From eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu Thu Feb 2 16:53:31 2023 From: eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu (eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu) Date: Thu, 2 Feb 2023 16:53:31 -0500 Subject: [Eoas-seminar] COAPS Short Seminar Series - Monday Feb. 6th at 11:00AM Message-ID: These talks are usually scheduled for the first Monday of each month. The first talk normally starts at 11:00AM.? Each talk is typically 12 minutes long (similar to many professional meetings), with 8 minutes for questions. The seminar series in now in a hybrid talk format where the speakers are encouraged to in-person at COAPS, but on-line talks are acceptable. In person and on-line talks can be attended via Zoom: https://fsu.zoom.us/j/97668135992?pwd=Sy9sTFJKNUNobnJZc29nd25DVjkzZz09 Meeting ID: 976 6813 5992 Passcode: 038391 Feb. 6th Christopher Love: Inverse Barometer Effect on Tide Departure in Coastal Southeast US Description: Fort Pulaski, GA and Charleston, SC are two major shipping and economic hubs in the coastal Southeast US that have been found to be extremely sensitive to sea level height perturbations, resulting in dozens of flooding events per year. ?For both sites, within each recorded flood event, the magnitudes of the inverse barometer effect are calculated and correlated to the tidal forecast errors at corresponding time steps. Subrat Kumar Mallick: Can Air-sea bulk formulations improve the ocean circulation model? Description: Fluxes are the key driver for ocean circulation and energy distribution. The selection of advanced bulk formulation in the circulation model reflects the actual state plus a better understanding of weather and climate, as well as improved forecasts. The talk will describe progressive improvement in the ~10 km Regional Ocean Circulation model (i.e., MOM3) by switching over different bulk flux formulations. Takaya Uchida: Is there any hope in the mesoscale eddy transport tensor in parametrizing sub-grid eddy dynamics? Description: Due to computational constraints, the model resolution of global- and basin-scale ocean simulations are often restricted to 1-1/10 degrees in latitude and longitude (equivalent to 100-10 km resolution). This resolution is barely sufficient to resolve the storm system of the ocean on the scale of tens of kilometers, coined as mesoscale eddies. Nonetheless, it is now accepted in the field of ocean modeling that resolving these eddies leads to a more realistic representation of the ocean circulation and oceanic heat transport. There has, therefore, been an active effort to design sub-grid parametrizations to mimic the dynamical effect of eddies otherwise resolved under sufficient model resolution. In the literature of eddy parametrization, it is common to relate the (sub-grid) eddy fluxes to the gradients of the resolved field via a scalar parameter, often referred to as eddy diffusivity and/or transport coefficient. This stems from the works by Redi (1982) and Gent and McWilliams (1990) known as the Redi isopycnal tracer transport coefficient and GM skew transport coefficient. A natural extension to this has been to replace the scalar coefficients with a tensor form, which allows us to incorporate the information of anisotropy in the flow. Here, I will provide an overview on eddy parametrizations in an oceanic context, present the tensor within the thickness-weighted averaged framework, a framework apt for the vertically stratified nature of the ocean, diagnosed from an eddying (1/12 degree) ensemble of the North Atlantic and idealized eddy-resolving double-gyre ensemble, and its utility in reconstructing the eddy flux of passive and active tracers such as potential vorticity. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu Thu Feb 2 19:06:29 2023 From: eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu (eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu) Date: Fri, 3 Feb 2023 00:06:29 +0000 Subject: [Eoas-seminar] Reminder: EOAS Colloquium today at 3pm: online Message-ID: This week's EOAS Colloquium will be held online today at 3pm. We will NOT use Room 1050 to avoid any potential technical problems, especially during the Q/A period. Title: Machine Learning In Earth System Modeling Speaker: Dr. Dan Lu, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN Abstract: Predictions of the Earth system have significant societal impacts, and they are one of the main goals of understanding the Earth system across scales. However, Earth system prediction is challenging. The observing system sees only part of the Earth, so the Earth system model is required to fill out the space, time, and spectral regions not covered by observations. Earth system models have substantially changed over time, from empirical model, to theoretical model, to computational model, and now are moving to data-driven machine learning (ML) model. This talk presents four ML methods to advance the Earth system modeling. Specifically, we developed a surrogate modeling technique and an inversion-free prediction framework to reduce computational costs in the physics-based Earth