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<p class="HTMLBody" style="line-height:115%"><b><u><span style="font-size:16.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:red">NOTE: The zoom link has been updated. Please use this link on Monday.<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p class="HTMLBody" align="center" style="text-align:center;line-height:115%"><b><u><span style="font-size:26.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Monotype Corsiva",serif">Meteorology Seminar<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p class="HTMLBody" align="center" style="text-align:center;line-height:115%"><b><span style="font-size:28.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Monotype Corsiva",serif">Thomas Gard</span></b><span style="font-size:28.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Monotype Corsiva",serif"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="HTMLBody" align="center" style="text-align:center"><span style="font-size:28.0pt;font-family:"Monotype Corsiva",serif">M.S. Meteorology Candidate<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="HTMLBody"><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="doublespacedcaps" align="left" style="text-align:left;line-height:normal">
<b><u><span style="font-size:13.0pt">Title</span></u></b><b><span style="font-size:13.0pt">:</span></b><span style="font-size:13.0pt"> Examining the utility of ProbSevere For Predicting Pulse Severe Thunderstorms<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:13.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><u><span style="font-size:13.0pt">Major Professor</span></u></b><b><span style="font-size:13.0pt">: Dr. Henry Fuelberg</span></b><b><u><span style="font-size:13.0pt;font-family:"Times",serif"><o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:13.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:black"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><u><span style="font-size:13.0pt">Date</span></u></b><b><span style="font-size:13.0pt">:</span></b><span style="font-size:13.0pt"> Monday, October 26th, 2020
<b><u>Time</u>: 9:00 AM</b></span><span style="font-size:13.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="HTMLBody"><b><span style="font-size:13.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><u><span style="font-size:13.0pt">Location</span></u></b><b><span style="font-size:13.0pt">:
</span></b><span style="font-size:13.0pt">Zoom Meeting URL: </span><span style="color:black"><a href="https://fsu.zoom.us/j/93507804077?pwd=UmVweThlUHJVQjBwaTR0ZmR2Q1g5QT09">https://fsu.zoom.us/j/93507804077?pwd=UmVweThlUHJVQjBwaTR0ZmR2Q1g5QT09</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="HTMLBody"><span style="font-size:13.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center"><b>ABSTRACT</b><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:.5in">Disorganized, weakly forced convection is a routine summertime occurrence in the Southeast United States. Pulse severe storms are single cell thunderstorms that produce severe wind and/or severe hail for a brief
period of time. These thunderstorms pose a major warm season forecasting problem, since forecasters presently do not have sufficient guidance to know which, if any, of the many single cells will become severe. The empirical Probability of Severe (ProbSevere)
model, developed by the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS), fuses real-time data to produce short-term, statistically derived probabilistic forecasts of thunderstorm intensity. Objects corresponding to storms are created from
satellite and radar data, tracked in two-minute timesteps, and trained on a composite of all modes of severe thunderstorms. ProbSevere has been found to increase forecaster confidence and forecast lead time. However, it is unclear how well ProbSevere performs
specifically for pulse severe storms. This study evaluates the ability of ProbSevere to represent and predict pulse severe storms.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:.5in">Pulse severe environments are often classified as being unstable (CAPE
<span style="font-family:Symbol">³</span> 2000 J kg<sup>-1</sup>) and weakly sheared (0-6 km AGL shear < 10 m s<sup>-1</sup>). ProbSevere objects fitting the accepted definition of a pulse severe environment were matched with severe events from
<i>Storm Data</i> to create a dataset of ProbSevere objects that corresponded to pulse severe thunderstorms. A null dataset comprised of objects that corresponded to pulse severe environments but did not match with a severe event was also created.
<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:.5in">Pulse severe objects were evaluated at two times - the time at object initialization and the time of the severe event. This way, the evolution of objects could be analyzed as would be done by a forecaster in real
time. Objects were examined in four ways – 1) their temporal evolution, 2) their spatial evolution, 3) how well the severe hail and cellular wind models perform for pulse severe objects, and 4) how well individual predictors discriminate between severe and
nonsevere objects. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:.5in">Results reveal that ProbSevere’s ability to represent pulse severe thunderstorms is limited, both temporally and spatially. There is little difference between severe hail-producing objects and severe wind-producing
objects. At object initialization, ProbSevere exhibits insignificant probabilities of severe weather. At the time of severe events, probabilities are greater but still small. No predictor, with the exception of lightning flash rate, shows a strong correlation
with the increasing probability of pulse severe events. Furthermore, no discernable difference in the distribution of probabilities as a function of predictor value is found between severe and nonsevere objects. This study demonstrates that ProbSevere’s ability
to represent pulse severe thunderstorms is limited, and that ProbSevere is not optimized to give forecasters sufficient guidance for pulse severe storm events.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Shel McGuire<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Florida State University<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Academic Program Specialist<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Department of Earth, Ocean, & Atmospheric Science<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">1011 Academic Way, 2019 EOA Building<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Tallahassee, FL 32306<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">850-644-8582<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">To make an appointment please login to my.fsu.edu and choose the Campus Connect (CC) icon<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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