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Dear all, </div>
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Please join us this <b>Friday November 14 at 3 PM in EOA 1050 </b>for the 2025-2026 Werner A. Baum Lecture. The lecture will be given by
<a data-outlook-id="005d5fe4-7dc7-4c2c-9a0c-d3b1090d2500" originalsrc="https://www.columbia.edu/~ahs129/home.html" class="OWAAutoLink" id="OWA102e3879-280d-89d0-9e1b-6b427b79a581" href="https://nam04.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.columbia.edu%2F~ahs129%2Fhome.html&data=05%7C02%7Ceoas-seminar%40lists.fsu.edu%7Ca509e07898f649d5d5e508de20644adb%7Ca36450ebdb0642a78d1b026719f701e3%7C0%7C0%7C638983812286288574%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiIsIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&sdata=kXvRZDzbGrOvsvaKBsimoM0QWq9jkw7Im6Qh3kx9zDI%3D&reserved=0" originalsrc="https://www.columbia.edu/~ahs129/home.html">
Professor Adam Sobel</a> from Columbia University who will speak about<i> Tropical Cyclone Risk and the State of the Tropical Pacific</i>. Please see below and the attached flyer for more information. </div>
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We look forward to having a great turnout for what promises to be a fascinating lecture on a very timely topic. The lecture will be presented in person but a Zoom link is available for those with a medical excuse or approved work off-campus. Please contact
Allison Wing (<a class="OWAAutoLink" id="OWAfcec0ff3-0f91-7595-9e12-99f85e54f9c5" href="mailto:awing@fsu.edu">awing@fsu.edu</a>) for the Zoom link. </div>
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Prof. Sobel is available for meetings on Friday November 14; please contact Allison Wing (<a class="OWAAutoLink" id="OWAdcc4a0b9-d9ca-6082-f323-c4f68f7289fe" href="mailto:awing@fsu.edu">awing@fsu.edu</a>) if you would like to meet with him. </div>
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Please feel free to forward to this announcement to other colleagues of yours who might be interested in attending the lecture.</div>
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<b>Speaker: </b><span style="color: rgb(0, 134, 240);"><a style="color: rgb(0, 134, 240);" data-outlook-id="005d5fe4-7dc7-4c2c-9a0c-d3b1090d2500" originalsrc="https://www.columbia.edu/~ahs129/home.html" class="OWAAutoLink" id="OWA275693dc-c2d9-05d0-9f31-3e02aadd8ebe" href="https://nam04.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.columbia.edu%2F~ahs129%2Fhome.html&data=05%7C02%7Ceoas-seminar%40lists.fsu.edu%7Ca509e07898f649d5d5e508de20644adb%7Ca36450ebdb0642a78d1b026719f701e3%7C0%7C0%7C638983812286319336%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiIsIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&sdata=WvbARQQoqYHlJIqX0MWaJRWG5rM3CxTtZBALz297%2FOk%3D&reserved=0" originalsrc="https://www.columbia.edu/~ahs129/home.html">Professor
Adam Sobel</a></span></div>
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<b>Date & Time: </b>Friday November 14, 3 PM</div>
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<b>Location: </b>EOA 1050</div>
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<b>Title:</b><i> Tropical cyclone risk and the state of the tropical Pacific</i></div>
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<b>Abstract: </b>Tropical cyclone (TC) risk is strongly modulated by the state of the tropical Pacific climate. During El Niño events, for example, TC activity is suppressed in the North Atlantic (thus TC risk to the U.S. is generally reduced) and enhanced
in the northeast Pacific, while the opposite occurs during La Niña events. Virtually all Earth system models simulate long-term trends in sea surface temperature under greenhouse gas warming that are structurally similar to El Niño, with greater warming in
the eastern and central equatorial Pacific than in the rest of the basin. Unsurprisingly, predictions and projections of TC activity based on these models (for example, using statistical-dynamical downscaling models which take the simulated climates from Earth
system models as input) generate results that are also broadly similar to what happens in El Niño events, including suppressed Atlantic activity. Yet over the last several decades, observations have shown trends that are more similar to La Niña, approximately
opposite to what the models say should have happened. It now seems likely that this is not just a result of internal variability, but that the models are in fact wrong in their representations of the tropical Pacific’s response to radiative forcing. How then
should we generate estimates of TC activity for the present and near future? I will present results from a couple of ongoing projects in which we try to 1) understand why the models might be wrong about tropical Pacific trends, and 2) generate “storylines”
of near-term climate change, TC activity, and TC hazard and risk that are more consistent with recent history.</div>
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Allison Wing, Ph.D.<br>
Werner A. and Shirley B. Baum Professor<br>
Associate Professor, Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science<br>
Florida State University<br>
<a class="OWAAutoLink" id="OWA85e4f005-7612-216e-8163-093b4ac0de1a" href="mailto:awing@fsu.edu">awing@fsu.edu</a></div>
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