system model prediction, and developed an interpretable ML model with uncertainty quantification for trustworthy data-driven Earth system model prediction. The applications of these methods cover terrestrial ecosystem model, hydrological model, and geological carbon storage. Bio: Dan Lu is a staff scientist at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). She earned her Ph.D. in Computational Hydrology at Florida State University in 2012. Dan has broad research interests including: Machine Learning (ML), Uncertainty Quantification (UQ), and Numerical Simulations in Earth, Climate and Environment Sciences. Dan is co-leading the Artificial Intelligence (AI) Initiative, which is a $25 million project for 5 years, and is in the leadership team of Climate Change Science Institute at ORNL. She is the PI of a UQ for ML project, the PI of a Hydropower project, and the PI of a Geological Carbon Storage project. Dan authored about 60 publications and co-developed two software. She has been actively involved in AGU Groundwater Technical Committee, NeurIPS Climate Change AI Program Committee and organized several workshops on AI for Robust Engineering and Science. Dan is currently serving as an Associate Editor of the journal Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems, an Associate Editor of the journal Frontiers in Water, and a Topic Editor of the journal Geoscientific Model Development. Her work has been recognized by several ORNL News and she obtained the Distinguished Scientific Achievement Award in ORNL last year. -- Ming Ye, Ph.D. Professor in Hydrogeology Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science Department of Scientific Computing Florida State University Tallahassee, FL 32306-4520 Office: 3015 EOAS Building (1011 Academic Way) Phone: 850-645-4987 Cell: 850-567-4488 Email: mye at fsu.edu http://earth.eoas.fsu.edu/~mye/ -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- _______________________________________________ Eoas-seminar mailing list Eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu https://lists.fsu.edu/mailman/listinfo/eoas-seminar From eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu Fri Feb 3 14:50:30 2023 From: eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu (eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu) Date: Fri, 3 Feb 2023 19:50:30 +0000 Subject: [Eoas-seminar] FW: seminar title and abstract In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: Below is the zoom link of today's seminar. -Ming Ming Ye is inviting you to a scheduled Zoom meeting. Topic: Colloquium seminar by Dan Lu at Oak Ridge National Laboratory Time: Feb 3, 2023 02:30 PM Eastern Time (US and Canada) Join Zoom Meeting https://fsu.zoom.us/j/99964904359 Meeting ID: 999 6490 4359 One tap mobile +13052241968,,99964904359# US +13092053325,,99964904359# US Dial by your location +1 305 224 1968 US +1 309 205 3325 US +1 312 626 6799 US (Chicago) +1 646 558 8656 US (New York) +1 646 931 3860 US +1 301 715 8592 US (Washington DC) +1 719 359 4580 US +1 253 205 0468 US +1 253 215 8782 US (Tacoma) +1 346 248 7799 US (Houston) +1 360 209 5623 US +1 386 347 5053 US +1 507 473 4847 US +1 564 217 2000 US +1 669 444 9171 US +1 669 900 9128 US (San Jose) +1 689 278 1000 US Meeting ID: 999 6490 4359 Find your local number: https://fsu.zoom.us/u/aehnq1D4Uh Join by SIP 99964904359 at zoomcrc.com Join by H.323 162.255.37.11 (US West) 162.255.36.11 (US East) 115.114.131.7 (India Mumbai) 115.114.115.7 (India Hyderabad) 213.19.144.110 (Amsterdam Netherlands) 213.244.140.110 (Germany) 103.122.166.55 (Australia Sydney) 103.122.167.55 (Australia Melbourne) 149.137.40.110 (Singapore) 64.211.144.160 (Brazil) 149.137.68.253 (Mexico) 69.174.57.160 (Canada Toronto) 65.39.152.160 (Canada Vancouver) 207.226.132.110 (Japan Tokyo) 149.137.24.110 (Japan Osaka) Meeting ID: 999 6490 4359 -------------- Ming Ye, Ph.D. Professor in Hydrogeology Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science Department of Scientific Computing -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu Mon Feb 6 08:35:29 2023 From: eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu (eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu) Date: Mon, 6 Feb 2023 13:35:29 +0000 Subject: [Eoas-seminar] MET Seminar - Thursday February 9 - Dr. Zachary Labe (NOAA GFDL/Princeton University) Message-ID: Dear all, Please join us this Thursday February 9 for a Meteorology seminar, given by Dr. Zachary Labe of NOAA GFDL/Princeton University. Dr. Labe will speak about "Exploring explainable machine learning for detecting changes in climate? (abstract below). Dr. Labe will be joining us virtually but we will gather in EOA 1044 to participate in the seminar. If you cannot attend in person due to a medical reason or approved work out of town, please contact Allison Wing (awing at fsu.edu) for remote access. Otherwise, we look forward to seeing everyone in 1044! Please join us for refreshments prior to the beginning of the talk at 3:15 PM. If you are interested in meeting with the speaker, please contact Allison Wing. DATE: Thursday February 9 SEMINAR TIME: