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Dear all, </div>
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Just to clarify, the Baum lecture at 3 PM is open to all and no registration is required. </div>
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The <i>reception </i>to follow is invite-only and required RSVP (for which the deadline has passed). </div>
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I hope to see you all at the lecture!</div>
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Cheers, </div>
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Allison</div>
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<div id="divRplyFwdMsg" dir="ltr"><font face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size:11pt" color="#000000"><b>From:</b> Eoas-seminar <eoas-seminar-bounces@lists.fsu.edu> on behalf of eoas-seminar--- via Eoas-seminar <eoas-seminar@lists.fsu.edu><br>
<b>Sent:</b> Monday, November 10, 2025 9:21 AM<br>
<b>To:</b> Eoas-seminar <eoas-seminar@lists.fsu.edu>; info@coaps.fsu.edu <info@coaps.fsu.edu><br>
<b>Subject:</b> [Eoas-seminar] Friday Nov 14 3 PM: Werner A. Baum Lecture</font>
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<div><font face="Arial">Dear all, </font></div>
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<div><font face="Arial">Please join us this <b style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">Friday November 14 at 3 PM in
</b><b style=""><font color="#ff1f00">EOA 1050</font></b><b style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">
</b><font color="#000000"><span style="">for the 2025-2026 Werner A. Baum Lecture. </span></font><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">The lecture will be given by </span><a href="https://nam04.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.columbia.edu%2F~ahs129%2Fhome.html&data=05%7C02%7Ceoas-seminar%40lists.fsu.edu%7Cd2b39c7fcf344e4dfb3308de2073f71a%7Ca36450ebdb0642a78d1b026719f701e3%7C0%7C0%7C638983879582163691%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiIsIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&sdata=NhxgqP2AKK4RSv3h8XYcJNxTTdQvedxRbJYUmrZw72I%3D&reserved=0" originalsrc="https://www.columbia.edu/~ahs129/home.html" originalsrc="https://www.columbia.edu/~ahs129/home.html" originalsrc="https://www.columbia.edu/~ahs129/home.html" originalsrc="https://www.columbia.edu/~ahs129/home.html">Professor
Adam Sobel</a> <span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">from Columbia University who will speak about</span><i style="color:rgb(0,0,0)"> Tropical Cyclone Risk and the State of the Tropical Pacific</i><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">. Please see below and the attached
flyer for more information. </span></font></div>
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<div><font color="#000000" face="Arial"><span style="">We look forward to having a great turnout for what promises to be a fascinating lecture on a very timely topic. The lecture will be presented in person but a Zoom link is available for those with a medical
excuse or approved work off-campus. Please contact Allison Wing (<a href="mailto:awing@fsu.edu">awing@fsu.edu</a>) for the Zoom link. </span></font></div>
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<div><font color="#000000" face="Arial"><span style="">Prof. Sobel is available for meetings on Friday November 14; please contact Allison Wing (<a href="mailto:awing@fsu.edu">awing@fsu.edu</a>) if you would like to meet with him. </span></font></div>
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<div style="color:rgb(0,0,0)"><font face="Arial">Please feel free to forward to this announcement to other colleagues of yours who might be interested in attending the lecture.</font></div>
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<div dir="ltr"><font face="Arial"><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)"><b>Speaker: </b></span><span style="color:rgb(0,134,240)"><a href="https://nam04.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.columbia.edu%2F~ahs129%2Fhome.html&data=05%7C02%7Ceoas-seminar%40lists.fsu.edu%7Cd2b39c7fcf344e4dfb3308de2073f71a%7Ca36450ebdb0642a78d1b026719f701e3%7C0%7C0%7C638983879582189449%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiIsIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&sdata=IgNoyl5boJp0tSUiWiVOL3i96tsLpqtAuCOa057Qh4s%3D&reserved=0" originalsrc="https://www.columbia.edu/~ahs129/home.html" originalsrc="https://www.columbia.edu/~ahs129/home.html" originalsrc="https://www.columbia.edu/~ahs129/home.html" originalsrc="https://www.columbia.edu/~ahs129/home.html" style="color:rgb(0,134,240)">Professor
Adam Sobel</a></span></font></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="color:rgb(0,0,0)"><font face="Arial"><b>Date & Time: </b>Friday November 14, 3 PM</font></div>
<div dir="ltr"><font face="Arial"><b style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">Location: </b><font color="#ff1f00">EOA 1050</font></font></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="color:rgb(0,0,0)"><font face="Arial"><b>Title:</b><i> Tropical cyclone risk and the state of the tropical Pacific</i></font></div>
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<div dir="ltr" style="color:rgb(0,0,0)"><font face="Arial"><b>Abstract: </b>Tropical cyclone (TC) risk is strongly modulated by the state of the tropical Pacific climate. During El Niño events, for example, TC activity is suppressed in the North Atlantic (thus
TC risk to the U.S. is generally reduced) and enhanced in the northeast Pacific, while the opposite occurs during La Niña events. Virtually all Earth system models simulate long-term trends in sea surface temperature under greenhouse gas warming that are structurally
similar to El Niño, with greater warming in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific than in the rest of the basin. Unsurprisingly, predictions and projections of TC activity based on these models (for example, using statistical-dynamical downscaling models
which take the simulated climates from Earth system models as input) generate results that are also broadly similar to what happens in El Niño events, including suppressed Atlantic activity. Yet over the last several decades, observations have shown trends
that are more similar to La Niña, approximately opposite to what the models say should have happened. It now seems likely that this is not just a result of internal variability, but that the models are in fact wrong in their representations of the tropical
Pacific’s response to radiative forcing. How then should we generate estimates of TC activity for the present and near future? I will present results from a couple of ongoing projects in which we try to 1) understand why the models might be wrong about tropical
Pacific trends, and 2) generate “storylines” of near-term climate change, TC activity, and TC hazard and risk that are more consistent with recent history.</font></div>
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<font face="Arial">Allison Wing, Ph.D.<br>
Werner A. and Shirley B. Baum Professor<br>
Associate Professor, Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science<br>
Florida State University<br>
awing@fsu.edu</font></div>
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