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<p class="HTMLBody" align="center" style="text-align:center;line-height:115%"><b><u><span style="font-size:26.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Monotype Corsiva"">Meteorology Seminar<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p class="HTMLBody" align="center" style="text-align:center;line-height:115%"><b><span style="font-size:28.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Monotype Corsiva"">Ryan Remondelli</span></b><span style="font-size:28.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Monotype Corsiva""><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="HTMLBody" align="center" style="text-align:center"><span style="font-size:28.0pt;font-family:"Monotype Corsiva"">M.S. Meteorology Candidate<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="HTMLBody"><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="doublespacedcaps" align="left" style="text-align:left;line-height:normal">
<b><u><span style="font-size:14.0pt">Title</span></u>:</b> SIMULATION OF HISTORICAL NEW ENGLAND TROPICAL CYCLONES: PREDICTABILITY IMPLICATIONS AND THEIR METEOROLOGICAL INSIGHT<span style="font-size:14.0pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><u><span style="font-size:14.0pt">Major Professor</span></u></b><b><span style="font-size:14.0pt">: Dr. Robert Hart</span></b><b><u><span style="font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times",serif"><o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:black"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><u><span style="font-size:14.0pt">Date</span></u></b><b><span style="font-size:14.0pt">:</span></b><span style="font-size:14.0pt"> Tuesday, June 23rd, 2020
<b><u>Time</u>: 3:30 PM</b></span><span style="font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="HTMLBody"><b><o:p> </o:p></b></p>
<p class="HTMLBody"><b><u><span style="font-size:14.0pt">Location</span></u></b><b><span style="font-size:14.0pt">:
</span></b><span style="font-size:14.0pt">Zoom Meeting URL: </span><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Segoe UI",sans-serif;color:#201F1E;background:white"><a href="https://fsu.zoom.us/j/91023626819">https://fsu.zoom.us/j/91023626819</a></span><b><span style="font-size:14.0pt"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center"><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:.5in"><b>New England (NE) Tropical Cyclones (TCs) can produce significant damage, as well as provide increased forecast track and intensity complexity for forecasters. This is the result of the fact that these TCs recurve,
often undergo extratropical transition, and are also forced via midlatitude dynamics that can act as a source of simulation track, structural, and intensity uncertainty. Consequently, not only do forecasters still struggle with forecasting NE TCs in real-time,
but the region has had few such cases to quantify our ability to predict these storms in an age when they can now be explicitly resolved by Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP).
<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:.5in"><b><o:p> </o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:.5in"><b>The track predictability of historical landfalling NE TCs was explored in this study through hindcasts of all landfalling NE TCs from 1900-2011. Utilizing version 4.1.1 of the Weather Forecast and Research Model
Advanced Research WRF (WRF-ARW) with two outer fixed domains (27 km, 9km), as well as a vortex-following inner domain (3 km), 18 cases were examined beginning 7 days prior landfall. As a result of utilizing relatively coarse ERA-20C analysis as boundary and
initial conditions, WRF’s vortex removal and insertion scheme was employed to provide more plausible initial conditions for the hindcasts that can be provided by ERA-20C alone. The resulting total-track, cross-track, and along-track errors were calculated
and then compared to various recent model track forecast errors as well as the National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) official track forecast errors. The evolution of the synoptic-scale patterns leading up to the time of landfall for these 18 TCs was then investigated.
The distance of the simulated TCs to their surrounding troughs and ridges was also investigated. An objective climatology of the nearby trough, ridge, and jet axis locations was determined and analyzed.
<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:.5in"><b><o:p> </o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:.5in"><b>This analysis found that the average predictability of the historical NE TCs was low compared to a recent NHC climatology of forecast track errors. Lead times for when landfall projections occurred on long track
Main Development Region storms were between 2 and 3 days before landfall. These results argue that the predictability of NE TCs utilizing a state of the art WRF model remains limited, giving inadequate lead time for emergency managers and forecasters.<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Shel McGuire<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Florida State University<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Academic Program Specialist<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Department of Earth, Ocean, & Atmospheric Science<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">1011 Academic Way, 2019 EOA Building<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Tallahassee, FL 32306<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">850-644-8582<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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