Refreshments at 3 PM, Talk 3:15 PM - 4:15 PM. SEMINAR LOCATION: EOA 1044 (speaker remote) SPEAKER: Dr. Zachary Labe TITLE: Exploring explainable machine learning for detecting changes in climate ABSTRACT: The popularity of deep learning methods, such as neural networks, continues to rapidly grow. The interest in these tools also coincides with a growing influx of big data, high performance computing capabilities, and the need for greater efficiency in solving a range of tasks. Specifically, in climate science, we often consider detection and attribution problems to help disentangle external climate forcing from internal variability. In this seminar, I will show examples of how relatively simple classification problems can be combined with explainable artificial intelligence methods to improve our understanding of historical and future climate projections. To make their predictions, we find that the neural networks are often leveraging regional patterns of forced signals within climate model large ensembles and observations. These same explainability frameworks can be easily adapted for a wide variety of applications in the Earth sciences. However, there is also some hesitancy for considering the use of neural networks due to concerns about their reliability, reproducibility, and interpretability. We look forward to seeing you there! Cheers, Allison ?????????????????? Allison Wing, Ph.D. Associate Professor Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science Florida State University awing at fsu.edu -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu Mon Feb 6 09:55:49 2023 From: eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu (eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu) Date: Mon, 6 Feb 2023 09:55:49 -0500 Subject: [Eoas-seminar] COAPS Short Seminar Series - Monday Feb. 6th at 11:00AM (update) Message-ID: These talks are usually scheduled for the first Monday of each month. The first talk normally starts at 11:00AM.? Each talk is typically 12 minutes long (similar to many professional meetings), with 8 minutes for questions. The seminar series in now in a hybrid talk format where the speakers are encouraged to in-person at COAPS, but on-line talks are acceptable. In person and on-line talks can be attended via Zoom: https://fsu.zoom.us/j/97668135992?pwd=Sy9sTFJKNUNobnJZc29nd25DVjkzZz09 Meeting ID: 976 6813 5992 Passcode: 038391 Feb. 6th Subrat Kumar Mallick: Can Air-sea bulk formulations improve the ocean circulation model? Description: Fluxes are the key driver for ocean circulation and energy distribution. The selection of advanced bulk formulation in the circulation model reflects the actual state plus a better understanding of weather and climate, as well as improved forecasts. The talk will describe progressive improvement in the ~10 km Regional Ocean Circulation model (i.e., MOM3) by switching over different bulk flux formulations. Takaya Uchida: Is there any hope in the mesoscale eddy transport tensor in parametrizing sub-grid eddy dynamics? (40 minutes) Description: Due to computational constraints, the model resolution of global- and basin-scale ocean simulations are often restricted to 1-1/10 degrees in latitude and longitude (equivalent to 100-10 km resolution). This resolution is barely sufficient to resolve the storm system of the ocean on the scale of tens of kilometers, coined as mesoscale eddies. Nonetheless, it is now accepted in the field of ocean modeling that resolving these eddies leads to a more realistic representation of the ocean circulation and oceanic heat transport. There has, therefore, been an active effort to design sub-grid parametrizations to mimic the dynamical effect of eddies otherwise resolved under sufficient model resolution. In the literature of eddy parametrization, it is common to relate the (sub-grid) eddy fluxes to the gradients of the resolved field via a scalar parameter, often referred to as eddy diffusivity and/or transport coefficient. This stems from the works by Redi (1982) and Gent and McWilliams (1990) known as the Redi isopycnal tracer transport coefficient and GM skew transport coefficient. A natural extension to this has been to replace the scalar coefficients with a tensor form, which allows us to incorporate the information of anisotropy in the flow. Here, I will provide an overview on eddy parametrizations in an oceanic context, present the tensor within the thickness-weighted averaged framework, a framework apt for the vertically stratified nature of the ocean, diagnosed from an eddying (1/12 degree) ensemble of the North Atlantic and idealized eddy-resolving double-gyre ensemble, and its utility in reconstructing the eddy flux of passive and active tracers such as potential vorticity. