[Eoas-seminar] MET Special Seminar Friday March 6th at 3:30

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Thu Feb 26 12:01:48 EST 2015


Meteorology Special Seminar

Dr. Vijay Tallapragada



Hurricane Team Leader & HFIP Development Manager

NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC

College Park, MD


Advanced Operational Global Tropical Cyclone Forecasts from NOAA’s HWRF Modeling System : Progress, Challenges & Opportunities

Friday, March 6th
3:30 PM



Werner A. Baum Seminar Room (353 Love Building)
(Please join us for refreshments served outside room 353 Love @ 3 PM)


ABSTRACT

In the past few years, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) operational high-resolution Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) modeling system has shown significant improvements in the track, intensity, structure, size, and rainfall forecasts, supporting the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) by providing more skillful numerical guidance for operational hurricane forecasts.  With the support from NOAA's Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP), the HWRF team at NCEP's Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) have expanded the scope of the HWRF model for all tropical oceanic basins of the world by providing experimental real-time forecast guidance to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), evolving HWRF into a unique regional model with global coverage.  JTWC has been using the HWRF model guidance in their operations, providing more skillful track and intensity forecasts for all tropical cyclones in the world. The atmosphere-ocean coupled operational HWRF modeling system is also being supported to the research community through NOAA's Developmental Testbed Center (DTC) for academic research and advanced model development for future operational needs.  Through extensive international collaborations, several operational centers in the Asia-Pacific and South Asian regions have adopted HWRF model for their forecast and research applications.

This presentation will highlight the performance of the operational HWRF for tropical cyclones of all ocean basins in 2014, with special emphasis on track and intensity forecasts for a few major landfalling tropical cyclones.  Focused research and developmental efforts, systematic testing and evaluation, and efficient mechanism established for research transitioning to operations (R2O) through support from HFIP will be discussed with reference to the proposed upgrades for the HWRF modeling system in 2015.  HWRF will be upgraded to run at 2km resolution near the storm region with advanced physics improvements, and for the first time, HWRF will run operationally for all global tropical cyclones throughout the year in support of NHC, JTWC, CPHC and National Weather Service (NWS) Pacific Region (PR).

Improvements in predicting the rapid intensity changes, development of advanced inner core data assimilation techniques and application of scale-aware and stochastic physics remain as the high priority area of research.  High-resolution ensembles and global-to-local scale modeling efforts are going to define the future generation tropical cyclone forecasting tools to meet the operational requirements. This presentation will conclude with description of future plans for HWRF in operations, with emphasis on scientific challenges and opportunities for engaging with the HWRF team at EMC to further improve the tropical cyclone forecast skills.

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