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<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:14.0pt;color:black">Join Zoom Meeting
<a href="https://fsu.zoom.us/j/657801371">https://fsu.zoom.us/j/657801371</a><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="HTMLBody" align="center" style="text-align:center;line-height:115%"><b><u><span style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Monotype Corsiva""><o:p><span style="text-decoration:none"> </span></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p class="HTMLBody" align="center" style="text-align:center;line-height:115%"><b><u><span style="font-size:26.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Monotype Corsiva"">Meteorology Seminar<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p class="HTMLBody" align="center" style="text-align:center;line-height:115%"><b><span style="font-size:28.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Monotype Corsiva"">Robert West</span></b><span style="font-size:28.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Monotype Corsiva""><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="HTMLBody" align="center" style="text-align:center"><span style="font-size:26.0pt;font-family:"Monotype Corsiva"">PhD Meteorology Candidate<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="HTMLBody"><span style="font-size:11.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="doublespacedcaps" align="left" style="text-align:left;line-height:normal">
<b><u><span style="font-size:14.0pt">Title</span></u>:</b> <span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:Roboto;color:#333333;background:white">
An evaluation of non-Gaussian climate statistics</span><span style="font-size:14.0pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><u><span style="font-size:14.0pt">Major Professor</span></u></b><b><span style="font-size:14.0pt">: Dr. Philip Sura</span></b><b><u><span style="font-size:14.0pt;font-family:Times"><o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:black"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><u><span style="font-size:14.0pt">Date</span></u></b><b><span style="font-size:14.0pt">:</span></b><span style="font-size:14.0pt"> Thursday April 2, 2020
<b><u>Time</u>: 3:30 PM</b></span><span style="font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="HTMLBody"><b><o:p> </o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><u><span style="font-size:14.0pt">Location</span></u></b><b><span style="font-size:14.0pt">:
</span></b><span style="font-size:14.0pt">Zoom meeting ID: <span style="color:black">
<a href="https://fsu.zoom.us/j/657801371">https://fsu.zoom.us/j/657801371</a></span></span><span style="color:black"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center"><b><o:p> </o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center"><b><o:p> </o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center"><b>ABSTRACT</b><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center"><b><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b>Earth's atmosphere-ocean system is distinguished by its variability over a wide range of time scales. The non-linear interactions between these time scales are complex and are further complicated by the large number of subsystems and
modes in the atmosphere-ocean system. Here, we explore a stochastic model developed by Sardeshmukh and Sura which uses correlated additive and multiplicative (CAM) noise and relies on a state-dependent (multiplicative) noise forcing to represent the multi-scale
interactions between weather and climate.</b><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><o:p> </o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b>An important problem in climate variability is the statistical representation of extreme weather and climate events. While a description of the tails of a probability density function (pdf) is essential for modeling extreme events, an
understanding of the full pdf is required to capture the full dynamics of the atmosphere-ocean system. On daily scales, the statistics of the large-scale atmospheric circulation are non-Gaussian. A one-dimensional pdf produced by the CAM noise model, or stochastically
generated skewed (SGS) distribution, attempts to probabilistically represent the non-Gaussian statistics of atmospheric climate anomalies.<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><o:p> </o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b>This study evaluates the ability of the SGS distribution to represent the of non-Gaussian statistics of several atmospheric variables using NOAA-CIRES-DOE Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project version 2c (20CRv2c) dataset. A method of
moments SGS parameter estimation technique described Sardeshmukh et al (2015) is implemented in a Julia software package and applied to global gridded time series of reanalysis data. Goodness-of-fit tests show the SGS distribution performs well in regions
of near-zero and positive kurtosis, but produces statistically implausible with time series with negative sample kurtosis. However, the SGS distribution is found to outperform the standard normal (Gaussian) distribution at nearly all gridded locations, even
where the SGS fit is poor. The SGS distributions of two 67 year 20CRv2c periods are also compared, where few significant changes in the shape of the SGS distribution are found.<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Shel McGuire<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Florida State University<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Academic Program Specialist<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Department of Earth, Ocean, & Atmospheric Science<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">1011 Academic Way, 2019 EOA Building<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Tallahassee, FL 32306<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">850-644-8582<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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