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- _______________________________________________ Eoas-seminar mailing list Eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu https://lists.fsu.edu/mailman/listinfo/eoas-seminar From eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu Thu Feb 9 08:57:46 2023 From: eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu (eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu) Date: Thu, 9 Feb 2023 13:57:46 +0000 Subject: [Eoas-seminar] MET Seminar - Thursday February 9 - Dr. Zachary Labe (NOAA GFDL/Princeton University) In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: Dear all, This is a reminder of today?s MET seminar, given by Dr. Zachary Labe (NOAA GFDL/Princeton University) about ?Exploring explainable machine learning for detecting changes in climate?. Refreshments at 3, talk at 3:15. See you in 1044! Cheers, Allison ?????????????????? Allison Wing, Ph.D. Associate Professor Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science Florida State University awing at fsu.edu On Feb 6, 2023, at 8:35 AM, eoas-seminar--- via Eoas-seminar > wrote: Dear all, Please join us this Thursday February 9 for a Meteorology seminar, given by Dr. Zachary Labe of NOAA GFDL/Princeton University. Dr. Labe will speak about "Exploring explainable machine learning for detecting changes in climate? (abstract below). Dr. Labe will be joining us virtually but we will gather in EOA 1044 to participate in the seminar. If you cannot attend in person due to a medical reason or approved work out of town, please contact Allison Wing (awing at fsu.edu) for remote access. Otherwise, we look forward to seeing everyone in 1044! Please join us for refreshments prior to the beginning of the talk at 3:15 PM. If you are interested in meeting with the speaker, please contact Allison Wing. DATE: Thursday February 9 SEMINAR TIME: Refreshments at 3 PM, Talk 3:15 PM - 4:15 PM. SEMINAR LOCATION: EOA 1044 (speaker remote) SPEAKER: Dr. Zachary Labe TITLE: Exploring explainable machine learning for detecting changes in climate ABSTRACT: The popularity of deep learning methods, such as neural networks, continues to rapidly grow. The interest in these tools also coincides with a growing influx of big data, high performance computing capabilities, and the need for greater efficiency in solving a range of tasks. Specifically, in climate science, we often consider detection and attribution problems to help disentangle external climate forcing from internal variability. In this seminar, I will show examples of how relatively simple classification problems can be combined with explainable artificial intelligence methods to improve our understanding of historical and future climate projections. To make their predictions, we find that the neural networks are often leveraging regional patterns of forced signals within climate model large ensembles and observations. These same explainability frameworks can be easily adapted for a wide variety of applications in the Earth sciences. However, there is also some hesitancy for considering the use of neural networks due to concerns about their reliability, reproducibility, and interpretability. We look forward to seeing you there! Cheers, Allison ?????????????????? Allison Wing, Ph.D. Associate Professor Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science Florida State University awing at fsu.edu _______________________________________________ Eoas-seminar mailing list Eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu https://lists.fsu.edu/mailman/listinfo/eoas-seminar -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu Tue Feb 14 13:47:07 2023 From: eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu (eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu) Date: Tue, 14 Feb 2023 13:47:07 -0500 Subject: [Eoas-seminar] Seminar on Friday Feb. 17 at 3:00 Message-ID: Title: Multi-scale Interactions Leading to Tropical Cyclogenesis?in Sheared Environments Time and Location: Friday Feb. 17 at 3:00 in EOAS 1050. Speaker: Chelsea Nam? (Colorado State University) Abstract: To be or not to be, is the question of tropical cyclogenesis. Only a small fraction of tropical disturbances eventually develop into tropical cyclones (TCs). Accurate forecasts of tropical cyclogenesis are difficult because TC development involves a wide range of scales, from the stochastic convective scale to a quasi-balanced large-scale flow. The presented research examines the factors that increase uncertainty around the multi-scale tropical cyclogenesis problem: vertical wind shear (VWS), environmental humidity, and convective organization. These factors were explored using multiple data sources, including observations such as dual-Doppler radar, dropsonde soundings, satellite data for mesoscale case studies, reanalyses data for synoptic and climatological analysis, and extensive ensemble mesoscale modeling for controlled experiments. The findings herein improve our process-based understanding of why moderate VWS, especially in combination with environmental dry air, produces unstable and uncertain conditions for TC genesis. Regards, Mark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu Fri Feb 17 11:56:27 2023 From: eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu (eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu) Date: Fri, 17 Feb 2023 16:56:27 +0000 Subject: [Eoas-seminar] [Seminar-announce] Scientific Computing Colloquium with Takaya Uchida Message-ID: "Is there any hope in the mesoscale eddy transport tensor in parametrizing sub-grid eddy dynamics?" Takaya Uchida Assistant Research Scientist, Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS), Florida State University NOTE: Please feel free to forward/share this invitation with other groups/disciplines that might be interested in this talk/topic. All are welcome to attend. https://fsu.zoom.us/j/94273595552 Meeting # 942 7359 5552 Wednesday, Feb 22, 2023, Schedule: * 3:00 to 3:30 PM Eastern Time (US and Canada) Nespresso & Teatime (in 417 DSL Commons) Come see our newly renovated kitchen/breakroom (418 DSL)! * 3:30 to 4:30 PM Eastern Time (US and Canada) Colloquium - Attend F2F (in 499 DSL) or Virtually (via Zoom) Abstract: Due to computational constraints, the model resolution of global- and basin-scale ocean simulations are often restricted to 1-1/10 degrees in latitude and longitude (equivalent to 100-10 km resolution). This resolution is barely sufficient to resolve the storm system of the ocean on the scale of tens of kilometers, coined as mesoscale eddies. Nonetheless, it is now accepted in the field of ocean modeling that resolving these eddies leads to a more realistic representation of the ocean circulation and oceanic heat transport. There has, therefore, been an active effort to design sub-grid parametrizations to mimic the dynamical effect of eddies otherwise resolved under sufficient model resolution. In the literature of eddy parametrization, it is common to relate the (sub-grid) eddy fluxes to the gradients of the resolved field via a scalar parameter, often referred to as eddy diffusivity and/or transport coefficient. This stems from the works by Redi (1982) and Gent and McWilliams (1990) known as the Redi isopycnal tracer transport coefficient and GM skew transport coefficient. A natural extension to this has been to replace the scalar coefficients with a tensor form, which allows us to incorporate the information of anisotropy in the flow. Here, I will provide an overview on eddy parametrizations in an oceanic context, present the tensor within the thickness-weighted averaged framework, a framework apt for the vertically stratified nature of the ocean, diagnosed from an eddying (1/12 degree) ensemble of the North Atlantic and idealized eddy-resolving double-gyre ensemble, and its utility in reconstructing the eddy flux of passive and active tracers such as potential vorticity. https://www.sc.fsu.edu/news-and-events/seminars/1708-colloquium-with-takaya-uchida-2023 -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: not available Type: text/calendar Size: 4490 bytes Desc: not available URL: -------------- next part -------------- _______________________________________________ SC-Seminar-announce mailing list SC-Seminar-announce at lists.fsu.edu https://lists.fsu.edu/mailman/listinfo/sc-seminar-announce From eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu Mon Feb 20 08:28:25 2023 From: eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu (eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu) Date: Mon, 20 Feb 2023 13:28:25 +0000 Subject: [Eoas-seminar] MET Seminar - Thursday Feb 23 - Dr. Rosimar Rios-Berrios (NCAR) Message-ID: Dear all, Please join us this Thursday February 23 for a Meteorology seminar, given by Dr. Rosimar Rios-Berrios of NCAR. Dr. Rios-Berrios will speak about ?Tropical Weather Systems in a Hierarchy of MPAS-A Aquaplanet Simulations? (abstract below). Dr. Rios-Berrios will be joining us IN PERSON. Please join us in EOA 1044 at 3 PM for refreshments prior to to the beginning of the talk at 3:15 PM. Graduate students are invited to join a student-only lunch with the speaker at 12:30 PM. This is a great opportunity to meet the speaker in a casual setting - and have some free food :-) Please RSVP to Allison Wing (awing at fsu.edu) by the end of the day Wednesday. Dr. Rios-Berriosl is also available for individual meetings on Thursday. If you?d like to meet with her, please contact Allison Wing (awing at fsu.edu). We look forward to seeing you all on Thursday! DATE: Thursday February 23 SEMINAR TIME: Refreshments at 3 PM, Talk 3:15 PM - 4:15 PM. SEMINAR LOCATION: EOA 1044 SPEAKER: Dr. Rosimar Rios-Berrios TITLE: Tropical Weather Systems in a Hierarchy of MPAS-A Aquaplanet Simulations ABSTRACT: Tropical weather systems are important components of Earth?s climate system?from being key players in redistributing heat and moisture from the tropics to the high latitudes to manifesting into powerful high-impact phenomena (e.g., hurricanes). Despite being so important, the representation of tropical weather systems and their variability is deficient in most climate and weather prediction models. This study tackles this issue by examining the multi-scale variability of tropical weather systems in a hierarchy of idealized model experiments with varying horizontal cell spacing?from 120 km to 3 km. All experiments were produced with the Model for Prediction Across Scales-Atmosphere (MPAS-A). In the first part of this talk, I will introduce a set of MPAS-A aquaplanet experiments and will demonstrate that