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<b><i>"Principle-Based Climate Feedback Framework and Its Application for Adept Predictions of Global Warming from Climate Mean States"</i></b></div>
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<b>Ming Cai</b></div>
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Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science (EOAS)</div>
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Florida State University (FSU) </div>
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<b>Wednesday, Mar 04, 2026, Schedule: </b></div>
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* 3:00 to 3:30 PM Eastern Time (US and Canada) </div>
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☕ Nespresso & Teatime - 417 DSL Commons </div>
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<b>* 3:30 to 4:30 PM Eastern Time (US and Canada) </b></div>
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<b>🕟 Colloquium - 499 DSL Seminar Room </b></div>
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<b>Abstract: </b></div>
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Distinguishing anthropogenic warming from natural variability in observations and reducing uncertainty in global warming projections by climate models remain critical challenges for climate scientists. In our work, we present a groundbreaking principle-based
framework for adept predictions of the global mean warming and its spatial pattern in response to external energy perturbations from climate mean states without running climate models or relying on statistical trend analysis.</div>
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The principle-based framework is built on a climate feedback kernel, referred to as the "energy gain kernel" (EGK). EGK is directly derived from physical principles without additional definition. EGK captures the temperature feedback’s amplification of energy
perturbations initiated both from external forcing and internal non-temperature feedback processes. EGK allows for disentangling positive and negative aspects of temperature feedback, rectifying the common misconception in existing temperature kernels that
portray temperature feedback as predominantly negative. We extract the information of surface energy amplification by non-temperature feedback from the ratio of downward longwave energy emission from the atmosphere to solar energy absorbed by the surface in
climate mean states. The product of amplification rates by temperature and non-temperature feedbacks corresponds to the total amplification of energy perturbations at the surface caused by CO2 increasing.</div>
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When applied to the observed climate mean state of 1980-2000, our framework accurately predicts the global warming observed from 1980-2000 to 2000-2020, with a prediction of 0.403 K compared to an observed value of 0.414 K. For the first time, this study confirms
that observed global warming is driven by human-caused greenhouse gas emissions, independently of climate model simulations and statistical analyses. This study also tested the framework under two assumed CO2 scenarios: a sudden quadrupling of CO2 and a 1%
annual increase in CO2. The framework accurately reproduced the global warming projections for each of these scenarios from CMIP6 models, with smaller uncertainty in warming predictions compared to CMIP6 models. These results highlight the new framework's
reliability and broad applicability.</div>
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Additional colloquium details can be found here.</div>
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<a class="OWAAutoLink" id="OWA1c587820-0117-311d-e50a-ff651592cfa5" href="https://nam04.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.sc.fsu.edu%2Fnews-and-events%2Fcolloquium%2F1908-colloquium-with-ming-cai-2026-03-04&data=05%7C02%7Csc-seminar-announce%40lists.fsu.edu%7C5aaf7d6ff1f940b352bc08de77c51105%7Ca36450ebdb0642a78d1b026719f701e3%7C0%7C0%7C639079885423285276%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiIsIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&sdata=Y444gONTAguDOzWnTGn0aMmxT%2BXMm6rKUrQLy%2Bo%2F5zE%3D&reserved=0" originalsrc="https://www.sc.fsu.edu/news-and-events/colloquium/1908-colloquium-with-ming-cai-2026-03-04">https://www.sc.fsu.edu/news-and-events/colloquium/1908-colloquium-with-ming-cai-2026-03-04</a></div>
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Please feel free to forward/share this invitation with other groups/disciplines that might be interested in this talk/topic. All are welcome to attend. </div>
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NOTE: In-person attendance is requested in our 499 Dirac Science Library (DSL) Seminar Room. Zoom access is intended for external (non-departmental) participants only. </div>
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<b>https://fsu.zoom.us/j/94273595552 </b></div>
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Meeting # <b>942 7359 5552 </b></div>
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🎦 Colloquium recordings will be made available here, <a class="OWAAutoLink" id="OWA39a8e2ac-5250-661e-d36e-bfa578e53642" href="https://nam04.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.sc.fsu.edu%2Fcolloquium&data=05%7C02%7Csc-seminar-announce%40lists.fsu.edu%7C5aaf7d6ff1f940b352bc08de77c51105%7Ca36450ebdb0642a78d1b026719f701e3%7C0%7C0%7C639079885423306058%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiIsIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&sdata=Y9pWJAVMDbvpsnN1eIa3rwCQY7f6JD28C%2FXM1JYmsC4%3D&reserved=0" originalsrc="https://www.sc.fsu.edu/colloquium">
https://www.sc.fsu.edu/colloquium</a> </div>
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