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<p class="HTMLBody" align="center" style="text-align:center;line-height:115%"><b><u><span style="font-size:26.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Monotype Corsiva"">Meteorology Seminar<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p class="HTMLBody" align="center" style="text-align:center;line-height:115%"><b><span style="font-size:28.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Monotype Corsiva"">Brian Haynes</span></b><span style="font-size:28.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Monotype Corsiva""><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="HTMLBody" align="center" style="text-align:center"><span style="font-size:28.0pt;font-family:"Monotype Corsiva"">MS Meteorology Candidate<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="HTMLBody"><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="doublespacedcaps" align="left" style="text-align:left;line-height:normal">
<b><u><span style="font-size:14.0pt">Title</span></u>:</b> <b>Climate Variability of the Arctic from an Isentropic Potential Vorticity Perspective</b><b><span style="font-size:14.0pt"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><u><span style="font-size:14.0pt">Major Professor</span></u></b><b><span style="font-size:14.0pt">: Dr. Eric Chassignet</span></b><b><u><span style="font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times",serif"><o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:black"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><u><span style="font-size:14.0pt">Date</span></u></b><b><span style="font-size:14.0pt">:</span></b><span style="font-size:14.0pt"> October 31, 2019
<b><u>Time</u>: 3:30 PM</b></span><span style="font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="HTMLBody"><b><o:p> </o:p></b></p>
<p class="HTMLBody"><b><u><span style="font-size:14.0pt">Location</span></u></b><b><span style="font-size:14.0pt">:
</span></b><span style="font-size:14.0pt">Werner A. Baum Seminar Room (353 Love Building)<b><o:p></o:p></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b>(Please join us for refreshments served outside room 353 Love @ 3:00 PM)</b><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center"><b><o:p> </o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center"><b>ABSTRACT<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center"><b><o:p> </o:p></b></p>
<p class="Body"><span style="font-size:13.0pt">The persistence of the positive phase of the Arctic Ocean Oscillation (AOO) during the last two decades is examined by invoking potential vorticity dynamics in a warming Arctic climate to describe tendencies of
atmospheric forcing at the Arctic boundary layer. Positive indices of the AOO are indicative of an anti-cyclonic wind stress being imparted at the ice-ocean surface in the Beaufort Sea, a pattern typical during Arctic winters, throughout most of a given year.
An IPV framework used to relate increasing Arctic ambient temperatures and sea ice loss with the AOO is achieved by analyzing isentropic output from a blend of the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) reanalysis
data, as well as surface heat flux output from the same dataset in order to draw conclusions about how diabatic effects may annihilate low-level potential vorticity and reinforce atmospheric stability. These analyses were sectioned into a focus of the inherent
differences between positive and negative (cyclonic-regime) phases of the AOO over the time period spanning 1979-2017, with a closer examination pertaining IPV advection and baroclinic development during differing AOO cycles in the Arctic on synoptic timescales.
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="Body"><span style="font-size:13.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="Body"><span style="font-size:13.0pt">The trends and patterns in Arctic IPV are compared with Arctic sea ice extent and linked to warming by a reduction in the meridional IPV gradient, which in turn weakens the zonal flow and allows for the meridional
advection of lower potential vorticity into the region. Baroclinic development of these disturbances vary in location and with season and can amplify ridging downstream, enhancing stationary waves. This implies not only a connection between reduced IPV and
the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), but that the weakened IPV gradient may allow for transmittance of heat and momentum to the upper levels of the atmosphere, supporting previous studies regarding the impacts that wave-mean flow interaction
has on the warming tropopause. These findings demonstrate that the ice melt season, specifically summer and autumn, has an important role in determining the AOO cycle and are supported by IPV theory.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Shel McGuire<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Florida State University<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Academic Program Specialist<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Department of Earth, Ocean, & Atmospheric Science<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">1017 Academic Way, 410 Love Building (Meteorology)<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Tallahassee, FL 32306<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">850-644-8582<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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