all experiments capture tropical rainfall variability driven by equatorial waves. In the second part, I will present a novel analysis of the structure of convectively coupled equatorial waves as represented in both aquaplanet and real-data experiments. This analysis shows that convection-permitting resolution captures a more accurate vertical structure due to a better representation of diabatic heating within the equatorial waves. This, in turn, affects the rainfall intensity and evolution of the simulated waves. I will conclude with a discussion of the implications of these results, along with examples of other science topics that could be explored with the MPAS-A aquaplanet experiments. We look forward to seeing you there! Cheers, Allison -------------------------------------------- Allison A. Wing, Ph.D. Werner A. and Shirley B. Baum Professor Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science Florida State University awing at fsu.edu -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu Tue Feb 21 23:23:58 2023 From: eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu (eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu) Date: Tue, 21 Feb 2023 23:23:58 -0500 Subject: [Eoas-seminar] MET Seminar by Fiaz Ahmed Message-ID: MET faculty candidate seminar on Tuesday February 28th at 3:15 PM Title:**Tropical precipitation and its environmental controls: reverse-engineering the physics from statistics Speaker: Dr. Fiaz Ahmed (UCLA) Abstract: Tropical rain affects us all. The local effects of tropical rain include floods and droughts that disrupt large agrarian societies. The remote effects modify weather patterns even in the midlatitudes. To understand how tropical precipitation arises, one must study atmospheric convection?which ultimately generates rain?and its immediate environment. However, the convection-environment problem is confounded by fast timescales (a few hours), small spatial scales (a few km), and tight coupling between clouds and dynamics. Consequently, our climate model projections of future precipitation remain uncertain. In this talk, I present an approach in which space-borne precipitation data are used to build a simple physical model of tropical convection. This approach identifies (and helps construct) a cloud buoyancy measure from environmental thermodynamic variables. This buoyancy measure is the key to convection-environment relations; it explains land-ocean differences in precipitation statistics, improves theoretical understanding of tropical waves and helps diagnose process-level errors in climate models. However, the buoyancy measure falls short when predicting the magnitude of precipitation extremes. This deficiency is addressed using a Bayesian machine learning tool that helps fully describe the precipitation distribution. This talk will conclude with a forward-looking discussion about a data-driven, stochastic parameterization scheme to simulate rainfall variability in intermediate-complexity models. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu Tue Feb 21 23:24:05 2023 From: eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu (eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu) Date: Tue, 21 Feb 2023 23:24:05 -0500 Subject: [Eoas-seminar] MET Seminar by Aaron Hill Message-ID: MET faculty candidate seminar on Thursday March 2nd at 3:15 PM Title: Advancing High-Impact Weather Hazard Forecasting with Machine Learning Speaker: Dr. Aaron Hill (Colorado State University) Abstract: Weather hazards associated with deep convection (e.g., excessive rainfall, tornadoes, large hail, and severe wind) are often the most costly natural disasters annually. Prediction of these hazards is hindered by their localized nature and the inability of sophisticated numerical weather prediction (NWP) models to explicitly represent processes that result in hazardous weather. Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) techniques have emerged recently as alternative methods to forecast high-impact weather hazards, and they have proven particularly skillful and valuable in their ability to explicitly forecast hazard occurrence and location (e.g., 40% chance of hail within 40 km of a point). One specific area that AI and ML have been used in the meteorology domain is postprocessing of NWP model output, taking advantage of the mathematical and statistical properties of the ML methods and their ability to process large and complex datasets, to create prediction systems capable of generating real-time forecasts of weather hazards. One example is the Colorado State University Machine Learning Probabilities (CSU-MLP) prediction system which is trained to relate historical records of high-impact weather with simulated environments from an NWP model. The ML system identifies the well-studied synoptic patterns that support high-impact weather and can be examined to better understand the ingredients for these events. The CSU-MLP has undergone significant development over recent years and is now being routinely used in operational forecasting environments, including the Weather Prediction Center, Storm Prediction