the fact that these TCs recurve, often undergo extratropical transition, and are also forced via midlatitude dynamics that can act as a source of simulation track, structural, and intensity uncertainty. Consequently, not only do forecasters still struggle with forecasting NE TCs in real-time, but the region has had few such cases to quantify our ability to predict these storms in an age when they can now be explicitly resolved by Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP). The track predictability of historical landfalling NE TCs was explored in this study through hindcasts of all landfalling NE TCs from 1900-2011. Utilizing version 4.1.1 of the Weather Forecast and Research Model Advanced Research WRF (WRF-ARW) with two outer fixed domains (27 km, 9km), as well as a vortex-following inner domain (3 km), 18 cases were examined beginning 7 days prior landfall. As a result of utilizing relatively coarse ERA-20C analysis as boundary and initial conditions, WRF's vortex removal and insertion scheme was employed to provide more plausible initial conditions for the hindcasts that can be provided by ERA-20C alone. The resulting total-track, cross-track, and along-track errors were calculated and then compared to various recent model track forecast errors as well as the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) official track forecast errors. The evolution of the synoptic-scale patterns leading up to the time of landfall for these 18 TCs was then investigated. The distance of the simulated TCs to their surrounding troughs and ridges was also investigated. An objective climatology of the nearby trough, ridge, and jet axis locations was determined and analyzed. This analysis found that the average predictability of the historical NE TCs was low compared to a recent NHC climatology of forecast track errors. Lead times for when landfall projections occurred on long track Main Development Region storms were between 2 and 3 days before landfall. These results argue that the predictability of NE TCs utilizing a state of the art WRF model remains limited, giving inadequate lead time for emergency managers and forecasters. Shel McGuire Florida State University Academic Program Specialist Department of Earth, Ocean, & Atmospheric Science 1011 Academic Way, 2019 EOA Building Tallahassee, FL 32306 850-644-8582 -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu Mon Jun 22 12:48:40 2020 From: eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu (eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu) Date: Mon, 22 Jun 2020 16:48:40 +0000 Subject: [Eoas-seminar] Oceanography Thesis Defense - Jennifer Rogers - June 26, 10am - Zoom Message-ID: Title: Changes to Modern and Aged Dissolved Organic Matter Inputs into the Kolyma River Major Professor: Rob Spencer Zoom Meeting https://fsu.zoom.us/j/91736447364 Meeting ID: 917 3644 7364 -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu Mon Jun 22 15:05:45 2020 From: eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu (eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu) Date: Mon, 22 Jun 2020 19:05:45 +0000 Subject: [Eoas-seminar] Meteorology MS Defense for Evan Jones, Monday, June 29, 2020, 3:00 PM, on Zoom 93373177597 Message-ID: Meteorology Seminar Evan Jones M.S. Meteorology Candidate Title: REPRESENTATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE PRECIPITATION IN GLOBAL REANALYSIS DATASETS Major Professor: Dr. Allison Wing and Dr. Rhys Parfitt Date: Monday, June 29, 2020 Time: 3:00 PM Location: Zoom Meeting URL: https://fsu.zoom.us/j/93373177597 ABSTRACT Each year, tropical cyclones (TCs) impact communities around the world by producing rainfall with devastating damage, loss of life and can contribute a non-trivial amount to climatological annual mean rainfall. The representation of TC precipitation in datasets such as reanalyses is thus crucial for both forecasting purposes and climate projections. This study quantifies the spread in TC precipitation across eight different reanalysis datasets: CFSR, ERA-20C, ERA-40, ERA5, ERA-Interim, JRA-55, MERRA-2 and NOAA-20C. TC precipitation is assigned using two TC tracking methods, manual tracking and objective tracking, via a fixed radius. Climatological TC precipitation and TC precipitation fraction assigned using TempestExtremes is generally lower than that assigned using IBTrACS, owing to the fewer number of TCs tracked in TempestExtremes and position differences between the best-track and reanalyses, as well as the underestimation of reanalysis TC intensity. Both methods capture the same general spatial patterns of TC precipitation and TC precipitation fraction globally. Compared to TRMM, assignment from both methods provides less annual average TC precipitation and TC precipitation fraction over most areas, with the exception of land and some ocean basins. In most basins, with the exception of the West Pacific (WPAC), and most reanalyses, with the exception of MERRA-2, the systematic bias toward IBTrACS-derived