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Our EOAS Colloquium speaker TODAY at 3:30 in EOA 1050 will be Dr.
Allan Clarke of FSU EOAS. His title and abstract:<br>
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<p><b><br>
</b></p>
<p><b>How a new understanding of El Niño/La Nina improves
climate prediction</b></p>
<p>by <u>Allan J. Clarke </u>and Xiaolin Zhang</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">Many
theories have been advanced to explain the generation
mechanism of El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in
the equatorial Pacific. The Bjerknes mechanism relies on an
ocean-atmosphere instability involving the anomalous Pacific
equatorial zonal sea surface temperature (SST)
gradient. Others have suggested that the zonal equatorial
movement of the equatorial Pacific warm/fresh pool and
associated air-sea interaction are key to ENSO
generation. Recently El Niño flavors related to central
Pacific and eastern Pacific SST anomalies have been the
subject of much community discussion. Theories of El Niño
generation and its demise should explain why major El Niño
indices are phase-locked to the seasonal cycle, why there is
a persistence barrier to ENSO prediction, and why certain
quantities like the equatorial warm water volume can
foreshadow El Niño. </span><span style="mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">In this
seminar it will be shown using simple physical arguments
that the movement of the warm pool right at the equator is
crucial to understanding El Niño dynamics and our ability to
predict El Niño/La Niña. <br>
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