Center, and local National Weather Service offices. Underlying the development of the CSU-MLP, and ML prediction systems more generally, is a decision about how to define weather events. Whereas tornadoes, severe hail, and severe wind have clear definitions (e.g., severe hail is >1? in diameter) and historical records reflect these definitions, excessive rainfall and flash flooding are ill defined. Does 2 inches of rain in 3 hours produce the same impacts in Idaho as it does in Florida? Reports of flash flooding are also inconsistently reported across the country due to varying definitions of events. As a result, development of the CSU-MLP forecast system has considered a number of definitions of excessive rainfall, including radar-derived average recurrence intervals (ARIs) and local storm reports, to produce a skillful forecast system. This talk will focus on these developments and provide a brief overview of the CSU-MLP system and forecast skill derived from high-resolution NWP model output as well as a coarser global model (i.e., the Global Ensemble Forecast System). Interpretability and explainability methods will be introduced to demonstrate what can be learned about the forecast problem, including how the ML models are learning relevant synoptic and mesoscale dynamics that we know exist, which is vital to building trustworthy products. Finally, the highlights/challenges of transitioning AI research to operational forecast centers will be discussed. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu Tue Feb 21 23:38:07 2023 From: eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu (eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu) Date: Tue, 21 Feb 2023 23:38:07 -0500 Subject: [Eoas-seminar] The location of both seminars is EOAS 1044 Message-ID: The location of the faculty candidate seminars on Feb. 28 and March 2 is EOAS 1044. From eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu Thu Feb 23 08:29:10 2023 From: eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu (eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu) Date: Thu, 23 Feb 2023 13:29:10 +0000 Subject: [Eoas-seminar] MET Seminar - TODAY - Dr. Rosimar Rios-Berrios (NCAR) In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: Dear all, This is a reminder to please join us for today?s MET seminar in 1044 given by Dr. Rosimar Rios-Berrios. Snacks at 3, talk at 3:15. Grad student lunch with the speaker is at 12:30 in 6067. See you there! Cheers, Allison Sent from my iPad On Feb 20, 2023, at 8:28 AM, eoas-seminar--- via Eoas-seminar wrote: ? Dear all, Please join us this Thursday February 23 for a Meteorology seminar, given by Dr. Rosimar Rios-Berrios of NCAR. Dr. Rios-Berrios will speak about ?Tropical Weather Systems in a Hierarchy of MPAS-A Aquaplanet Simulations? (abstract below). Dr. Rios-Berrios will be joining us IN PERSON. Please join us in EOA 1044 at 3 PM for refreshments prior to to the beginning of the talk at 3:15 PM. Graduate students are invited to join a student-only lunch with the speaker at 12:30 PM. This is a great opportunity to meet the speaker in a casual setting - and have some free food :-) Please RSVP to Allison Wing (awing at fsu.edu) by the end of the day Wednesday. Dr. Rios-Berriosl is also available for individual meetings on Thursday. If you?d like to meet with her, please contact Allison Wing (awing at fsu.edu). We look forward to seeing you all on Thursday! DATE: Thursday February 23 SEMINAR TIME: Refreshments at 3 PM, Talk 3:15 PM - 4:15 PM. SEMINAR LOCATION: EOA 1044 SPEAKER: Dr. Rosimar Rios-Berrios TITLE: Tropical Weather Systems in a Hierarchy of MPAS-A Aquaplanet Simulations ABSTRACT: Tropical weather systems are important components of Earth?s climate system?from being key players in redistributing heat and moisture from the tropics to the high latitudes to manifesting into powerful high-impact phenomena (e.g., hurricanes). Despite being so important, the representation of tropical weather systems and their variability is deficient in most climate and weather prediction models. This study tackles this issue by examining the multi-scale variability of tropical weather systems in a hierarchy of idealized model experiments with varying horizontal cell spacing?from 120 km to 3 km. All experiments were produced with the Model for Prediction Across Scales-Atmosphere (MPAS-A). In the first part of this talk, I will introduce a set of MPAS-A aquaplanet experiments and will demonstrate that all experiments capture tropical rainfall variability driven by equatorial waves. In the second part, I will present a novel analysis of the structure of convectively coupled equatorial waves as represented in both aquaplanet and real-data experiments. This analysis shows that convection-permitting resolution captures a more accurate vertical structure due to a better representation of diabatic heating within the equatorial waves. This, in turn, affects the rainfall intensity and evolution of the simulated waves. I will conclude with a discussion of the implications of these results, along with examples of other science topics that could be explored