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<p class="HTMLBody" style="line-height:115%"><b><span style="font-size:14.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif">Please note that this defense will only take place through the Zoom online platform. Please download Zoom if you wish to attend.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="HTMLBody" style="line-height:115%"><b><span style="font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;color:black">Topic: Thesis Defense</span></b><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;color:black"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;color:black">Time: Mar 23, 2020 11:00 AM Eastern Time (US and Canada)<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;color:black"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;color:black">Join Zoom Meeting<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;color:black"><a href="https://fsu.zoom.us/j/8981311891">https://fsu.zoom.us/j/8981311891</a><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;color:black">Meeting ID: 898 131 1891<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
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<p class="HTMLBody" style="line-height:115%"><b><span style="font-size:14.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="HTMLBody" align="center" style="text-align:center;line-height:115%"><b><u><span style="font-size:26.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Monotype Corsiva"">Meteorology Seminar<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p class="HTMLBody" align="center" style="text-align:center;line-height:115%"><b><span style="font-size:28.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Monotype Corsiva"">Jerry Kung</span></b><span style="font-size:28.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Monotype Corsiva""><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="HTMLBody" align="center" style="text-align:center"><span style="font-size:26.0pt;font-family:"Monotype Corsiva"">M.S. Meteorology Candidate<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="HTMLBody"><span style="font-size:11.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
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<b><u><span style="font-size:14.0pt">Title</span></u>:</b> Three modeling approaches to predicting pyrocumulus formation during prescribed burns at eglin air force base, florida<span style="font-size:14.0pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><b><u><span style="font-size:14.0pt">Major Professor</span></u></b><b><span style="font-size:14.0pt">: Dr. Jeffrey Chagnon<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><b><u><span style="font-size:14.0pt">Date</span></u></b><b><span style="font-size:14.0pt">:</span></b><span style="font-size:14.0pt"> Monday, March 23, 2020
<b><u>Time</u>: 11:00 AM</b></span><span style="font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="HTMLBody"><b><o:p> </o:p></b></p>
<p class="HTMLBody"><b><u><span style="font-size:14.0pt">Location</span></u></b><b><span style="font-size:14.0pt">:
</span></b><span style="font-size:14.0pt">On virtual platform – see above for Zoom meeting information<b><o:p></o:p></b></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center"><b><o:p> </o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center"><b>ABSTRACT</b><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center"><b><o:p> </o:p></b></p>
<p class="HTMLBody"><span style="font-size:14.0pt">Prescribed burning is a land management technique conducted at Eglin Air Force Base (AFB), Florida, by Jackson Guard. Sometimes a fire-induced cumulus cloud, called a pyrocumulus (pyroCu), forms over a surface
fire. A towering pyrocumulus can lead to downbursts that challenge Jackson Guard teams’ capacity to keep fire behavior under control. There has been scant effort devoted to forecasting pyrocumuli accurately. This thesis presents three different methods
for predicting pyrocumulus formation prior to scheduled burns at Eglin AFB: numerical modeling, statistical regression, and qualitative modeling. The numerical modeling approach entailed simulating 14 burn dates using the Weather Research and Forecasting
(WRF) model’s coupled fire-atmosphere module, WRF-Fire. A Rate-of-Spread (ROS) parameter was developed for simulating the outcomes of future burns, with the prescribed burn model matching observed pyrocumuli at a 71% success rate. The statistical regression
approach used a sample of 31 burn dates to build, train, and test a statistical model using logistic regression. The statistical model performed with 74% accuracy in hindcasting the sample size’s observed outcomes. In the third approach, a qualitative model
was built and tested on the same 31 burn dates’ thermodynamic soundings and burn parameters. The categorization algorithm was converted into a flowchart, with decision points trained to optimally predict the sample’s observed outcomes, hindcasting pyrocumulus
formation at a 74% success rate. These approaches to prediction yielded three distinct operational tools for Jackson Guard. While higher success rates were not obtained this time, a fruitful proof of concept was accomplished. Furthermore, the three methodological
frameworks can all be tailored for fixed-site prescribed burn operations outside northwestern Florida.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Shel McGuire<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Florida State University<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Academic Program Specialist<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Department of Earth, Ocean, & Atmospheric Science<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">1011 Academic Way, 2019 EOA Building<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Tallahassee, FL 32306<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">850-644-8582<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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