[Eoas-seminar] EOAS Colloquium speaker Fri Feb 28 at 3:30 in EOA 1050

[eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu]

Our EOAS Colloquium speaker this Fri at 3:30 in EOA 1050 will be Dr. 
Allan Clarke of FSU EOAS.  His title and abstract:

*
*

*How a new understanding of El Niño/La Nina improves climate prediction*

by _Allan J. Clarke _and Xiaolin Zhang

Many theories have been advanced to explain the generation mechanism of 
El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the equatorial 
Pacific.  The Bjerknes mechanism relies on an ocean-atmosphere 
instability involving the anomalous Pacific equatorial zonal sea surface 
temperature (SST) gradient.  Others have suggested that the zonal 
equatorial movement of the equatorial Pacific warm/fresh pool and 
associated air-sea interaction are key to ENSO generation.  Recently El 
Niño flavors related to central Pacific and eastern Pacific SST 
anomalies have been the subject of much community discussion.  Theories 
of El Niño generation and its demise should explain why major El Niño 
indices are phase-locked to the seasonal cycle, why there is a 
persistence barrier to ENSO prediction, and why certain quantities like 
the equatorial warm water volume can foreshadow El Niño. In this seminar 
it will be shown using simple physical arguments that the movement of 
the warm pool right at the equator is crucial to understanding El Niño 
dynamics and our ability to predict El Niño/La Niña.


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