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Dear all,
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<div>This is a reminder of our Meteorology seminar TODAY at 3 PM, given by Prof. Kelly Núñez Ocasio from Texas A&M University. She will speak about “Novel Km-scale Regional Modeling Approaches for Current and Future Tropical Weather and Climate” </div>
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<div>See you in 1044!</div>
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<div>Cheers, </div>
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<div>Allison</div>
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Allison Wing, Ph.D.<br>
Werner A. and Shirley B. Baum Professor<br>
Associate Professor, Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science<br>
Florida State University<br>
awing@fsu.edu</div>
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<div>On Apr 1, 2026, at 1:15 PM, eoas-seminar--- via Eoas-seminar <eoas-seminar@lists.fsu.edu> wrote:</div>
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<div style="direction: ltr; font-family: Aptos; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="text-transform: none;">Dear all, </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 16px;">Please join us for a Meteorology seminar on Tuesday April 7 at 3 PM, given by
<a href="https://nam04.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fsites.google.com%2Ftamu.edu%2Fnunez-ocasio%2Fhome&data=05%7C02%7Ceoas-seminar%40lists.fsu.edu%7C39bf85b1094c4685515f08de94a863be%7Ca36450ebdb0642a78d1b026719f701e3%7C0%7C0%7C639111648092629261%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiIsIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&sdata=B3yn148XHQwWbmcDHwYtm%2BVkskwewYehTawL2AeUF%2Fs%3D&reserved=0" originalsrc="https://sites.google.com/tamu.edu/nunez-ocasio/home" originalsrc="https://sites.google.com/tamu.edu/nunez-ocasio/home" data-outlook-id="8cf90d27-285a-4a29-8d70-542ef86f4b11">
Prof. Kelly Núñez Ocasio</a> from Texas A&M University. She will speak about </span>
“<span style="font-size: 16px;"><i>Novel Km-scale Regional Modeling Approaches for Current and Future Tropical Weather and Climate</i></span><i>”</i><span style="font-size: 16px;"><i> </i></span><span style="font-size: 12pt; text-transform: none;">(abstract
below).</span></div>
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<span style="">Prof. Núñez Ocasio will present over Zoom but </span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-transform: none;">we will gather together in 1044 to participate in the seminar. A Zoom link is available for those with a medical excuse
or approved work off-campus. Please contact Allison Wing (</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 134, 240); text-transform: none;"><a href="mailto:awing@fsu.edu" class="ms-outlook-linkify" title="mailto:awing@fsu.edu" data-ogsc="rgb(0, 134, 240)" data-outlook-id="3b775de3-847f-4320-b67e-8836571d6069" style="color: rgb(0, 134, 240);">awing@fsu.edu</a></span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-transform: none;">)
for the link.</span></div>
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DATE: Tuesday April 7</div>
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TIME: 3-4 PM, please join early for refreshments</div>
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LOCATION: EOA 1044 </div>
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SPEAKER: <a href="https://nam04.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fsites.google.com%2Ftamu.edu%2Fnunez-ocasio%2Fhome&data=05%7C02%7Ceoas-seminar%40lists.fsu.edu%7C39bf85b1094c4685515f08de94a863be%7Ca36450ebdb0642a78d1b026719f701e3%7C0%7C0%7C639111648092652173%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiIsIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&sdata=64j5RTbS3V3rxmD5veNkiM3y92u2PoZMF7IMmMWujik%3D&reserved=0" originalsrc="https://sites.google.com/tamu.edu/nunez-ocasio/home" originalsrc="https://sites.google.com/tamu.edu/nunez-ocasio/home" data-outlook-id="3c5b9f66-1d85-4358-b3ea-30c0909e9526">
Prof. Kelly Núñez Ocasio</a></div>
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<span style="text-transform: none;">We look forward to seeing you there!</span></div>
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<span style="text-transform: none;">=========</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Aptos;">Title: </span><span style="font-family: Aptos, Arial; text-transform: none;">Novel Km-scale Regional Modeling Approaches for Current and Future Tropical Weather and Climate</span></div>
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<div style=""><span style="font-family: Aptos; font-size: 12pt; text-transform: none;">Abstract:
</span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt; text-transform: none;">This project investigates how a warming climate will alter the African Easterly Jet (AEJ), the West African Monsoon (WAM), African Easterly Waves (AEWs), and mesoscale convective
systems (MCSs) — the interconnected weather systems that seed tropical cyclones and drive high-impact precipitation events across Africa, the Atlantic basin, and Caribbean. Although the question of how fully formed TCs will be modulated by a warmer and moister
climate has received much attention, how the TC "seeds" respond to climate change remains poorly understood — largely due to the inability of traditional global climate models to adequately resolve convection.<br>
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We address this using first-of-their-kind regional convection-permitting simulations with the Model for Prediction Across-Scales Atmosphere (MPAS-A) and a pseudo-global warming approach. Results show a northward-shifting and intensifying AEJ under mid-century
warming, alongside increased monsoonal moisture. Importantly, future AEWs do not follow the AEJ northward, instead remaining near moisture, while developing AEWs exhibit lower propagation speeds and longer land residence times. These changes are accompanied
by stronger baroclinic and barotropic energy conversions over Africa.<br>
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These dynamics alter MCS behavior in distinct ways: future MCSs generally produce more rainfall over water than land, but AEW-coupled MCSs show the opposite pattern — becoming rainier over land. I will synthesize the results and implications of the last four
research studies from this work and provide an explanation for this divergence, specifically why AEW-MCS coupling dynamics differ fundamentally from general MCS thermodynamics.<br>
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In the second part of the talk, I turn to Mesoamerica and the Caribbean, introducing the Mesoamerica Affinity Group (MAAG), an NSF NCAR-supported initiative promoting collaborative, high-resolution climate research, including a convection-permitting MPAS-A
simulation of Hurricane Maria (2017).</span></div>
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<div style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">---------------------------------------------------</div>
<div style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">Allison A. Wing, Ph.D.</div>
<div style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">Werner A. and Shirley B. Baum Associate Professor</div>
<div style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science</div>
<div style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">Florida State University</div>
<div style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><a href="mailto:awing@fsu.edu" data-outlook-id="9decf4dc-2528-430e-b078-4eba8dfb96bd" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">awing@fsu.edu</a></div>
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