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Hi everyone,</div>
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Due to the unfortunate circumstances regarding a potential reduction in the DoD budget and personnel, which are expected to take place in the coming weeks, Jonathan Christophersen's visit will need to be canceled or postponed until further notice.</div>
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Thank you for your understanding.</div>
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Best regards, </div>
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<b>Luna Hiron</b></div>
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Assistant Research Scientist</div>
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Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS)</div>
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Florida State University <span style="font-family: Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif;">
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<div id="divRplyFwdMsg" dir="ltr"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><b>From:</b> Luna Hiron <lhiron@fsu.edu><br>
<b>Sent:</b> Thursday, February 13, 2025 4:23 PM<br>
<b>To:</b> seminar@coaps.fsu.edu <seminar@coaps.fsu.edu>; eoas-seminar@lists.fsu.edu <eoas-seminar@lists.fsu.edu><br>
<b>Cc:</b> Christophersen, Jonathan CIV (USA) <jonathan.christophersen.civ@us.navy.mil><br>
<b>Subject:</b> Seminar by Jonathan Christophersen (NRL) "Oceanic Rossby Wave Predictability" Monday March 3 at 1 pm at COAPS</span>
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Hi everyone, </div>
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I am pleased to share that Dr. Jonathan Christophersen, a Meteorologist at the Naval Research Laboratory in Monterey and an FSU alumni, will be visiting FSU and giving a presentation on
<b>Monday, March 3rd, at 1:00 PM ET</b>. He will share his work on oceanic Rossby waves (more details below). The presentation will take place at COAPS, with remote access available for those unable to attend in person. A Zoom link will be shared closer to
the date. </div>
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<b>Oceanic Rossby Wave Predictability in ECMWF’s Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Reforecasts</b></div>
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In recent years, studies have put forth various theories and findings on the role of oceanic equatorial Rossby waves (OERW) in the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictability of the Indian Ocean (IO). While much of the scientific literature uses data from
in-situ, satellite, and/or reanalysis datasets, this study focuses on reforecast fields from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting’s (ECMWF) S2S dataset. Evaluation of the model’s predictive skill in representing OERWs and the associated
variations in sub-surface-to-surface interaction and air-sea coupling are discussed. This work provides a unique methodology to calculate and evaluate the predictability of OERWs from model forecast data, which, to the author’s knowledge, is the first of its
kind to do so. Our results indicate that the model forecasts OERWs with relatively high skill (anomaly correlation > 0.5 out to 40 days), indicating they are a key source of oceanic subseasonal predictability at extended lead times. Analysis of the wavenumber-frequency
spectra for the IO indicates a reduction in power throughout the model forecast time period in the oceanic equatorial Kelvin wave (OEKW) regime, indicating the potential misrepresentation of the zonal winds. This erroneous weakening of the OEKWs is attributed
to the weakening of the reflected oceanic equatorial Rossby waves (OERWs). This results in weaker transport of the associated westward advection of warm ocean heat content (OHC) anomalies via the OERWs, which has numerous implications for air-sea and sub-surface-to-surface
coupling, as will be discussed. In general, the atmospheric response to the waning westward transport of OHC anomalies in the western IO is associated with the weakening of precipitation anomalies related to the diminishing intraseasonal oscillation.</div>
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Best regards, </div>
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<b>Luna Hiron</b></div>
<div style="font-family: Calibri, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">
Assistant Research Scientist</div>
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Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS)</div>
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Florida State University <span style="font-family: Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif;">
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