[Eoas-seminar] EOAS Colloquium Speaker Fri Sept 20 at 3:30

eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu
Sun Sep 15 18:13:45 EDT 2019

Please join us for our next speaker in the Fall EOAS Colloquium series, this Friday Sept 20 at 3:30 in CAR 101

Dr. Jon Ahlquist, Assoc. Prof., EOAS

Quantifying Hurricane Forecast Uncertainty
Forecast uncertainty for Hurricane Dorian was at the core of the national news earlier this month. Understanding forecast uncertainty is nontrivial, so this seminar will cover several of the issues involved with quantifying forecast uncertainty, particularly for hurricanes. These will include:
(*) Bayesian vs frequentist view of probability
(*) hurricane track vs intensity errors
(*) the National Hurricane Center Track Forecast Cone (“cone of uncertainty”)
(*) ensemble forecasting and Krishnamurti’s superensemble
(*) spaghetti diagrams
(*) adjusting an ensemble distribution to make it more representative of the actual uncertainty
This talk is aimed at a general EOAS audience. If there is tropical activity on the day of the seminar, we can use forecasts for the day among the examples.
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