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<p class="HTMLBody" align="center" style="text-align:center"><b><u><span style="font-size:26.0pt;font-family:"Monotype Corsiva"">Meteorology Seminar<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p class="HTMLBody" align="center" style="text-align:center"><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Monotype Corsiva""><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="HTMLBody" align="center" style="text-align:center"><b><span style="font-size:28.0pt;font-family:"Monotype Corsiva"">Jacob Carstens</span></b><span style="font-size:28.0pt;font-family:"Monotype Corsiva""><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="HTMLBody" align="center" style="text-align:center"><span style="font-size:28.0pt;font-family:"Monotype Corsiva"">M.S. Meteorology Candidate<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="HTMLBody"><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="doublespacedcaps" align="left" style="text-align:left;line-height:normal">
<b><u><span style="font-size:14.0pt">Title</span></u>:</b> Tropical cyclogenesis from self-aggregated convection in numerical simulations of rotating radiative-convective equilibrium<span style="font-size:14.0pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><u><span style="font-size:14.0pt">Major Professor</span></u></b><b><span style="font-size:14.0pt">: Dr. Allison Wing</span></b><b><u><span style="font-size:14.0pt;font-family:Times"><o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:black"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><u><span style="font-size:14.0pt">Date</span></u></b><b><span style="font-size:14.0pt">:</span></b><span style="font-size:14.0pt"> April 01, 2019
<b><u>Time</u>: 4:00-5:30 PM</b></span><span style="font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="HTMLBody"><b><o:p> </o:p></b></p>
<p class="HTMLBody"><b><u><span style="font-size:14.0pt">Location</span></u></b><b><span style="font-size:14.0pt">:
</span></b><span style="font-size:14.0pt">Werner A. Baum Seminar Room (353 Love Building)<b><o:p></o:p></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b>(Please join us for refreshments served outside room 353 Love @ 3:30 PM)</b><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center"><b><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center"><b>ABSTRACT</b><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center"><b><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:.5in">Organized convection is of critical importance in the tropical atmosphere. Recent advances in numerical modeling have revealed that moist convection can interact with its environment to transition from a quasi-random
to organized state. This phenomenon, known as convective self-aggregation, is aided by feedbacks involving clouds, water vapor, and radiation that increase the spatial variance of column-integrated frozen moist static energy. Prior studies have shown self-aggregation
to take several different forms, including that of spontaneous tropical cyclogenesis in an environment of rotating radiative-convective equilibrium (RCE). This study expands upon previous work to address the processes leading to tropical cyclogenesis in this
rotating RCE framework. More specifically, a 3-D, cloud-permitting numerical model is used to examine the self-aggregation of convection and potential cyclogenesis, and the background planetary vorticity is varied on an f-plane across simulations to represent
a range of deep tropical and near-equatorial environments. Convection is initialized randomly in an otherwise homogeneous environment, with no background wind, precursor disturbance, or other synoptic-scale forcing.<span style="font-size:12.0pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:.5in">All simulations with planetary vorticity corresponding to latitudes from 10° poleward generate intense tropical cyclones, with maximum wind speeds of 80 ms<sup>-1</sup> or above. Time to genesis and to hurricane
intensity varies widely, even within a 5-member ensemble of 20° simulations, reflecting a potential degree of stochastic variability based in part on the initial random distribution of convection. Shared across this so-called “high-f” group is the emergence
of a midlevel vortex in the days leading to genesis, which has dynamic and thermodynamic implications on its environment that facilitates the spinup of a low-level vortex. Tropical cyclogenesis is possible in this model even at very low values of Coriolis
parameter, as far equatorward as 1°. In these experiments, convection self-aggregates into a quasi-circular cluster, which then begins to rotate and gradually strengthens into a tropical storm, aided by near-surface inflow and elevated overturning radial circulations
within the aggregated cluster. Other experiments at these lower Coriolis parameters instead self-aggregate into an elongated band and fail to undergo cyclogenesis over the 100-day simulation. A large portion of this study is devoted to examining in greater
detail the dynamic and thermodynamic evolution of cyclogenesis in these experiments and comparing the physical mechanisms to current theories.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color:black"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Shel McGuire<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Florida State University<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Academic Program Specialist<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Department of Earth, Ocean, & Atmospheric Science<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">1017 Academic Way, 410 Love Building (Meteorology)<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Tallahassee, FL 32306<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">850-644-8582<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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