TC precipitation is greatly minimized by considering TC precipitation normalized by TC density. The relative spread across reanalyses in TC precipitation is larger for TC precipitation derived from TempestExtremes than from IBTrACS, where the East Pacific (EPAC) has a higher relative spread than the WPAC with both tracking methods. Partitioning by Saffir-Simpson best-track intensity, the largest relative spread across reanalyses in TC precipitation is from TCs of major hurricane strength. A comparison of IBTrACS-derived extratropical phase TC precipitation in the North Atlantic shows that there is a large relative spread across the reanalyses, likely a limitation of the fixed radius method when assigning extratropical phase precipitation. Finally, a comparison of mean precipitation rate in TCs as a function of reanalysis MSLP shows that the spread across reanalyses is larger for higher intensity TCs, but that the inability of reanalyses to properly represent highest intensity and very weak TCs also contributes. Overall, TC precipitation in reanalyses is not only a function of their resolution or any TC pre-processing that is done, but also how it assimilates data, parameterizes complex processes, and configures model physics. Shel McGuire Florida State University Academic Program Specialist Department of Earth, Ocean, & Atmospheric Science 1011 Academic Way, 2019 EOA Building Tallahassee, FL 32306 850-644-8582 -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu Tue Jun 23 15:21:54 2020 From: eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu (eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu) Date: Tue, 23 Jun 2020 19:21:54 +0000 Subject: [Eoas-seminar] Meteorology MS Defense for Ryan Remondelli, Tuesday, June 23, 2020, 3:30 PM, on Zoom 9102362819 Message-ID: Meteorology Seminar Ryan Remondelli M.S. Meteorology Candidate Title: SIMULATION OF HISTORICAL NEW ENGLAND TROPICAL CYCLONES: PREDICTABILITY IMPLICATIONS AND THEIR METEOROLOGICAL INSIGHT Major Professor: Dr. Robert Hart Date: Tuesday, June 23rd, 2020 Time: 3:30 PM Location: Zoom Meeting URL: https://fsu.zoom.us/j/91023626819 New England (NE) Tropical Cyclones (TCs) can produce significant damage, as well as provide increased forecast track and intensity complexity for forecasters. This is the result of the fact that these TCs recurve, often undergo extratropical transition, and are also forced via midlatitude dynamics that can act as a source of simulation track, structural, and intensity uncertainty. Consequently, not only do forecasters still struggle with forecasting NE TCs in real-time, but the region has had few such cases to quantify our ability to predict these storms in an age when they can now be explicitly resolved by Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP). The track predictability of historical landfalling NE TCs was explored in this study through hindcasts of all landfalling NE TCs from 1900-2011. Utilizing version 4.1.1 of the Weather Forecast and Research Model Advanced Research WRF (WRF-ARW) with two outer fixed domains (27 km, 9km), as well as a vortex-following inner domain (3 km), 18 cases were examined beginning 7 days prior landfall. As a result of utilizing relatively coarse ERA-20C analysis as boundary and initial conditions, WRF's vortex removal and insertion scheme was employed to provide more plausible initial conditions for the hindcasts that can be provided by ERA-20C alone. The resulting total-track, cross-track, and along-track errors were calculated and then compared to various recent model track forecast errors as well as the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) official track forecast errors. The evolution of the synoptic-scale patterns leading up to the time of landfall for these 18 TCs was then investigated. The distance of the simulated TCs to their surrounding troughs and ridges was also investigated. An objective climatology of the nearby trough, ridge, and jet axis locations was determined and analyzed. This analysis found that the average predictability of the historical NE TCs was low compared to a recent NHC climatology of forecast track errors. Lead times for when landfall projections occurred on long track Main Development Region storms were between 2 and 3 days before landfall. These results argue that the predictability of NE TCs utilizing a state of the art WRF model remains limited, giving inadequate lead time for emergency managers and forecasters. Shel McGuire Florida State University Academic Program Specialist Department of Earth, Ocean, & Atmospheric Science 1011 Academic Way, 2019 EOA Building Tallahassee, FL 32306 850-644-8582 -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu Thu Jun 25 08:42:12 2020 From: eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu (eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu) Date: Thu, 25 Jun 2020 12:42:12 +0000 Subject: [Eoas-seminar] Reminder: Oceanography Dissertation Defense - Taylor Shropshire - June 25, 3pm - Zoom Message-ID: Title: Modeling pelagic ecosystems and larval Atlantic Bluefin Tuna dynamics in the Gulf of Mexico under current and future climate conditions Major Professors: Mike Stukel and Eric Chassignet Join Zoom Meeting https://fsu.zoom.us/j/93489262225 Meeting ID: 934 8926 2225 -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu Thu Jun 25 14:03:51 2020 From: eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu (eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu) Date: Thu, 25 Jun 2020 18:03:51 +0000 Subject: [Eoas-seminar] Geology Thesis Defense - James Eke - July 9, 10am - Zoom Message-ID: Title: Geology of the Mountville 7.5' Quadrangle, Georgia and Preliminary Investigation of the 'Odessadale' Granite Gneiss of the Opelika Group Major Professor: Jim Tull Zoom Meeting https://fsu.zoom.us/j/97533912891 Meeting ID: 975 3391 2891 -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu Thu Jun 25 17:04:09 2020 From: eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu (eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu) Date: Thu, 25 Jun 2020 21:04:09 +0000 Subject: [Eoas-seminar] Reminder: Oceanography Thesis Defense - Jennifer Rogers - June 26, 10am - Zoom Message-ID: Title: Changes to Modern and Aged Dissolved Organic Matter Inputs into the Kolyma River Major Professor: Rob Spencer Zoom Meeting https://fsu.zoom.us/j/91736447364 Meeting ID: 917 3644 7364 -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu Mon Jun 29 09:58:23 2020 From: eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu (eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu) Date: Mon, 29 Jun 2020 13:58:23 +0000 Subject: [Eoas-seminar] Meteorology MS Defense for Evan Jones, Monday, June 29, 2020, 3:00 PM, on Zoom 93373177597 Message-ID: Meteorology Seminar Evan Jones M.S. Meteorology Candidate Title: REPRESENTATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE PRECIPITATION IN GLOBAL REANALYSIS DATASETS Major Professor: Dr. Allison Wing and Dr. Rhys Parfitt Date: Monday, June 29, 2020 Time: 3:00 PM Location: Zoom Meeting URL: https://fsu.zoom.us/j/93373177597 ABSTRACT Each year, tropical cyclones (TCs) impact communities around the world by producing rainfall with devastating damage, loss of life and can contribute a non-trivial amount to climatological annual mean rainfall. The representation of TC precipitation in datasets such as reanalyses is thus crucial for both forecasting purposes and climate projections. This study quantifies the spread in TC precipitation across eight different reanalysis datasets: CFSR, ERA-20C, ERA-40, ERA5, ERA-Interim, JRA-55, MERRA-2 and NOAA-20C. TC precipitation is assigned using two TC tracking methods, manual tracking and objective tracking, via a fixed radius. Climatological TC precipitation and TC precipitation fraction assigned using TempestExtremes is generally lower than that assigned using IBTrACS, owing to the fewer number of TCs tracked in TempestExtremes and position differences between the best-track and reanalyses, as well as the underestimation of reanalysis TC intensity. Both methods capture the same general spatial patterns of TC precipitation and TC precipitation fraction globally. Compared to TRMM, assignment from both methods provides less annual average TC precipitation and TC precipitation fraction over most areas, with the exception of land and some ocean basins. In most basins, with the exception of the West Pacific (WPAC), and most reanalyses, with the exception of MERRA-2, the systematic bias toward IBTrACS-derived TC precipitation is greatly minimized by considering TC precipitation normalized by TC density. The relative spread across reanalyses in TC precipitation is larger for TC precipitation derived from TempestExtremes than from IBTrACS, where the East Pacific (EPAC) has a higher relative spread than the WPAC with both tracking methods. Partitioning by Saffir-Simpson best-track intensity, the largest relative spread across reanalyses in TC precipitation is from TCs of major hurricane strength. A comparison of IBTrACS-derived extratropical phase TC precipitation in the North Atlantic shows that there is a large relative spread across the reanalyses, likely a limitation of the fixed radius method when assigning extratropical phase precipitation. Finally, a comparison of mean precipitation rate in TCs as a function of reanalysis MSLP shows that the spread across reanalyses is larger for higher intensity TCs, but that the inability of reanalyses to properly represent highest intensity and very weak TCs also contributes. Overall, TC precipitation in reanalyses is not only a function of their resolution or any TC pre-processing that is done, but also how it assimilates data, parameterizes complex processes, and configures model physics. Shel McGuire Florida State University Academic Program Specialist Department of Earth, Ocean, & Atmospheric Science 1011 Academic Way, 2019 EOA Building Tallahassee, FL 32306 850-644-8582 -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: