[Eoas-seminar] EOAS Seminar: Dr. Salvatore Pascale - Today, 3:00-4:30 - 353LOV

eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu
Thu Mar 1 08:56:02 EST 2018

Dr. Pascale is a candidate for the meteorlogy-physical oceanography faculty position

Present and future dynamics of the North American monsoon
The North American monsoon (NAM) is a key contributor to the total annual precipitation in the arid and semi-arid North American Southwest, and it is often associated with some of the most extreme rainfall events. Future changes in the NAM, therefore, could have significant impacts on regional water resources and natural hazards. How the NAM will change with increasing greenhouse gases, however, remains unclear, not least because coarse horizontal resolution and systematic sea-surface temperature biases limit the reliability of its numerical model simulations.
In this talk, using observations and targeted numerical experiments with a high-resolution global GCM, I will discuss current challenges in the use of global models and possible dynamical and thermodynamical mechanisms implicated in the response of the NAM to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, both in terms of mean and extreme precipitation. These simulations suggest that remote sea-surface warming leads to a reduction in the NAM precipitation through increased atmospheric stability, and hence weakens convection. At the same time, the frequency of localized extreme daily precipitation is likely to increase, consistent with increased precipitable water in a warmer atmosphere. Greenhouse gas induced warming may therefore have significant potential impacts on water resources in the NAM region, requiring improved adaptation measures to cope with the projected reduced and more extreme monsoon rainfall in the American Southwest.

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