with the MPAS-A aquaplanet experiments. We look forward to seeing you there! Cheers, Allison -------------------------------------------- Allison A. Wing, Ph.D. Werner A. and Shirley B. Baum Professor Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science Florida State University awing at fsu.edu _______________________________________________ Eoas-seminar mailing list Eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu https://lists.fsu.edu/mailman/listinfo/eoas-seminar -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu Thu Feb 23 13:55:34 2023 From: eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu (eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu) Date: Thu, 23 Feb 2023 18:55:34 +0000 Subject: [Eoas-seminar] [Seminar-announce] Scientific Computing Colloquium with Eviatar Bach Message-ID: "Towards the combination of physical and data-driven forecasts for Earth system prediction" Eviatar Bach Stanback Postdoctoral Fellow at the Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences, California Institute of Technology (Caltech) NOTE: Please feel free to forward/share this invitation with other groups/disciplines that might be interested in this talk/topic. All are welcome to attend. https://fsu.zoom.us/j/94273595552 Meeting # 942 7359 5552 Wednesday, Mar 1, 2023, Schedule: * 3:00 to 3:30 PM Eastern Time (US and Canada) Nespresso & Teatime (in 417 DSL Commons) * 3:30 to 4:30 PM Eastern Time (US and Canada) Colloquium - Attend F2F (in 499 DSL) or Virtually (via Zoom) Abstract: Due to the recent success of machine learning (ML) in many prediction problems, there is a high degree of interest in applying ML to Earth system prediction. However, because of the high dimensionality of the system, it is critical to use hybrid methods which combine data-driven models, physical models, and observations. I will present two such hybrid methods: Ensemble Oscillation Correction (EnOC) and the multi-model ensemble Kalman filter (MM-EnKF). Oscillatory modes of the climate system are one of its most predictable features, especially at intraseasonal timescales. It has previously been shown that these oscillations can be predicted well with statistical methods, often with better skill than dynamical models. However, they only represent a portion of the signal, and a method for beneficially combining them with dynamical forecasts of the full system has not previously been developed. Ensemble Oscillation Correction (EnOC) is a method which corrects oscillatory modes in ensemble forecasts from dynamical models. I will show results of EnOC applied to forecasts of South Asian monsoon rainfall, outperforming the state-of-the-art forecasts on subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales. A more general method for combining multiple models and observations is multi-model data assimilation (MM-DA). MM-DA generalizes the variational, Bayesian, and minimum variance formulation of the Kalman filter. Here, I will show how multiple model ensembles can be combined for both DA and forecasting in a flow-dependent manner using a multi-model ensemble Kalman filter (MM-EnKF). This methodology is applied to multiscale chaotic models and results in significant error reductions compared to the best model and to an unweighted multi-model ensemble. Lastly, I will discuss the prospects of using the MM-EnKF for hybrid forecasting. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: not available Type: text/calendar Size: 4478 bytes Desc: not available URL: -------------- next part -------------- _______________________________________________ SC-Seminar-announce mailing list SC-Seminar-announce at lists.fsu.edu https://lists.fsu.edu/mailman/listinfo/sc-seminar-announce From eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu Tue Feb 28 14:17:49 2023 From: eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu (eoas-seminar at lists.fsu.edu) Date: Tue, 28 Feb 2023 19:17:49 +0000 Subject: [Eoas-seminar] Fw: [EOAS-FAC] Zoom links to MET faculty candidate talk today In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: ________________________________ From: Eoas-faculty on behalf of Mark Bourassa via Eoas-faculty Sent: Tuesday, February 28, 2023 2:16 PM To: eoas-faculty at lists.fsu.edu Subject: Re: [EOAS-FAC] Zoom links to MET faculty candidate talk today The seminar today is of course in person. It will be in EOAS 1044 and it would be preferred that you attend in person. The talk is from 3:15 to 4:15. Regards, Mark On 2/28/2023 2:10 PM, Mark Bourassa via Eoas-faculty wrote: > Colleagues, > > Today's MET Faculty Candidate seminar is by Fiaz Ahmed from UCLA. The > zoom link is > > https://fsu.zoom.us/j/92867126069?pwd=NjNZRCt1K096S2trTlJnQlQyQlJnZz09 > > Regards, > Mark > > _______________________________________________ > Eoas-faculty mailing list > Eoas-faculty at lists.fsu.edu > https://lists.fsu.edu/mailman/listinfo/eoas-faculty _______________________________________________ Eoas-faculty mailing list Eoas-faculty at lists.fsu.edu https://lists.fsu.edu/mailman/listinfo/eoas-faculty -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: