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<p class="HTMLBody" align="center" style="text-align:center"><b><u><span style="font-size:26.0pt;font-family:"Monotype Corsiva"">Meteorology Seminar<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p class="HTMLBody" align="center" style="text-align:center"><b><span style="font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Monotype Corsiva""><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="HTMLBody" align="center" style="text-align:center"><b><span style="font-size:28.0pt;font-family:"Monotype Corsiva"">Ruikai Yan</span></b><span style="font-size:28.0pt;font-family:"Monotype Corsiva""><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="HTMLBody" align="center" style="text-align:center"><span style="font-size:28.0pt;font-family:"Monotype Corsiva"">PhD Meteorology Candidate<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="HTMLBody"><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="doublespacedcaps" align="left" style="text-align:left;line-height:normal">
<b><u><span style="font-size:14.0pt">Title</span></u>:</b> AN ABSOLUTE ANGULAR MOMENTUM BASED ANALYTICAL MODEL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RADIAL WIND PROFILES<span style="font-size:14.0pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><u><span style="font-size:14.0pt">Major Professor</span></u></b><b><span style="font-size:14.0pt">: Dr. Ming Cai</span></b><b><u><span style="font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times",serif"><o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:black"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><u><span style="font-size:14.0pt">Date</span></u></b><b><span style="font-size:14.0pt">:</span></b><span style="font-size:14.0pt"> Wednesday, May 1st
<b><u>Time</u>: </b>10:30 AM</span><span style="font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="HTMLBody"><b><o:p> </o:p></b></p>
<p class="HTMLBody"><b><u><span style="font-size:14.0pt">Location</span></u></b><b><span style="font-size:14.0pt">:
</span></b><span style="font-size:14.0pt">Werner A. Baum Seminar Room (353 </span>
<span style="font-size:14.0pt">Love Building)<b><o:p></o:p></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b>(Please join us for refreshments served outside room 353 Love @ 10:00 AM)</b><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center"><b><o:p> </o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center"><b>ABSTRACT<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center"><b><o:p> </o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoBodyText" style="mso-margin-top-alt:3.0pt;margin-right:26.4pt;margin-bottom:0in;margin-left:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;mso-margin-top-alt:3.0pt;mso-para-margin-right:2.4gd;mso-para-margin-bottom:0in;mso-para-margin-left:0in;mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-indent:17.55pt">
<span style="font-size:11.0pt">The<span style="letter-spacing:-1.65pt"> </span>ability<span style="letter-spacing:-1.65pt">
</span>to<span style="letter-spacing:-1.65pt"> </span>construct<span style="letter-spacing:-1.65pt">
</span>radial<span style="letter-spacing:-1.65pt"> </span>wind<span style="letter-spacing:-1.65pt">
</span>profiles<span style="letter-spacing:-1.65pt"> </span>of<span style="letter-spacing:-1.65pt">
</span>tropical<span style="letter-spacing:-1.65pt"> </span>cyclones<span style="letter-spacing:-1.65pt">
</span>(TC)<span style="letter-spacing:-1.65pt"> </span>from limited<span style="letter-spacing:-1.65pt">
</span>observations<span style="letter-spacing:-1.6pt"> </span>is<span style="letter-spacing:-1.65pt">
</span>crucial<span style="letter-spacing:-1.6pt"> </span>to<span style="letter-spacing:-1.6pt">
</span>the<span style="letter-spacing:-1.65pt"> </span>initialization<span style="letter-spacing:-1.6pt">
