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<span style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">Dear all, </span>
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<div><font color="#000000"><span style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">Please join us next </span></font><b style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">Thursday February 22</b><font color="#000000"><span style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"> for a Meteorology
seminar given by </span></font><a href="https://www.jhordannejones.com">Dr. Jhordanne Jones</a><font color="#000000"><span style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">. Dr. Jones is a NOAA Climate & Global Change Postdoctoral Fellow at Purdue University, and she will
speak about “</span></font><font color="#000000"><span style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><i>Is sub-seasonal to seasonal tropical cyclone predictability changing under global warming?” </i>(abstract below)</span></font></div>
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<div><font color="#000000"><span style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">Dr. Jones will be joining us virtually, but we will still gather together in EOA 1044. If you have a medical excuse or other approved work off-campus, please contact Allison Wing (<a href="mailto:awing@fsu.edu">awing@fsu.edu</a>)
for the Zoom link. Otherwise we look forward to seeing everyone in 1044. </span></font></div>
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<div><font color="#000000"><b>Dr. Jones is also available for individual Zoom meetings on Thursday. If you’d like to meet with her, please contact Allison Wing. </b></font></div>
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<div><b>DATE: </b>Thursday February 22</div>
<div><b>SEMINAR TIME: </b>Refreshments at 3 PM, Talk 3:15 - 4:15 PM</div>
<div><b>SEMINAR LOCATION: </b>EOA 1044 (Speaker remote)</div>
<div><b>SPEAKER: </b><a href="https://www.jhordannejones.com" style="caret-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">Dr. Jhordanne Jones</a></div>
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<b style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">TITLE:</b><font color="#000000"><span style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"> </span></font><i style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">Is sub-seasonal to seasonal tropical cyclone predictability
changing under global warming?</i>
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<b>ABSTRACT:</b> Subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) tropical cyclone prediction at lead times between 2 weeks to 2 months is essential for preventing disasters, safeguarding livelihoods, and disseminating early warnings for imminent storm activity before and during
the hurricane season. Recent projections of global tropical cyclone (TC) activity indicate a likely global increase in the frequency and variability of the most intense TCs under global warming. Concurrently, we expect changes to the Madden Julian Oscillation
(MJO), a key source of sub-seasonal predictability. Under global warming, MJO-associated precipitation and zonal wind amplitudes are projected to increase with an eastward shift of MJO-related precipitation. In this talk, I’ll use the ERA5 reanalysis data
to characterize and examine observed trends in S2S Atlantic TC predictability and their association with MJO variability. Additionally, given the current uncertainty in the warming pattern simulated by global climate models, I will discuss the implications
of the pattern effect for the MJO-Atlantic TC relationship. The key science questions I will address in my talk are:</div>
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<li><font color="#000000">How are Atlantic TC variability and MJO variability changing?</font></li><li><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">Which aspects of the changing MJO variability matter for S2S Atlantic TC </span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">predictability?</span></li><li><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">And what are the implications of the pattern effect for these observed trends?</span></li></ul>
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<div style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">We look forward to seeing you there!</div>
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<div style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">Cheers, </div>
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<div style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">Allison</div>
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Allison A. Wing, Ph.D.</div>
<div>Werner A. and Shirley B. Baum Professor<br>
Associate Professor, Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science<br>
Florida State University<br>
awing@fsu.edu</div>
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