</span>of<span style="letter-spacing:-1.6pt"> </span>TC<span style="letter-spacing:-1.65pt">
</span>simulations<span style="letter-spacing:-1.6pt"> </span>and<span style="letter-spacing:-1.65pt">
</span>predictions.<span style="letter-spacing:-1.0pt"> </span>A<span style="letter-spacing:-1.45pt">
</span>minimum<span style="letter-spacing:-1.45pt"> </span>requirement<span style="letter-spacing:-1.45pt">
</span>for<span style="letter-spacing:-1.45pt"> </span>constructing<span style="letter-spacing:-1.45pt">
</span>a<span style="letter-spacing:-1.45pt"> </span>reasonable<span style="letter-spacing:-1.45pt">
</span>radial<span style="letter-spacing:-1.45pt"> </span>wind profile<span style="letter-spacing:-.5pt">
</span>is<span style="letter-spacing:-.45pt"> </span>a<span style="letter-spacing:-.45pt">
</span>high<span style="letter-spacing:-.45pt"> </span>skill<span style="letter-spacing:-.45pt">
</span>in<span style="letter-spacing:-.45pt"> </span>estimating<span style="letter-spacing:-.45pt">
</span>one<span style="letter-spacing:-.45pt"> </span>of<span style="letter-spacing:-.45pt">
</span>the<span style="letter-spacing:-.45pt"> </span>four<span style="letter-spacing:-.45pt">
</span>TC<span style="letter-spacing:-.45pt"> </span>characteristic<span style="letter-spacing:-.45pt">
</span>parameters,<span style="letter-spacing:-1.25pt"> </span>namely<span style="letter-spacing:-1.25pt">
</span>maximum<span style="letter-spacing:-1.25pt"> </span>wind<span style="letter-spacing:-1.2pt">
</span>speed<span style="letter-spacing:-1.25pt"> </span>(<i>V<sub>max</sub></i>),<span style="letter-spacing:-1.25pt">
</span>radius<span style="letter-spacing:-1.2pt"> </span>of<span style="letter-spacing:-1.25pt">
</span>maximum<span style="letter-spacing:-1.25pt"> </span>wind<span style="letter-spacing:-1.25pt">
</span>speed (<i>r<sub>max</sub></i>), 17 <i>ms<sup>−</sup></i><sup>1</sup> wind speed (<i>V</i><sub>17</sub>), and radius of 17
<i>ms<sup>−</sup></i><sup>1</sup> wind (<i>r</i><sub>17</sub>) from the<span style="letter-spacing:-.45pt">
</span>other<span style="letter-spacing:-.45pt"> </span>three<span style="letter-spacing:.45pt">.
</span>In<span style="letter-spacing:-.45pt"> </span>this<span style="letter-spacing:-.4pt">
</span><span style="letter-spacing:-.2pt">study,</span><span style="letter-spacing:-.45pt">
</span><span style="letter-spacing:-.2pt">we</span><span style="letter-spacing:-.45pt">
</span>put<span style="letter-spacing:-.45pt"> </span>froth<span style="letter-spacing:-.45pt">
</span>an<span style="letter-spacing:-.45pt"> </span>absolute<span style="letter-spacing:-.45pt">
</span>angular<span style="letter-spacing:-.45pt"> </span>momentum (AAM)<span style="letter-spacing:-1.65pt">
</span>based<span style="letter-spacing:-1.65pt"> </span>analytical<span style="letter-spacing:-1.65pt">
</span>model<span style="letter-spacing:-1.65pt"> </span>for<span style="letter-spacing:-1.6pt">
</span>inferring<span style="letter-spacing:-1.65pt"> </span>the<span style="letter-spacing:-1.65pt">
</span>radial<span style="letter-spacing:-1.65pt"> </span>profile<span style="letter-spacing:-1.65pt">
</span>beyond<span style="letter-spacing:-1.6pt"> </span>the<span style="letter-spacing:-1.7pt">
</span><i>r<sub>max</sub></i>.<span style="letter-spacing:-1.0pt"> </span>An observed AAM loss<span style="letter-spacing:-1.7pt">
</span>function<span style="letter-spacing:-1.75pt"> </span>L is<span style="letter-spacing:-1.75pt">
</span>defined as the ratio of the observed AAM at <i>r</i><sub>17</sub> to that at
<i>r<sub>max</sub></i><span style="letter-spacing:.45pt">. We parameterize the observed AAM loss function L as a function of these four parameters and environmental factors. The combination of analytical expressions of the AAM loss L and the AAM
</span>at <i>r</i><sub>17</sub> and <i>r<sub>max</sub></i><span style="letter-spacing:.45pt">, gives us the analytical model.
</span>This observation-physics based model<span style="letter-spacing:-.9pt"> </span>
allows<span style="letter-spacing:-.85pt"> </span>us<span style="letter-spacing:-.85pt">
</span>to<span style="letter-spacing:-.85pt"> </span>construct<span style="letter-spacing:-.9pt">
</span>radial<span style="letter-spacing:-.85pt"> </span>profiles<span style="letter-spacing:-.85pt">
</span>of<span style="letter-spacing:-.85pt"> </span>TCs<span style="letter-spacing:-.9pt">
</span>under<span style="letter-spacing:-.85pt"> </span>four<span style="letter-spacing:-.85pt">
</span>different<span style="letter-spacing:-.85pt"> </span>configurations<span style="letter-spacing:-1.15pt">
</span>from<span style="letter-spacing:-1.1pt"> </span>observations<span style="letter-spacing:-1.1pt">
</span>of<span style="letter-spacing:-1.1pt"> </span>these<span style="letter-spacing:-1.1pt">
</span>four<span style="letter-spacing:-1.1pt"> </span>parameters.<span style="letter-spacing:-.2pt">
</span>Specifically,<span style="letter-spacing:-1.1pt"> </span><span style="letter-spacing:-.2pt">we</span><span style="letter-spacing:-1.1pt">
</span>can use<span style="letter-spacing:-.45pt"> </span><i>V<sub>max</sub><span style="letter-spacing:-1.4pt">
</span></i>and<span style="letter-spacing:-.4pt"> </span><i>r<sub>max</sub><span style="letter-spacing:-1.4pt">
</span></i>as<span style="letter-spacing:-.4pt"> </span>inputs<span style="letter-spacing:-.4pt">
</span>for<span style="letter-spacing:-.4pt"> </span>solving<span style="letter-spacing:-.4pt">
</span>(a)<span style="letter-spacing:-.35pt"> </span>the<span style="letter-spacing:-.4pt">
</span>tangential<span style="letter-spacing:-.4pt"> </span>velocity<span style="letter-spacing:-.4pt">
</span>profile<span style="letter-spacing:-.4pt"> </span>of a TC from <i>r<sub>max</sub>
</i>to <i>r</i><sub>17</sub> or (b) the TC’s radius for a given tangential velocity from<span style="letter-spacing:-.55pt">
</span><i>V<sub>max</sub><span style="letter-spacing:-1.55pt"> </span></i>to<span style="letter-spacing:-.55pt">
</span><i><span style="letter-spacing:.1pt">V</span></i><sub><span style="letter-spacing:.1pt">17</span></sub><span style="letter-spacing:.1pt">.</span><span style="letter-spacing:.4pt">
</span>Alternatively,<span style="letter-spacing:-.5pt"> </span><span style="letter-spacing:-.2pt">we</span><span style="letter-spacing:-.55pt">
</span>can<span style="letter-spacing:-.5pt"> </span>use<span style="letter-spacing:-.5pt">
</span><i>V</i><sub>17</sub><span style="letter-spacing:-.95pt"> </span>and<span style="letter-spacing:-.5pt">
</span><i>r</i><sub>17</sub><span style="letter-spacing:-.95pt"> </span>as<span style="letter-spacing:-.55pt">
</span>inputs<span style="letter-spacing:-.5pt"> </span>for<span style="letter-spacing:-.55pt">
</span>solving (c) the tangential velocity profile of a TC from <i>r</i><sub>17</sub> to
<i>r<sub>max</sub> </i>or (d) the TC’s radius for a given tangential velocity from
<i>V</i><sub>17</sub> to <i>V<sub>max</sub></i>. This enables us to acquire<span style="letter-spacing:-1.1pt">
</span>radial<span style="letter-spacing:-1.1pt"> </span>wind<span style="letter-spacing:-1.1pt">
</span>profiles<span style="letter-spacing:-1.1pt"> </span>when<span style="letter-spacing:-1.1pt">
</span>one<span style="letter-spacing:-1.05pt"> </span>of<span style="letter-spacing:-1.1pt">
</span>the<span style="letter-spacing:-1.1pt"> </span>four<span style="letter-spacing:-1.1pt">
</span>parameters<span style="letter-spacing:-1.1pt"> </span>is<span style="letter-spacing:-1.05pt">
</span>not<span style="letter-spacing:-1.1pt"> </span><span style="letter-spacing:-.15pt">available
</span>in observations. The degree of consistency of (a) versus (c) and (b)<span style="letter-spacing:-1.85pt">
</span>versus (c) is an indicator of the robustness of the model. <span style="letter-spacing:-.5pt">
We </span>evaluate the skill of our<span style="letter-spacing:-.85pt"> </span>model<span style="letter-spacing:-.85pt">
</span>using<span style="letter-spacing:-.8pt"> </span>4491<span style="letter-spacing:-.85pt">
</span>records<span style="letter-spacing:-.8pt"> </span>of<span style="letter-spacing:-.85pt">
</span>197<span style="letter-spacing:-.8pt"> </span>named<span style="letter-spacing:-.85pt">
</span>TCs<span style="letter-spacing:-.85pt"> </span>derived<span style="letter-spacing:-.85pt">
</span>from<span style="letter-spacing:-.8pt"> </span>the<span style="letter-spacing:-.85pt">
</span>Extended Best<span style="letter-spacing:-1.5pt"> </span><span style="letter-spacing:-.3pt">Track</span><span style="letter-spacing:-1.5pt">
</span>Dataset<span style="letter-spacing:-1.5pt"> </span>for<span style="letter-spacing:-1.55pt">
</span>the<span style="letter-spacing:-1.5pt"> </span>period<span style="letter-spacing:-1.5pt">
</span>of<span style="letter-spacing:-1.5pt"> </span>1998-2016,<span style="letter-spacing:-1.45pt">
</span>and<span style="letter-spacing:-1.5pt"> </span>find<span style="letter-spacing:-1.5pt">
</span>that<span style="letter-spacing:-1.5pt"> </span>the<span style="letter-spacing:-1.5pt">
</span>mean<span style="letter-spacing:-1.5pt"> </span>errors in<span style="letter-spacing:-.45pt">
</span>estimating<span style="letter-spacing:-.35pt"> </span><i>V<sub>max</sub></i>,<span style="letter-spacing:-.4pt">
</span><i>r<sub>max</sub></i>,<span style="letter-spacing:-.35pt"> </span><i><span style="letter-spacing:.1pt">V</span></i><sub><span style="letter-spacing:.1pt">17</span></sub><span style="letter-spacing:.1pt">,</span><span style="letter-spacing:-.4pt">
</span>and<span style="letter-spacing:-.4pt"> </span><i>r</i><sub>17</sub><span style="letter-spacing:-.85pt">
</span>are,<span style="letter-spacing:-.4pt"> </span>respectively,<span style="letter-spacing:-.35pt">
</span>5.95<span style="letter-spacing:-.4pt"> </span>m/s,<span style="letter-spacing:-.4pt">
</span>25.37<span style="letter-spacing:-.4pt"> </span>km, 3.33 m/s, and 57.67 km.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoBodyText" style="mso-margin-top-alt:.8pt;margin-right:26.3pt;margin-bottom:0in;margin-left:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;mso-margin-top-alt:.8pt;mso-para-margin-right:2.39gd;mso-para-margin-bottom:0in;mso-para-margin-left:0in;mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-indent:17.55pt">
<span style="font-size:11.0pt">The newly developed analytical model has several <span style="letter-spacing:-.15pt">
advantages </span><span style="letter-spacing:-.2pt">over </span>widely recognized<span style="letter-spacing:-1.45pt">
</span>existing TC wind profile models. Most empirical models, for example, are designed to construct radial wind profiles in only one of the four configurations.<span style="letter-spacing:.65pt">
</span>While<span style="letter-spacing:-.6pt"> </span>other<span style="letter-spacing:-.55pt">
</span>physics-based<span style="letter-spacing:-.55pt"> </span>models<span style="letter-spacing:-.55pt">
</span><span style="letter-spacing:-.2pt">have</span><span style="letter-spacing:-.55pt">
</span>mean<span style="letter-spacing:-.55pt"> </span>errors<span style="letter-spacing:-.6pt">
</span>in<span style="letter-spacing:-.55pt"> </span><i>V<sub>max</sub></i>,<span style="letter-spacing:-.45pt">
</span><i>r<sub>max</sub></i>, and<span style="letter-spacing:-.55pt"> </span><i>r</i><sub>17</sub><span style="letter-spacing:-1.0pt">
</span>that<span style="letter-spacing:-.55pt"> </span>are<span style="letter-spacing:-.55pt">
</span>larger<span style="letter-spacing:-.6pt"> </span><span style="letter-spacing:-.2pt">by</span><span style="letter-spacing:-.55pt">
</span>several<span style="letter-spacing:-.55pt"> </span>factors.<span style="letter-spacing:.25pt">
</span>Furthermore,<span style="letter-spacing:-.55pt"> </span>our<span style="letter-spacing:-.55pt">
</span>model<span style="letter-spacing:-.55pt"> </span>can<span style="letter-spacing:-.55pt">
</span>yield physically realistic radial wind profiles and solutions of TC characteristic parameters<span style="letter-spacing:-.45pt">
</span>(meaning<span style="letter-spacing:-.45pt"> </span>that<span style="letter-spacing:-.45pt">
</span>for<span style="letter-spacing:-.45pt"> </span>radial<span style="letter-spacing:-.45pt">
</span>wind<span style="letter-spacing:-.45pt"> </span>profiles,<span style="letter-spacing:-.3pt">
</span>wind<span style="letter-spacing:-.45pt"> </span>velocity<span style="letter-spacing:-.45pt">
</span>decreases monotonically from <i>r<sub>max</sub> </i>to <i><span style="letter-spacing:.1pt">r</span></i><sub><span style="letter-spacing:.1pt">17</span></sub><span style="letter-spacing:.1pt">,
</span>and for solutions, <i>V<sub>max</sub> > V</i><sub>17</sub> <i>> </i>0 and
<i>r</i><sub>17</sub><span style="letter-spacing:-1.15pt"> </span><i>><span style="letter-spacing:-2.05pt">
</span>r<sub>max</sub><span style="letter-spacing:-1.75pt"> </span>><span style="letter-spacing:-2.05pt">
</span></i>0)<span style="letter-spacing:-.4pt"> </span>for<span style="letter-spacing:-.4pt">
</span>all<span style="letter-spacing:-.35pt"> </span>4491<span style="letter-spacing:-.4pt">
</span>TC<span style="letter-spacing:-.4pt"> </span>records,<span style="letter-spacing:-.35pt">
</span>regardless<span style="letter-spacing:-.35pt"> </span>of<span style="letter-spacing:-.4pt">
</span>which<span style="letter-spacing:-.35pt"> </span>of<span style="letter-spacing:-.4pt">
</span>the<span style="letter-spacing:-.35pt"> </span>four<span style="letter-spacing:-.4pt">
</span>con- figurations<span style="letter-spacing:-.55pt"> </span>is<span style="letter-spacing:-.55pt">
</span>chosen.<span style="letter-spacing:.3pt"> </span><span style="letter-spacing:-.35pt">For</span><span style="letter-spacing:-.55pt">
</span>more<span style="letter-spacing:-.55pt"> </span>than<span style="letter-spacing:-.5pt">
</span>10%<span style="letter-spacing:-.55pt"> </span>of<span style="letter-spacing:-.55pt">
</span>the<span style="letter-spacing:-.55pt"> </span>TC<span style="letter-spacing:-.55pt">
</span>records,<span style="letter-spacing:-.55pt"> </span><span style="letter-spacing:-.15pt">however,</span><span style="letter-spacing:-.5pt">
</span>other physics-based<span style="letter-spacing:-1.5pt"> </span>models<span style="letter-spacing:-1.4pt">
</span><span style="letter-spacing:-.2pt">have</span><span style="letter-spacing:-1.45pt">
</span>radial<span style="letter-spacing:-1.45pt"> </span>wind<span style="letter-spacing:-1.5pt">
</span>profiles<span style="letter-spacing:-1.4pt"> </span>that<span style="letter-spacing:-1.45pt">
</span>are<span style="letter-spacing:-1.45pt"> </span>discrete<span style="letter-spacing:-1.5pt">
</span>or<span style="letter-spacing:-1.45pt"> </span>increases from<span style="letter-spacing:-.65pt">
</span>the<span style="letter-spacing:-.6pt"> </span>inside<span style="letter-spacing:-.65pt">
</span>to<span style="letter-spacing:-.65pt"> </span>outside,<span style="letter-spacing:-.6pt">
</span>and<span style="letter-spacing:-.6pt"> </span><span style="letter-spacing:-.2pt">have</span><span style="letter-spacing:-.6pt">
</span>solutions<span style="letter-spacing:-.65pt"> </span>that<span style="letter-spacing:-.65pt">
</span>either<span style="letter-spacing:-.6pt"> </span>do<span style="letter-spacing:-.6pt">
</span>not<span style="letter-spacing:-.65pt"> </span>exist<span style="letter-spacing:-.6pt">
</span>or<span style="letter-spacing:-.65pt"> </span>are not physical under certain<span style="letter-spacing:.05pt">
</span>configurations.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Shel McGuire<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Florida State University<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Academic Program Specialist<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Department of Earth, Ocean, & Atmospheric Science<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">1017 Academic Way, 410 Love Building (Meteorology)<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Tallahassee, FL 32306<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">850-644-8582<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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